Forums - Sales Discussion - Does anyone think PS3 can realistically get to second place?

To MARCUSDJACKSON

Good response, and by all technicallities our opinions differ, but we are not professional industry analysts, nor do we know what Sony and Microsoft have kept secret until E3. I beleive that the PS3 outselling the 360 for one holiday season is not enough to beleive that Sony will continue this trend and sell more PS3's then Microsoft sells 360's. Sony had an amazing marketing strategy, a price cut, a PS3 Slim, and Uncharted 2 among other great games. They also managed to keep their lead. However Microsoft hasn't really responded to this, except for a few great exclusives Microsoft has not really done anything to directly retaliate against Sony's killer sales since last fall. I personally beleive that the Natal, Halo: Reach (among others), a price cut, and a rumoured platnium Live service, as well as a Slim 360 model will be Microsofts retaliation this fall, and I think the Natal will push 360 sales up. However we will only know for certain in half a year. Until then.

 

To GreyianStorm

That article you gave me was for February sales, and I never questioned PS3/360's past sales. I just mentioned that I do not feel Sony can keep it up.

As for media driven rumours, there is also a rumour that the Natal will cost $80. I am not saying to beleive in every rumour, however with Microsoft searching for engineers to make a smaller cooler motherboard, and various other hints at a Slim 360, it is something you should consider for future sales estimates. Natal/Move prices are simply speculations, with no supporting evidence, so those rumours should not be taken seriously. Regardless we will probably find out about those peripherals in a week.

 

To Pizzahut451

Nice name. Nintendo is making a lot of money per console, I know that. At launch they were making $50 per console, and this was confirmed by Nintendo and was shown in various IGN/VGChartz articles, and I beleive Bonus round on Gametrailers. Too lazy too look up that now. As for the Wii costing $100 to produce now, I beleive I heard that from Michael Patchner, and it kind of make sence. What is the Wii, but a slightly upgraded Gamecube, with Wii-motes?

I ignored PSN profits because compared to XBL profits they are minimal. Also talks about PSN service improving go hand in hand with XBL service improving. So comparing these two would be hard. Both improve profits, I don't argue that.

PS1 sold most of it's units at $199, but it's price dropped to $199 reletivly quickly. The PS1, PS2, and PS3 all show peak sales around the 3-5 year point, regardless of price, and I think thats a bigger factor to consider. New consoles don't sell as well because people wait for games and a price cut. Old consoles don't sell well because people know a successor is comming. A cheaper price is better, but I feel the age of the console is more relevant. Also due to inflation, a $199 PS1 is not relatable to a $199 Wii. So you can't really say that $199 is some magical price that makes consoles all of a sudden more popular. As for the $199 Arcade 360 outselling the Elite 360, 80% of 360 sales go to the mid range Pro edition, which isn't $199, so :P.

MGS4 rumour to me stuck me as some rumour that was spread in the forums, and only officially fueled by that MGS4 for Ipod teaser last year. So it's a bit different from the 360 Slim. As for PS3 Slim, I never heard rumours about that, except for forum rumours (Since there were PS1 and PS2 Slims).

As for Gran Turismo 5, I don't think it will sell as well as many PS3 fans (not fanboys, some of you guys are smart) think. Gran Turismo 1-4 have sold either close to, or over 10 million units each, but look at how much of an instal base they had. 135 million PS2's, and over 100 million PS1's! Thats like a 10% attach rate. Halo 1 sold 5 million units on a console with only 24 million units, thats over a 25% attach rate. Halo 2 sold 8 million units, thats a 33% attach rate. Halo 3 sold 11 million units, thats again over 25%. If Reach does as good as any other Halo, thats going to be 15 million units, more if the attach rate is closer to Halo 2. PS3 is not as popular as PS1 or PS2, and with a 10% attach rate, I feel you should only expect Gran Turismo 5 to sell more then 4 million units. Obviously it will do better then that since more "hardcore" gamers play PS3, but I doubt it will sell over 10 million units in the lifetime of the PS3. Thats my opinion, and the last paragraph gives a very logical and rational reasoning for it. I may be completly wrong, but I have a reasonable reason to beleive the way I do. Also GT1, and GT3 came out reletivly early into the PS1 and PS2 lifetime. They had time to accumulate sales, where GT5 is comming out mid-life. I bet a significant portion of race game fans (including me), have switched to Forza, which has improved in quality drastically since Forza 1.

As for Call of Duty (I also mentioned FIFA and PES for PS3), It probably won't boast sales that much, but it will slightly. I mentioned those games as a part of a list of games that would boast sales, at the end of a few great exclusives. I think new people buying consoles would prefer to play CoD, PES, FIFA, on the console their friends play it on, and since COD sales are significantly larger on 360's (due to the 360's american popularity), and vica versa for PES/FIFA, it will slightly boast sales. Not much, but just a nudge.

As for Halo Wars, it is a full Halo game, but it doesn't appeal to the more casual FPS Halo fanbase, where GT5 Prologue is of similar construct as Gran Turismo and will appeal to the average GT fan. So in regards to your prior arguement were Halo Reach is the 4th 360 Halo title, and Gran Turismo 5 is the first PS3 Gran Turismo title, you kind of have to include Prologue for the same reason you include Halo Wars. As for console pushing, yes GT5 probably will push more consoles then Halo Reach simply because it's the first GT5 game, however Halo Reach will still be a big pusher because not everyone got a 360 after Halo 3. I mean GT4 still pushed PS2's. Were going to have to wait and see on this one, but in my mind both Reach and GT5 are equal in terms of comparisions as console pushers. Arguing which will be better is pointless and leads no where.

ODST was an overglorified demo. A great demo, but it wasn't the 9.5 game Halo 1-3 were. It was something that was made to satisfy the Halo fans until a proper sequel was released. You know until the game actually came out, I wasn't sure if ODST was going to be a DLC for Halo 3, or a standalone game. It had a larger fanbase, but it wasn't a proper Halo game. This is the same reason why GT4 Prologue sold less then GT3, on a larger fanbase. Not a proper sequel.

Now you mention Halo 3 will remain the best selling Halo of this generation because it was the first Halo of this generation. Let me remind you that Halo 2 outsold Halo 1 on the X-Box. Modern Warfare 2 outsold Modern Warfare 1. There I just proved your theory can be falsified.

So my concluding remark on GT5 is that, the PS3 has a much smaller instal base then PS1 and PS2 (about a third). So it's very reasonable to beleive it will sell significantly less then Gran Turismo 1-4. Also Gran turismo 5 has a proper compeditor now (Forza 3), which will definatly steal many sales, and unlike GT1, and 3, GT5 is being released late into the consoles life, and this will cut sales. This is why I beleive the game will sell 6-8 million units.

Being the first Gran Turismo of the generation is not a valid reason as to why Gran Turismo 5 will outsell GT4, using Halo 1 and 2, and Modern Warfare 1 and 2 as counter examples. A more directly relatable counter example would be Forza 2 and 3. Although Forza 3 has sold less units overall, Forza 3 has outsold Forza 2 on a weekly basis from launch. So :P

I do my research, I don't just make wild accusations. I own Forza 1-3, Gran Turismo 1-4, and both a 360 and a PS3. This is how I feel, and I have given realistic data to back me up. So people, don't act shocked just because someone here is more confident of 360 sales over PS3 sales. Listen and learn.



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Michael-5 said:

To MARCUSDJACKSON

Good response, and by all technicallities our opinions differ, but we are not professional industry analysts, nor do we know what Sony and Microsoft have kept secret until E3. I beleive that the PS3 outselling the 360 for one holiday season is not enough to beleive that Sony will continue this trend and sell more PS3's then Microsoft sells 360's. Sony had an amazing marketing strategy, a price cut, a PS3 Slim, and Uncharted 2 among other great games. They also managed to keep their lead. However Microsoft hasn't really responded to this, except for a few great exclusives Microsoft has not really done anything to directly retaliate against Sony's killer sales since last fall. I personally beleive that the Natal, Halo: Reach (among others), a price cut, and a rumoured platnium Live service, as well as a Slim 360 model will be Microsofts retaliation this fall, and I think the Natal will push 360 sales up. However we will only know for certain in half a year. Until then.

 

To GreyianStorm

That article you gave me was for February sales, and I never questioned PS3/360's past sales. I just mentioned that I do not feel Sony can keep it up.

As for media driven rumours, there is also a rumour that the Natal will cost $80. I am not saying to beleive in every rumour, however with Microsoft searching for engineers to make a smaller cooler motherboard, and various other hints at a Slim 360, it is something you should consider for future sales estimates. Natal/Move prices are simply speculations, with no supporting evidence, so those rumours should not be taken seriously. Regardless we will probably find out about those peripherals in a week.

 

To Pizzahut451

Nice name. Nintendo is making a lot of money per console, I know that. At launch they were making $50 per console, and this was confirmed by Nintendo and was shown in various IGN/VGChartz articles, and I beleive Bonus round on Gametrailers. Too lazy too look up that now. As for the Wii costing $100 to produce now, I beleive I heard that from Michael Patchner, and it kind of make sence. What is the Wii, but a slightly upgraded Gamecube, with Wii-motes?

I ignored PSN profits because compared to XBL profits they are minimal. Also talks about PSN service improving go hand in hand with XBL service improving. So comparing these two would be hard. Both improve profits, I don't argue that.

PS1 sold most of it's units at $199, but it's price dropped to $199 reletivly quickly. The PS1, PS2, and PS3 all show peak sales around the 3-5 year point, regardless of price, and I think thats a bigger factor to consider. New consoles don't sell as well because people wait for games and a price cut. Old consoles don't sell well because people know a successor is comming. A cheaper price is better, but I feel the age of the console is more relevant. Also due to inflation, a $199 PS1 is not relatable to a $199 Wii. So you can't really say that $199 is some magical price that makes consoles all of a sudden more popular. As for the $199 Arcade 360 outselling the Elite 360, 80% of 360 sales go to the mid range Pro edition, which isn't $199, so :P.

MGS4 rumour to me stuck me as some rumour that was spread in the forums, and only officially fueled by that MGS4 for Ipod teaser last year. So it's a bit different from the 360 Slim. As for PS3 Slim, I never heard rumours about that, except for forum rumours (Since there were PS1 and PS2 Slims).

As for Gran Turismo 5, I don't think it will sell as well as many PS3 fans (not fanboys, some of you guys are smart) think. Gran Turismo 1-4 have sold either close to, or over 10 million units each, but look at how much of an instal base they had. 135 million PS2's, and over 100 million PS1's! Thats like a 10% attach rate. Halo 1 sold 5 million units on a console with only 24 million units, thats over a 25% attach rate. Halo 2 sold 8 million units, thats a 33% attach rate. Halo 3 sold 11 million units, thats again over 25%. If Reach does as good as any other Halo, thats going to be 15 million units, more if the attach rate is closer to Halo 2. PS3 is not as popular as PS1 or PS2, and with a 10% attach rate, I feel you should only expect Gran Turismo 5 to sell more then 4 million units. Obviously it will do better then that since more "hardcore" gamers play PS3, but I doubt it will sell over 10 million units in the lifetime of the PS3. Thats my opinion, and the last paragraph gives a very logical and rational reasoning for it. I may be completly wrong, but I have a reasonable reason to beleive the way I do. Also GT1, and GT3 came out reletivly early into the PS1 and PS2 lifetime. They had time to accumulate sales, where GT5 is comming out mid-life. I bet a significant portion of race game fans (including me), have switched to Forza, which has improved in quality drastically since Forza 1.

As for Call of Duty (I also mentioned FIFA and PES for PS3), It probably won't boast sales that much, but it will slightly. I mentioned those games as a part of a list of games that would boast sales, at the end of a few great exclusives. I think new people buying consoles would prefer to play CoD, PES, FIFA, on the console their friends play it on, and since COD sales are significantly larger on 360's (due to the 360's american popularity), and vica versa for PES/FIFA, it will slightly boast sales. Not much, but just a nudge.

As for Halo Wars, it is a full Halo game, but it doesn't appeal to the more casual FPS Halo fanbase, where GT5 Prologue is of similar construct as Gran Turismo and will appeal to the average GT fan. So in regards to your prior arguement were Halo Reach is the 4th 360 Halo title, and Gran Turismo 5 is the first PS3 Gran Turismo title, you kind of have to include Prologue for the same reason you include Halo Wars. As for console pushing, yes GT5 probably will push more consoles then Halo Reach simply because it's the first GT5 game, however Halo Reach will still be a big pusher because not everyone got a 360 after Halo 3. I mean GT4 still pushed PS2's. Were going to have to wait and see on this one, but in my mind both Reach and GT5 are equal in terms of comparisions as console pushers. Arguing which will be better is pointless and leads no where.

ODST was an overglorified demo. A great demo, but it wasn't the 9.5 game Halo 1-3 were. It was something that was made to satisfy the Halo fans until a proper sequel was released. You know until the game actually came out, I wasn't sure if ODST was going to be a DLC for Halo 3, or a standalone game. It had a larger fanbase, but it wasn't a proper Halo game. This is the same reason why GT4 Prologue sold less then GT3, on a larger fanbase. Not a proper sequel.

Now you mention Halo 3 will remain the best selling Halo of this generation because it was the first Halo of this generation. Let me remind you that Halo 2 outsold Halo 1 on the X-Box. Modern Warfare 2 outsold Modern Warfare 1. There I just proved your theory can be falsified.

So my concluding remark on GT5 is that, the PS3 has a much smaller instal base then PS1 and PS2 (about a third). So it's very reasonable to beleive it will sell significantly less then Gran Turismo 1-4. Also Gran turismo 5 has a proper compeditor now (Forza 3), which will definatly steal many sales, and unlike GT1, and 3, GT5 is being released late into the consoles life, and this will cut sales. This is why I beleive the game will sell 6-8 million units.

Being the first Gran Turismo of the generation is not a valid reason as to why Gran Turismo 5 will outsell GT4, using Halo 1 and 2, and Modern Warfare 1 and 2 as counter examples. A more directly relatable counter example would be Forza 2 and 3. Although Forza 3 has sold less units overall, Forza 3 has outsold Forza 2 on a weekly basis from launch. So :P

I do my research, I don't just make wild accusations. I own Forza 1-3, Gran Turismo 1-4, and both a 360 and a PS3. This is how I feel, and I have given realistic data to back me up. So people, don't act shocked just because someone here is more confident of 360 sales over PS3 sales. Listen and learn.

Good post, but I'd disagree on GT5.  Look at GT5:P sales - they are completely in line for GT5 to sell in line with it's predecessors assuming interest in the title hasn't wanned.

For certain titles install base isn't important - for example Halo - and I see no evidence that GT5 isn't in that bracket.  It will sell and if they fanbase don't have a PS3 then they'll buy one - same as when main series Halo titles launch.  I think you're on the wrong track looking at install base for GT5.  In actuallity, I think the PS2 install base became so high it's a mistake to overly attribute it to most sales of franchises on the platform.

The only way GT5 will sell less is if interest in the series has waned - hard to call but GT5:P sales and interest were high and it remains a hyped title so I'm going to take the view interest remains high enough for 10M- or if enough of the audience is on a 360 and don't want a PS3 now - this is possible but again I'm not convinced.

Right now, looking at the evidence - GoW3 looks on track to match previous titles with a much smaller install base for example - and in particular GT5, I think it's very likely it will sell very, very well indeed.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

It already is in second place if you align launch times!

But really these consoles are neck and neck. They are splitting their market right down the middle. Any lead one might have over the other is going to be minimal at the end of the generation.



Reasonable said:
Michael-5 said:

To MARCUSDJACKSON

Good response, and by all technicallities our opinions differ, but we are not professional industry analysts, nor do we know what Sony and Microsoft have kept secret until E3. I beleive that the PS3 outselling the 360 for one holiday season is not enough to beleive that Sony will continue this trend and sell more PS3's then Microsoft sells 360's. Sony had an amazing marketing strategy, a price cut, a PS3 Slim, and Uncharted 2 among other great games. They also managed to keep their lead. However Microsoft hasn't really responded to this, except for a few great exclusives Microsoft has not really done anything to directly retaliate against Sony's killer sales since last fall. I personally beleive that the Natal, Halo: Reach (among others), a price cut, and a rumoured platnium Live service, as well as a Slim 360 model will be Microsofts retaliation this fall, and I think the Natal will push 360 sales up. However we will only know for certain in half a year. Until then.

 

To GreyianStorm

That article you gave me was for February sales, and I never questioned PS3/360's past sales. I just mentioned that I do not feel Sony can keep it up.

As for media driven rumours, there is also a rumour that the Natal will cost $80. I am not saying to beleive in every rumour, however with Microsoft searching for engineers to make a smaller cooler motherboard, and various other hints at a Slim 360, it is something you should consider for future sales estimates. Natal/Move prices are simply speculations, with no supporting evidence, so those rumours should not be taken seriously. Regardless we will probably find out about those peripherals in a week.

 

To Pizzahut451

Nice name. Nintendo is making a lot of money per console, I know that. At launch they were making $50 per console, and this was confirmed by Nintendo and was shown in various IGN/VGChartz articles, and I beleive Bonus round on Gametrailers. Too lazy too look up that now. As for the Wii costing $100 to produce now, I beleive I heard that from Michael Patchner, and it kind of make sence. What is the Wii, but a slightly upgraded Gamecube, with Wii-motes?

I ignored PSN profits because compared to XBL profits they are minimal. Also talks about PSN service improving go hand in hand with XBL service improving. So comparing these two would be hard. Both improve profits, I don't argue that.

PS1 sold most of it's units at $199, but it's price dropped to $199 reletivly quickly. The PS1, PS2, and PS3 all show peak sales around the 3-5 year point, regardless of price, and I think thats a bigger factor to consider. New consoles don't sell as well because people wait for games and a price cut. Old consoles don't sell well because people know a successor is comming. A cheaper price is better, but I feel the age of the console is more relevant. Also due to inflation, a $199 PS1 is not relatable to a $199 Wii. So you can't really say that $199 is some magical price that makes consoles all of a sudden more popular. As for the $199 Arcade 360 outselling the Elite 360, 80% of 360 sales go to the mid range Pro edition, which isn't $199, so :P.

MGS4 rumour to me stuck me as some rumour that was spread in the forums, and only officially fueled by that MGS4 for Ipod teaser last year. So it's a bit different from the 360 Slim. As for PS3 Slim, I never heard rumours about that, except for forum rumours (Since there were PS1 and PS2 Slims).

As for Gran Turismo 5, I don't think it will sell as well as many PS3 fans (not fanboys, some of you guys are smart) think. Gran Turismo 1-4 have sold either close to, or over 10 million units each, but look at how much of an instal base they had. 135 million PS2's, and over 100 million PS1's! Thats like a 10% attach rate. Halo 1 sold 5 million units on a console with only 24 million units, thats over a 25% attach rate. Halo 2 sold 8 million units, thats a 33% attach rate. Halo 3 sold 11 million units, thats again over 25%. If Reach does as good as any other Halo, thats going to be 15 million units, more if the attach rate is closer to Halo 2. PS3 is not as popular as PS1 or PS2, and with a 10% attach rate, I feel you should only expect Gran Turismo 5 to sell more then 4 million units. Obviously it will do better then that since more "hardcore" gamers play PS3, but I doubt it will sell over 10 million units in the lifetime of the PS3. Thats my opinion, and the last paragraph gives a very logical and rational reasoning for it. I may be completly wrong, but I have a reasonable reason to beleive the way I do. Also GT1, and GT3 came out reletivly early into the PS1 and PS2 lifetime. They had time to accumulate sales, where GT5 is comming out mid-life. I bet a significant portion of race game fans (including me), have switched to Forza, which has improved in quality drastically since Forza 1.

As for Call of Duty (I also mentioned FIFA and PES for PS3), It probably won't boast sales that much, but it will slightly. I mentioned those games as a part of a list of games that would boast sales, at the end of a few great exclusives. I think new people buying consoles would prefer to play CoD, PES, FIFA, on the console their friends play it on, and since COD sales are significantly larger on 360's (due to the 360's american popularity), and vica versa for PES/FIFA, it will slightly boast sales. Not much, but just a nudge.

As for Halo Wars, it is a full Halo game, but it doesn't appeal to the more casual FPS Halo fanbase, where GT5 Prologue is of similar construct as Gran Turismo and will appeal to the average GT fan. So in regards to your prior arguement were Halo Reach is the 4th 360 Halo title, and Gran Turismo 5 is the first PS3 Gran Turismo title, you kind of have to include Prologue for the same reason you include Halo Wars. As for console pushing, yes GT5 probably will push more consoles then Halo Reach simply because it's the first GT5 game, however Halo Reach will still be a big pusher because not everyone got a 360 after Halo 3. I mean GT4 still pushed PS2's. Were going to have to wait and see on this one, but in my mind both Reach and GT5 are equal in terms of comparisions as console pushers. Arguing which will be better is pointless and leads no where.

ODST was an overglorified demo. A great demo, but it wasn't the 9.5 game Halo 1-3 were. It was something that was made to satisfy the Halo fans until a proper sequel was released. You know until the game actually came out, I wasn't sure if ODST was going to be a DLC for Halo 3, or a standalone game. It had a larger fanbase, but it wasn't a proper Halo game. This is the same reason why GT4 Prologue sold less then GT3, on a larger fanbase. Not a proper sequel.

Now you mention Halo 3 will remain the best selling Halo of this generation because it was the first Halo of this generation. Let me remind you that Halo 2 outsold Halo 1 on the X-Box. Modern Warfare 2 outsold Modern Warfare 1. There I just proved your theory can be falsified.

So my concluding remark on GT5 is that, the PS3 has a much smaller instal base then PS1 and PS2 (about a third). So it's very reasonable to beleive it will sell significantly less then Gran Turismo 1-4. Also Gran turismo 5 has a proper compeditor now (Forza 3), which will definatly steal many sales, and unlike GT1, and 3, GT5 is being released late into the consoles life, and this will cut sales. This is why I beleive the game will sell 6-8 million units.

Being the first Gran Turismo of the generation is not a valid reason as to why Gran Turismo 5 will outsell GT4, using Halo 1 and 2, and Modern Warfare 1 and 2 as counter examples. A more directly relatable counter example would be Forza 2 and 3. Although Forza 3 has sold less units overall, Forza 3 has outsold Forza 2 on a weekly basis from launch. So :P

I do my research, I don't just make wild accusations. I own Forza 1-3, Gran Turismo 1-4, and both a 360 and a PS3. This is how I feel, and I have given realistic data to back me up. So people, don't act shocked just because someone here is more confident of 360 sales over PS3 sales. Listen and learn.

Good post, but I'd disagree on GT5.  Look at GT5:P sales - they are completely in line for GT5 to sell in line with it's predecessors assuming interest in the title hasn't wanned.

For certain titles install base isn't important - for example Halo - and I see no evidence that GT5 isn't in that bracket.  It will sell and if they fanbase don't have a PS3 then they'll buy one - same as when main series Halo titles launch.  I think you're on the wrong track looking at install base for GT5.  In actuallity, I think the PS2 install base became so high it's a mistake to overly attribute it to most sales of franchises on the platform.

The only way GT5 will sell less is if interest in the series has waned - hard to call but GT5:P sales and interest were high and it remains a hyped title so I'm going to take the view interest remains high enough for 10M- or if enough of the audience is on a 360 and don't want a PS3 now - this is possible but again I'm not convinced.

Right now, looking at the evidence - GoW3 looks on track to match previous titles with a much smaller install base for example - and in particular GT5, I think it's very likely it will sell very, very well indeed.

Good point, but I still disagree, for two main reasons.

1. The majority of Gran Turismo sales are to Casual gamers. So it's sales are more relatable to Mario Kart then God of War, and well lets look at the figures. There are 70 million Wii's and Mario Kart Wii sold roughly 21 million units, and there are 21 million Gamecubes. and Mario Kart: Double Dash sold roughly 7 million units. 3.5 times as many consoles, and 3 times as many sales. Gran Turismo is part of the same trend, GT3 and 4 outsold GT1 and 2 by roughly the same ratio of console and game sales, where PS2 was the better selling console. If this were the only factor GT5 would only sell roughly 4 million units, and I'm pretty sure this will outsell GT5 Prologue. So there are other factors involved.

2. Gran Turismo 1 and 3 are the best selling Gran Turismo titles in the franchise, and they were released early into their respective consoles lifetime. The reason these games sold so well is because they had time to accumulate sales. Mainstream racing titles, such as Gran Turismo and Forza, do not initially sell that well, but continuously sell at a moderatly high sales rate, and over time, it accumuates. Don't beleive me? Take a look yourself, Forza 3 is selling roughly as well (if not better) then GT3, and in a year that only ammounts to 3 million sales (GT3 finished with nearly 15 million. Gran Turismo 2 and 4 sold roughly 10 million units and were released about 5 years into the consoles lifespan. PS3 has been around since 2006, so if it's sales history were to match any prior Gran Turismo title, they would match GT2 and 4 sales. However, assumeing there are roughly 40 million PS3's by the end of 2010, this would mean that 1 in 4 PS3 owners would have to buy Gran Turismo 5. I severly doubt this will happen because except for Mario Kart, no racing game has ever had an attach rate so high.

So my estimates of 6-8 million total sales are completly reasonable, if you ask me.

You cannot compare Gran Turismo sales with God of War because God of War is mainly a game that appeals to a hardcore audience. Halo which appeals to both hardcore and casual gamers, sales rates are directly related to the number of consoles it is available on, so your comparision with Halo only supports my arguement. (Halo 1, 5 million, Halo 2, 8 million, Halo 3, 11 million, and for each Halo there were more X-Box's present).

As for Gran Turismo popularity going down, that is also an important factor to consider. Many hardcore racing game fans (such as myself), must have purchased a 360 for the sheer number of 360 exclusive racing titles (Forza Motorsport 2 and 3, Project gotham Racing 3 and 4, Test Drive Unlimited, Race Pro, etc). Older Gran Turismo titles were released close to launch, GT5 took a long time to develop. Also, compeditors for Gran Turismo (namely Forza Motorsport and Need for Speed), have improved drastically in game quality since the PS1 and PS2 days. Many of Gran Turismo sales may have been transfered over. Good point, and to me this is a third reason why Gran Turismo 5 will not sell anywhere nearly as well as prior installments.



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I am sure of it. Next year PS3 will be 2nd.



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Final install base of PS1 and PS2 is irrelevant, because the back ends of those generations were occupied by GT 2 and 4, while 1 and 3 are the games that sold better, releasing to smaller install bases.  Sales of GT 1 and 3 were probably cut off somewhat by releases of 2 and 4 respectively.  I doubt GT6 will be released for PS3, or if it is, it will be at least 3 years after GT5 is released, giving GT5 ample time with a sizable install base.  And looking at the sales of Prologue and considering how vastly improved GT5 will be -- over Prologue, and yes, over Forza 3 -- there's really no reason to think GT5 won't reach 8 million. 

GT sells mostly to casuals?  Try, and ultra hardcore racing fans.  You need to meet up with the 360 fan on this site who just today posted that GT5 will fail because it's not hardcore enough for the hardcore fans that have traditionally bought GT games.... between the two of you, GT5 can't win it seems.  Until it does.

And face it, Sony's Halo equivalent (though slightly bigger than Halo) hasn't seen a full release on PS3 yet.



Loud_Hot_White_Box said:

Final install base of PS1 and PS2 is irrelevant, because the back ends of those generations were occupied by GT 2 and 4, while 1 and 3 are the games that sold better, releasing to smaller install bases.  Sales of GT 1 and 3 were probably cut off somewhat by releases of 2 and 4 respectively.  I doubt GT6 will be released for PS3, or if it is, it will be at least 3 years after GT5 is released, giving GT5 ample time with a sizable install base.  And looking at the sales of Prologue and considering how vastly improved GT5 will be -- over Prologue, and yes, over Forza 3 -- there's really no reason to think GT5 won't reach 8 million. 

GT sells mostly to casuals?  Try, and ultra hardcore racing fans.  You need to meet up with the 360 fan on this site who just today posted that GT5 will fail because it's not hardcore enough for the hardcore fans that have traditionally bought GT games.... between the two of you, GT5 can't win it seems.  Until it does.

That second comment is insulting. I have a PS3, and a 360. I am far less biased then most, anyway...

Instal base is very important to racing games like Gran Turismo. GT1,2, and 4 all sold roughly 10 million units, the only one to stick out is GT3 which sold almost 15 million units. GT3 came out a year after the PS2 launched and by that time PS2 already had 20 million owners, with a stronger sales rate then PS3 and 360. Initially it sold moderatly well, worse then Forza 3, but in the 5 years until GT4 came out, it's sales accumulated, and by 2006 PS2 was a roughly 100 million unit console. PS3 will never see figures that high, and an attach rate of 15% (GT3's attach rate, the highest of all the Gran Turismo titles), is far more realistic then a 20-25% attach rate many PS3 owners on this website seem to beleive Gran Turismo 5 will somehow get.

The fact of the matter is no racing game, EVER, has had an attach rate that high with the exception of Mario Kart (30% ish). It doesn't matter it this game gets 10/10, it's just not going to sell that well.

You also bring into the subject of Gran Turismo 6, and the duration of time GT5 has to accumulate sales. It's 2010 now, the 360 came out in 2005, and PS3 in 2006. Until this generation the average lifespan of a console was 5-6 years. Now this generation is obviously going to outlast prior generations, but by how much? Wii sales are starting to come down now, and thats the leader in sales this gen. We're already over the hill, many analysts estimate that the next generation of consoles will arrive by 2012-2013. So nevermind the 5 years GT3 had to sell 15 million units, GT5 will at most get 3 before the next generation of consoles arrive.

Now as for your insulting comments, why do you have to mention GT5 being superior to Forza 3? Thats just a very biased and fanboyism response. Why should I bother responding to your comments when you clearly have a heavy bias towards Sony. I mean look at your sig, it's comparing PS3 games over 90 metascore, vs 360 (P.S. More 360 games have 9.5 then PS3 :P).

As for this ultra hardcore crowd of GT5 fans, that probably ammount to 2 million people at most, I only commented that most of the sales will appeal to casual gamers. This is why GT5 is more comparable to Mario Kart instead of God of War. Do you not think Mario Kart doesn't have it's ultra hardcore fans? I bet it has more then Forza and GT combined.

Now your last paragraph just shows severve bias and ignorance. I have both consoles, and all I am saying in these comments is that GT5 will not sell as well as most people on this website think. 8 million is reasonable, and I might add a bit generous. 10 million is very difficult on a console with only 35 million units out now.



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Can it? Maybe. Either way it goes, it's still awesome for MS to have come in and have done this, and complete bullocks for Sony to waste a huge 2 generation (PS1-PS2) domination lead.



To: Loud Hot White Box

Also as a side note, Gran Turismo for PSP sold only 700,000 units. It's true it received a poor rating, however i still beleive any die hard racing fan, or die hard Gran Turismo fan would have still bought it if they owned a PSP. If I owned a PSP, I probably would have, especially since all the cars I unlock in that game are uploadable to GT5.

Why did that game sell soo poorly, but prior Gran Turismo games do well?

I just think it's unreasonable to assume GT5 will sell as well as it's predicessors, and I beleive the PS3 only having (after a couple years), half as many consoles as PS1 and a third as many consoles as PS2, makes a big difference.

It will be an epic game, it will outself Forza and all other compeditors, and most likely receive a better review score as well. I still personally prefer Forza (I have both a PS3 and 360), but that doesn't matter. I am doing my best to give an unbaised opinion, unlike most people here. I mean Grand Thieft Auto on PS2 also sold more then double it did on PS3. Yes GTA4 is also available on 360, unlike GT, but Forza is a serious and respectable compeditor, and has had over 3 years to win over current gen gamers (Since Forza 2). Grand Thieft Auto was also available on X-box 1 too.

I mean, all the evidence I see point to GT5 selling less then any other console Gran Turismo, just look at other PS3 exclusives. FinalFantasy X - 7.95 million, Final Fantasy X-2 5.21 million, Final Fantasy XII - 5.69 million, Final Fantasy XIII - probably 4.5 million in the end, Metal Gear Solid 2 (featuring Raiden, and getting a poorer review), 5.58 million, MGS5 under 5 million (while being bundled at launch), etc. It's not just Sony big exclusives that follow this pattern, Halo, Mario Kart, Mrio Party, GTA, they all follow this pattern!

Even Gran Turismo itself (the franchise in question), sold significantly more copies on PS2 then PS1. GT 3 sold 14.89 million, while GT1 sold 10.85 million, thats 27% less! GT 4 sold 10.54 million units, while GT2 sold 9.37 million units, which is still 11% less. Remember PS2 sold (to date) 136.56 million units, and PS1 sold 102.49 million units, thats a 25% difference in consoles, and wait GT3 and GT1 have a 27% difference? This is not a coincidence! however if I just did this math straight, GT5 would only sell about 5.4 million units. I give it the credit to beleive it will do more, 6 million is reasonable, 8 million is generous, and 10 million is more then Gran Turismo 2! Which is ridiculous to me!

So I have given you, and all others sufficient reasoning to beleive GT5 will not dominate. It will become the best selling exclusive PS3 title, but thats only a 5 million jump. Maybe it will outsell GTA, and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, but thats still under 10 million, and I think Modern Warfare 2 is unbeatable (HD console wise).

If you can't give a more sufficient reason then "Because I said so, because your a dumb fanboy who doesn't understand economics," Then don't bother responding.



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