Its time to admit it. PS3 will NEVER overtake 360.

[Michael-5]

maxer said:

In the PS3 vs XBOX360 war, I think motion controls are going to make or break the win. Here are a couple of my thoughts.

I think Kinect will steal the show (doh, I'm biassed probably), but let me tell you why:

1) Pre-order count (this is still VGchartz :P)

2) On our report of an interview with a Dutch Microsoft Executive on Kinect (who has also worked for Sony for over 5 years), he shows the difference of commitment between Sony and Microsoft. Microsoft is going full-out in promoting Kinect, booths everywhere, flyers everywhere (check your local store). Move is nowhere, only on big game conferences (or am I wrong?).

3) Hardcore gamers have been dissing the Wii for ages: Kinect is more techie/trekkie interesting thing that you can get away with in nerd-coolness

4) Casual gamers really love Kinect, all these girls that just love Dance Dance Central, Kinectimals et cetera: people that are currently never ever going to buy an xbox360 will do now. Viva pinata wasn't cutting it, but Kinect will (in my view). Seeing Mom-websites report on Kinect: very positive (huge impact?). Twitter-bieber-ish-girls: very positive

5) casuals will never buy a ps3 if the wii offer similar features (in their view) for $200 less

6) People that had a Kinect experience are going to share it with their friends (becuase Microsoft is posting their video on http://www.kinect.me/ ): viral social marketing to the max. Where is Sony? And don't forget, all the launchgames have an option to post your pics to facebook: this may account for viral effects post-launch if people are talking about: what are you doing on that picture?! - and the ones posting thier images on facebook are generally positive, otherwise there's no reason to post it. You trust your friends in purchasing decisions (marketing 101)... so Win for Microsoft!?

To sum up: hardcore gamers have an excuse to buy Kinect [futuristic tech savvy awesomeness (to some extent)], doubting casuals may now come to the xbox (and not the ps3), viral effects are huge (Microsoft is committed, and really on the sharing part of things). I really do think they figured the right strategy out.

What is your view on these arguments?

Basically your saying that the Kinect will outsell the Move because it's new, different, interesting, and because Microsoft is really pushing this peripheral by advertizing, and that VGChartz is tracking significantly More Pre-Orders for the Kinect Sports bundled Kinect then the Sports Package Move with Sports champions. I agree with everything, except #3, you can't generalize that. I know a lot of people who think the Kinect AND Move are a gimmick, where Wii is legitimate.

As for the Kinect on girls and Moms (#4), they will love Dance Central, but the Kinect 360 package is still $300. So I don't see the Kinect taking off for this reason too much. Just Dance was only a game on the Wii, and it managed to sell 4 million units, but at $300, I think Kinect won't push as well to girls and moms. I think whats going to happen is girlfriends and moms of guys with a Kinect 360 will learn about Dance Central and other sports games, and then tell their friends about it, but at least for the first year, Kinect will only have modest sales.

So I agree, and I think people should really look at your #1, 2, and 5 points in particular. #6 is also true, but not that big of a deal.