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Forums - Sales Discussion - Does anyone think PS3 can realistically get to second place?

MARCUSDJACKSON on 24 May 2010
CGI-Quality said:
Gilgamesh said:
kowenicki said:
Gilgamesh said:

I thought everyone would have accepted by now that the PS3 will surpass the X360 in WW sales. Did you not forget the X360 has a year start on the PS3, so the PS3 is going to keep selling more and more each year while the X360 will start slowing down and selling less and less each year. The PS3 is still $299 and $349, for most people that's still very expensive, once it get's down to $199 and less then we'll really be seeing PS3 shortages.

The next few years should look something like this (ending March 31st)

 

X360

2010: 9 million

2011: 7 million

2012: 5 million

There seems to be a rather large contradiction in your post.... 

The X360 already peaked in 2008 it's sold less in 2009 and will keep selling less every year, the PS3 has been consistently beating it's yearly hardware sales and will keep doing it till 2011.

But to what he's saying, your prediction numbers aren't reflecting your actual prediction. :P

yea. it should look something like this. not saying it's possible?

PS3

2010: 15 million

2011: 17 million

2012: 19 million



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The_God_of_War on 24 May 2010

As to whether it will happen during this generation I couldn't say. It's getting more likely by the month but MS have big plans. It would be a very late and completely irrelevant stage in the generation were it to ever happen. A classic pyrrhic victory.

Now overall as in LTD sales then yeah. A blind chimp with diabetes could see that.



  

amp316 on 24 May 2010

Easily.

Since I have been told several times over the last few years that the Wii is not in the same market as the PS3, second place doesn't seem to be a problem at all.



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SaviorX on 24 May 2010
Buzzi said:
Before the first next gen console is released? No.
LTD? yes, PS3 is the only console who can stay on market until 2013, nintendo e Microsoft will be forced to launch their consoles in 2011 or 2012.

LOL good one. We all know that 10 year plan is bull. PS4 is due in 2012-early 2013. I only say 2013 because Sony lost so much cash, and needs time to recoup.

I know the PS3's strength alone won't change much. http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=67430&page=1



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MARCUSDJACKSON on 24 May 2010
SaviorX said:
Buzzi said:
Before the first next gen console is released? No.
LTD? yes, PS3 is the only console who can stay on market until 2013, nintendo e Microsoft will be forced to launch their consoles in 2011 or 2012.

LOL good one. We all know that 10 year plan is bull. PS4 is due in 2012-early 2013. I only say 2013 because Sony lost so much cash, and needs time to recoup.

I know the PS3's strength alone won't change much. http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=67430&page=1


never know.



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Darth Tigris on 24 May 2010

I really don't think hardly anyone on this site really understand the potential of holiday 2010 for the 360. Many here have forgotten the situation in 2008 when the PS3 was only 6 million away and had a ton of momentum because of a 2007 price cut and huge marketing push. Then came September, the 360 dropped from $279 to $199 for the Arcade SKU and, before you knew, the lead was back up to 8 million.

You see that, folks. The 360 lead was down to around about 5 million and some 8 months later it was back up to 8 million.

Do you hear me? Ok, let me slow it down for you.

Sept 08 - May 09 - 360 lead went from 6 mil to 8.4 mil (360 price cut)
Sept 09 - May 10 - 360 lead went from 8 mil to 5 mil (PS3 price cut)

Its a pattern that repeats and we're on the PS3 growth cycle this time. Come this fall we WILL have Halo Reach, Fable III and 'Project Natal'. We may also have a Slim and a price cut. So what will that likely mean for the game industry? See pattern above. Rinse and repeat.

For the PS3 to truly secure 2nd place, we'd have to see something DRASTICALLY different than the pattern that has already been established this gen.



Darth Tigris on 24 May 2010
CGI-Quality said:
Darth Tigris said:
I really don't think hardly anyone on this site really understand the potential of holiday 2010 for the 360. Many here have forgotten the situation in 2008 when the PS3 was only 6 million away and had a ton of momentum because of a 2007 price cut and huge marketing push. Then came September, the 360 dropped from $279 to $199 for the Arcade SKU and, before you knew, the lead was back up to 8 million.

You see that, folks. The 360 lead was down to around about 5 million and some 8 months later it was back up to 8 million.

Do you hear me? Ok, let me slow it down for you.

Sept 08 - May 09 - 360 lead went from 6 mil to 8.4 mil (360 price cut)
Sept 09 - May 10 - 360 lead went from 8 mil to 5 mil (PS3 price cut)

Its a pattern that repeats and we're on the PS3 growth cycle this time. Come this fall we WILL have Halo Reach, Fable III and 'Project Natal'. We may also have a Slim and a price cut. So what will that likely mean for the game industry? See pattern above. Rinse and repeat.

For the PS3 to truly secure 2nd place, we'd have to see something DRASTICALLY different than the pattern that has already been established this gen.

Although you make good sense, we are hardly in a similar situation to 2008. The PS3 has a FAR greater library of titles, it's cheaper, and it's worldwide perception is no longer on the bottom of a shoe.

I too think Microsoft could pull off the win, but I wouldn't write off the PS3's chances either. Right now, it's anyone's Holiday to win (Microsoft or Sony). Nintendo doesn't even need mentioning (before anyone claims that some of us forgot that they exist) :P

But could perception of 'Project Natal' vs Move create a situation where worldwide perception changes again?  I know we can only talk theoretically about the initial and continued response (both critical and consumer) to either, but its obvious that currently Natal has the majority of interest.  E3 will ultimately set the stage for people's excitement, so we'll know more at that point on this subject.  Its really hard to predict how ANYTHING will play out with these two being thrown in the mix . . .



leo-j on 24 May 2010
nightsurge said:
TheNoobHolocaust said:

The real question is does anyone think it won't. The majority of the people on this site believe it will surpass 360 sometime within the next year or two.

Only because the vast majority of people on this site are Sony fans.

I don't think it will ever surpass the 360 LTD WW.

What's a sony fan to you? Because apparently if you don't dislike sony and don't dislike the ps3, you are a sony fan.. by your defintion..

as far as I AM CONCERNED the majority of this site is nintendo fan, specifically the mods/admins/contributers.



 

mM
leo-j on 24 May 2010

btw, I expect the PS3 to sell much more next year than it will this year, and potentially peak in 2012..

remember the ps3 is not $199 yet.. it still has its biggest sales yet to come



 

mM
Xoj on 24 May 2010

probable but won't be much difference in the end , if outselling it by 2-3 millions.

10 million though now that's an archivement