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Forums - Sales Discussion - Does anyone think PS3 can realistically get to second place?

Michael-5 said:

I'm so full of it? Please don't be insulting, I am making a very logical and valid arguement.

I never said "Barely 30,000", I said roughly 30,000 a week. Don't put words into my mouth, there is a difference. I have been keeping track of PS3 vs 360 sales on a weekly basis since at least August 2009. Since January I have noticed the PS3 has been leading in sales over the 360 between 20,000 to 50,000 units a week. Depending heavily on game releases.

To the end of May, PS3 has sold 4 million units worldwide, 360 has sold 3 million units worldwide (according to VGChartz YTD's, as of now). That is a period of 5 months to account for a 1 million sales difference. Thats 22 weeks roughly, and 1 million divided by 22 is 45,000. More then 30,000, however you have to account the strong Spring lineup PS3 had over the 360, specifically God of War 3. Okay 30,000 is a bit off, 40,000 is a more reasonable estimate, but I did say roughly, and I in all honesty feel that this difference will diminish during fall 2010.

On Gametrailers (and I think in a news article somewhere on GT, but also from Michael Patchner), Michael Patchner stated that the new model PS3's give Sony a $30 profit at the $300 price margin. Thats 10%, which is small, Nintendo is probably making over $100 per console, and 360 is somewhere inbetween. Microsoft can afford another price drop, and still make profit on each system sold. It may only be $5 profit, or 1 penny, but still. If Sony made a price cut, they would lose money per console, just as they have been doing almost during the entire PS3 lifetime.

As for Sony's Prenium PSN service, Microsoft is also likely to release a Platnium service pack for XBL, and how is this relevant to a consoles sales??

Also, Every system gets most of it's sales at the $199 price point. Oh man, SHOW ME WHERE YOU FOUND THIS OUT!! Michael Patchner stated that Microsoft sells about 80% of it's units at the medium range price point ($299), and that only about 10% buy the $199 arcade model, and 10% buyt the $399 Elite model. If most consoles get their sales at the $199 point, then this shouldn't be happening! However it is, so...your statement is false.

I'm not trying to insilt you, but you seem to be making up your arguements. PS3 is a great console, I have one, and a 360. I just don't think the PS3 will become number 2 in sales. I beleive this because Microsoft is a corperate demon. They will not allow PS3's console to outsell the 360, even if it means giving away 360 consoles. Microsoft has the money to do this, and it is crutial for their system to remain in position number 2 to keep up their reputation for the next generation of consoles.

MGS4 on 360 was a rumor created in forums, a 360 Slim is a media originated rumor, and unlike the MGS4-360 rumor, it has evidence to back it up. Please don't compare the two, as they have a completly different background. You can however compare the 360 Slim rumour to the FFXIII and FFXIII Versus being multi console rumors as those were originated in the media, and hang on...FFXIII is on 360 too right??

Microsoft will definatly do some sort of price cut, and Natal package. Like I said they are a corporate demon. They will do anything to stay ontop, and they have room for a price cut. I feel they will, after all they are trying to attract Wii gamers to the Natal.

As for Japan/Europe >>>> Americas, first of all 23 million/40 million 360's are sold in Americas, so for 360, that is not the case. Also in many European, and asian countries, 360 outsells the PS3. Countries like Britain and Korea (On VgChartz, just compare hardware total and look on the right). Now in Japan, PS3 has sold 5.2 million units, and 360 has sold 1.3 million, where DS is over 30 million. Japan is a dominatly handheld market, it doesn't really affect PS3/360 sales much.

So for PS3, Europe > Americas > Japan, but for 360 Americas > Europe and Japan combined. The important thing is total sales, not just regional. In europe, both consoles have sold roughly the same number of total units, and if Microsoft blows everyone away this fall (which I think they will), that could change.

Another point PS3/360 regional totals - Japan is 6.5 million, Europe is 31.5 million, Americas is 37.2 million. Europe Japan is 38 million, just above the americas total. I think Microsoft holding American popularity, especially at a ratio of 1.75 to 1 is a very important factor. With the Natal, price cut, and selection of great games comming out, I think Microsoft will pull itself out of this slump.

It may not, but I have given numerous valid arguements supporting my claim, your just bashing me because my points oppose your feelings.

Ok, lets start with your first few paragraphs

I see you did your homework, and as you can see, PS3 is outselling xbox by more than just 30k a week,so there is no need to argue here. And yes, the gap will change in holiday '10, the question is, for Sony's favour or MS's favour. Only time will tell. 

 

And that interview was before 40mm chips came out 1 month ago. These new chips will probably reduce manufacturing costs even more and make even more money for Sony which MAY translates into a price drop in the future. And NINTENDO IS MAKING 100$ PER CONSOLE?????????????? Where the hell did you read that? So Wii manufacturing cost is only 100$???? And PSN profits are not irelevant to console sales but they are relevant to Sony on starting making money on SCEI once again,which will enable Sony to cut the price.

 

Also, PS1,PS2, (and most likely wii) all sold most units when they were 199$.Go do a little research. And the other guy in thread posted the graph where it shows that Arcade (199$) is outselling Elite (299$) in US.

 

MGS4 rumor also had tons of articles on internet and some leaked photos. Just like xbox slim and PS3 slim.

 

Your problem is that you think that MS is gonna be the only one who is gonna do some working in holiday '10 and that their competitors will do nothing. Gran Turismo 5 will probably outsell every xbox game in holiday '10 except MAYBE Halo Reach.

 

As for your last couple of paragraphs, you completly misunderstood my point. I said that Europe and Japan together are bigger markets than US. That means that more video game consoles are sold there then in US. Oh wait, you actually proved my point in your 10th paragraph so there no need to argue. Thanks.



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well in Europe the PS3 is doing best (thats because the Europeen are srcewed in the head, they'll buy anything that says "best ..... (grafix)" or "fastes ......" or "prestige", and thats what the PS3 is lookes like to a lot of dudes in the EU area)

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I do beleve, that the Wii could be making "100$/console" sales, just look at how "old" the core-hardware really is (hell, they might even be making more...)

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but things just might change between the PS3 and the 360er, when they're "motion" stuff comes out:

will the casual gamers be attracted enough to the natal, it seems "new" (even if they've already got a Wii)?

will the core gamers be attracted enough to the Sony core games with new motion controlles... (dont think it will be as attracted for casual gamers, its really just the same as on the wii, nothing "new")



it probly can but it will be to late by then



PLAYSTATION®3 is the future.....NOW.......B_E_L_I_E_V_E

consoloid said:

well in Europe the PS3 is doing best (thats because the Europeen are srcewed in the head, they'll buy anything that says "best ..... (grafix)" or "fastes ......" or "prestige", and thats what the PS3 is lookes like to a lot of dudes in the EU area)

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I do beleve, that the Wii could be making "100$/console" sales, just look at how "old" the core-hardware really is (hell, they might even be making more...)

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but things just might change between the PS3 and the 360er, when they're "motion" stuff comes out:

will the casual gamers be attracted enough to the natal, it seems "new" (even if they've already got a Wii)?

will the core gamers be attracted enough to the Sony core games with new motion controlles... (dont think it will be as attracted for casual gamers, its really just the same as on the wii, nothing "new")

Motion control on the wii is very two-dimensional, whereas the use of a camera instead of an IR sensor bar gives you depth and the opportunity to design different, innovative control schemes.

MotionPlus is an attempt at padding the shortcomings of the system, and while it helps, a completely different technology should indeed bring some novelty.

It will be up to the devs to make it happen.



probably, If it keeps at this pace.



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Michael-5 said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:
Michael-5 said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:
Smashed said:
Darth Tigris said:
I really don't think hardly anyone on this site really understand the potential of holiday 2010 for the 360. Many here have forgotten the situation in 2008 when the PS3 was only 6 million away and had a ton of momentum because of a 2007 price cut and huge marketing push. Then came September, the 360 dropped from $279 to $199 for the Arcade SKU and, before you knew, the lead was back up to 8 million.

You see that, folks. The 360 lead was down to around about 5 million and some 8 months later it was back up to 8 million.

Do you hear me? Ok, let me slow it down for you.

Sept 08 - May 09 - 360 lead went from 6 mil to 8.4 mil (360 price cut)
Sept 09 - May 10 - 360 lead went from 8 mil to 5 mil (PS3 price cut)

Its a pattern that repeats and we're on the PS3 growth cycle this time. Come this fall we WILL have Halo Reach, Fable III and 'Project Natal'. We may also have a Slim and a price cut. So what will that likely mean for the game industry? See pattern above. Rinse and repeat.

For the PS3 to truly secure 2nd place, we'd have to see something DRASTICALLY different than the pattern that has already been established this gen.

You completely IGNORED the games coming out for PS3 this year, didn't you?

You want to talk moving consoles? Talk Gran Turismo 5.

As if Halo Reach will sell MONSTER consoles, right on there bud. Most people who are getting Reach already owned a 360 to begin with, it will only get it's boost off bundles. Fable III will move some consoles, how much do you think a Fable game is really going to move, is the game going to be ground breaking?

You completely also ignored one of Sony's biggest things this year, Move.

Or did you just forget them?


living in the past are we Darth Tigris? current trends will decide this race. im sure sony will only counter a price drop. although it may not be wise. hey everybody. it's time to play chess. the board is the 2010 holiday season. heres my take on it.

holiday season console sells

PS3 10m

360 7m

 

 


In 2009, when Sony's price cut/PS3 Slim happened Microsoft also had a price cut, and a selection of great titles too. Halo 3: ODST, Left 4 Dead 2, a 360 favoured Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, Mass Effect 2 (I know it came out in January), Forza Motorsport 3, and Grand Theft Auto: Episodes from Liberty City. Still it's sales suffered. Sony just had more, the PS3 Slim, Uncharted 2, FF XIII in Japan, and a PS3 favoured FIFA and PES. The key factor, the PS3 Slim.

In 2008, when Microsoft had a significant sale gain, Sony had some great fall titles too. Resistance 2, LittleBig Planet, a PS3 favoured PES, and FIFA, and Motorstorm: Pacific Rift. However Microsoft had a lot more, Gears of War 2, Left 4 Dead, a 360 favoured Call of duty: World at War, and Fallout 3, and Fable 2.

Sales fluctuate! Darth Tigris is making a very valid and logical point. This Fall Microsoft will not only sell more 360's then Sony will sell PS3's, but I think it will increase it's lead back to 8 million by next fall.

Yes PS3 has Move, but listen to Michael Pachner. It's probably going to sell 1:5 as many units compared to Microsofts Natal. Also Microsoft will most likely price the Natal under $100 to compete with the Move. Gamewise, Microsoft has more, but Sony had an amazing spring. Sony has Gran Turismo 5, and hopefully the Last Guardian too. Microsoft has Halo: Reach, Fable 3, and probably a Left 4 Dead 3 (lol!). However the key factor is Natal, and a 360 Slim. Thats what ushed Sony ahead last year, I don't understand how it won't push 360 up this year.

Comparing Halo and Gran Turismo as console pushers, is just fanboyism. So I'm just going to name some key factors. Both franchises sell games always getting 9.5/10 or higher. There already is a Halo 3 on 360, so it's a valid arguement to think it won't push too many newcomers to the 360 since they came by in 2007. However, there was also a GT5 Prologue.

Another valid arguement is stating the sales factor with respect to the amount of consoles sold. Halo 2 sold 8 million units on a system with only 24 million sold. Thats 1/3. GT4 was the best selling GT game which sold 15 million units on a system with 140 million units. Thats a little over 1/10. Halo 3 sold 11/40 which is 1/4, still good. So following this logic, GT5 may only sell 4-6 million units. Thats not that much more then Forza Motorsport 3, so is this a big deal? We will see later in the year.

So logically, 360 will outsell the PS3 this fall for the same reasons 360 outsold the PS3 in 2007, 2008, and for the same reasons PS3 outsold the 360 in 2009. The real question is, will it continue to outsell 360's over PS3's in 2011? Depends if Natal takes off,if Natal is as popular as the Wii....well then Sony will never catch up.

I lovethe PS3, 360, Wii, DS, and PSP (not PC :(), and I am just looking at this reasonably.

P.S. MarcusDJackson, current trends change, until last August the 360 was consistantly outselling the PS3. That changed right?

The only continuous trend is that, the console with the better games/upgrades will lead the holiday in terms of sales. 360 Slim plus Natal beat the PS3 Move, and arguably Halo, Gears, L4D3, Fable 3, and a 360 favoured CoD are better then GT5, The Last Guardian, and a PS3 favoured PES, and FIFA. 2006-2008 that was, technically Wii, but in this arguement 360, and 2009 was PS3. One PS3 won fall battle does not win the console war


not listening to  Michael Pachner sounds better. i kow one PS3 fall battle doesn't win the war. nintendo has that on lock. and you made alot of sence, but i just don't see something that happend two yr's ago as being a argument.

if thats the case then i can only assume that because the PS2 won the sixth gen PS3 will win the seventh. there are to many unnones and everything being said is based on speculation. lets not use logic cause i can say because PS3 out sold 360 last yr then it's only logical that it would do it again this yr. 

That's not logical. You can't just say because PS3 outsold the 360 last year, that it will do it again. Logic is baised on facts. Why did PS3 all of a sudden become more popular in 2009? What are the factors? Why was Microsoft more popular in 2007, and 2008? What are the factors? Then match these factors to 2010. Well 360 is releasing Natal, and PS3 is releasing the Move. Baised on many analyst preditctions, this will push 360 sales, but how much? Games, and a price cut also help, and those factors existed in 2007-2009. 3 years ago is not a long time ago.

In the end, I am just making speculations. I am not trying to make you guys agree with me, I am just making a valid arguement, which everyone should take into consideration. It's rude just saying one console will do better, without any evidence to back up that claim.


didn't say one will do better than the other. i wish them both blessed sells and continued support. i've made my predictions based on others. what i beleave is just that, but i wouldn't go as far as to say it will happen. i can't see into the future so there would be no need for me to say one will do better than the other.

the only prediction i can make is that no mater what happens. i will buy games, and thats all that matters to me.



poroporo said:

Motion control on the wii is very two-dimensional, whereas the use of a camera instead of an IR sensor bar gives you depth and the opportunity to design different, innovative control schemes.

Camera isn't an optimal solution for actual screen pointing though.  Due to the "glowing ball" setup, the PSEye can't actually tell where exactly the Move wand is pointing... to calculate angle it uses data from the gyroscope and accelerometers, which is why it's so laggy (seen in RE5, The Shoot, etc) compared to Wii's IR/camera setup.

The main advantage for a stationary camera is in "augmented reality" applications like Move Party or WarioWare Snapped.  



jarrod said:
poroporo said:

Motion control on the wii is very two-dimensional, whereas the use of a camera instead of an IR sensor bar gives you depth and the opportunity to design different, innovative control schemes.

Camera isn't an optimal solution for actual screen pointing though.  Due to the "glowing ball" setup, the PSEye can't actually tell where exactly the Move wand is pointing... to calculate angle it uses data from the gyroscope and accelerometers, which is why it's so laggy (seen in RE5, The Shoot, etc) compared to Wii's IR/camera setup.

The main advantage for a stationary camera is in "augmented reality" applications like Move Party or WarioWare Snapped.  


Well hopefully the response time is not gamebreaking. Perhaps they should've gone with a different shape then, there's no reason not to do it.



well, SOCOM 4 was just perfect, people said that the controls are even more sensible than wiimote. The advantage of the Move is that the pointer will not disappear if you aim out of screen like Wii, because the camera will still be viewing the controlller.



Onibaka said:

well, SOCOM 4 was just perfect, people said that the controls are even more sensible than wiimote. The advantage of the Move is that the pointer will not disappear if you aim out of screen like Wii, because the camera will still be viewing the controlller.

This was actually one of my biggest gripes the first time I tried playing an FPS game on the Wii over three years ago which was unfortunate since FPS games were among those I was expecting to see enhanced by pointer/motion controls.

Eventually I'd say developers found ways to work around this handicap, but for me it was a bit too little too late by the time it happened as I had already accepted standard controls for FPS games and had little to no desire to replay CoD4 with Wii controls two years after being done with the game, or to play mediocre examples of FPS games such as The Conduit just to play FPS games on the Wii given that the controls were about the only thing that game had going for it.

I'm willing to give Move another shot with motion based FPS controls, but if it doesn't sharpen the experience and enhance accuracy and response times, I'll probably end up just sticking with a control pad once again in the future.