A lot of banned people here.
The problem for both consoles is that new IPs this late in a generation have a pretty hard time to succeed. Heavy Rain did well (not awesome, but well) but then you have Alan Wake or ModNation Racers who did not sell that well. A new IP surely needs a great developer to make people aware. Like Rockstar with RDR.
IMO it is 50:50 for future new IPs like Agent and Project Kingdom. Crytek and Rockstar are two developers people get excited for. Let's see how they will perform.
So after 4 or 5 years respectivly, there are no software system-sellers left. Reach and GT5 did/will move systems, but not sooooo huge to be a turning point for this gen. So IMO it comes down to Kinect and Move as new hardware devices that might push consoles. Move started relatively slow and only had a minor affect on PS3 hardware. Kinect has a better shot at performing well and move consoles.
At the end of the day they will be VERY close (less than 10 million) difference. And that won't change any support for any console. You can't ignore a 50 million plus userbase as a independent developer. So only fanboys and nerds like us will care anyway.
Imagine not having GamePass on your console...
