kain_kusanagi said:
We are nearing the end of this generation. We maybe have one more full year of steady sales before all three consoles start rolling down the hill. Even if the PS3 is on the market a year longer, it won't be selling at the rate it is now. There's no evidence that the Xbox 360 will die earlier than the PS3 since it's holding strong too. Besides that, once the next generations starts nobody will care about the PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii anymore. |
I agree with the last statement, and to a degree the first, but absolutly not the second. Just like kain said, there is no evidence to support the fact that the 360 is going to phase out before the PS3. It depends on how you look at the evidence. PS3's peak sales were in 2009 (with the PS3 Slim release it sold 12.59 mil), but the 360 on the other hand is very likely to have it's peak sales this year (with the 360 Slim, the past record was 11.01 mil in 2008). So if 360 sales followed the traditional bell curve, with a tail, it's peak sales would be later then PS3's and since it came out before the PS3, that would imply that it has two more years on the market over the PS3. However, what is likely happening is that the 360's natural peak was in 2008, but it gets a second peak in 2010 due to the Slim. So where PS3 launched the Slim during peak PS3 popularity (and thus closing the gap to 5 million), Microsoft is releasing the Slim later into it's life, thus giving the console a wider range of high sales.
Anyway, if I get too technical, people will ignore my comment due to a lack of comprehension, so I will leave it at this; the PS3 could outsell the 360, but it would need some sort of an unnatural boast, something more then just a big game can do, something like the crazy 10 psp game with a PSP Go bundle, but if they do that so will Microsoft, and well thus Sony will not sell more PS3's then 360's. No matter what Sony does, Microsoft generates more profit off the 360 per console, and has deeper pockets, so Microsoft will counter everything Sony does, even the Slim!
Also, it's an interesting coment to make about the PS2 still selling well, however, it's the Wii, and not the PS3 that has a sale curve that is most similar to the PS2 sale curve. So expect Wii's to keep selling well even in 2015. PS3, and 360 are more likely to immitate Gamecube and X-Box 1 sales, which died off very quickly.
Actually, PS3 sales follow PSP sales extremely closely, so just look at the PSP, and that should be what PS3 sales will be like in 2 years. Honestly look at the sales graph with aligned launches, they are selling almost exactly as well.
The 360 is just selling unusually because since 2007 it's experienced a steady volume of sales, no bell curve pattern, which is unusual, and hard to directly compare with any other console.
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