If Natal flops I think its inevitable.

Realistically I think it could, but people have to remember that realistically this is one of the hardest gens to predict.

I think it could go either way really, just depends on what happens...

if current trends keep continuing then its possible.

Sure. I imagine it all has to do with when the first next generation console releases.

With its current speed it should eventually surpase the 360 is this generation lasts a while longer. But a better question would be: does second place matter when your this close to each other? Because the way I see it, Microsoft proved that they can compete with Sony even if Sony eventually takes lead with 5+ million consoles.

This might not be such a hard achievement given that Sony dropped the bom this gen but Microsoft also had the struggle with the red ring fiasco. I think many people today refuse to get a 360 because of it.

All in all Microsoft did what it set out to do this gen, they are in it for the long run anyway. Having said that Natal and the PS Move could seriously change the gaming landscape. Done well it could have the same impact as the start of a new generation.

I believe the outcome of the battle between the Xbox and the PS3 will be finally decided this year, with the release of Natal and Move (awesome name!). If Natal can do for the Xbox what the Slim did for the PS3, Xbox will most likely end up on top. But if Natal fails to stir the imagination of the people, PS3 will sail past the Xbox with its much higher momentum.

It will be a very intersting battle. Currently I'd say that the odds are stacked in favor of the PS3.

this years holiday is probably the decider .. if the 360 somehow manages to keep it's lead or even widens the gap the PS3 won't catch it any day soon

if on the other hands PS3 closes in by another ~1m+ this year it should be able to pass 360 sales in 2011 or early 2012

I realistically can't see this not happening and probably even during Sony's current fiscal year.

Taking equal timeframes (which is still unfair to the PS3 as the XBox 360 had not 1 but 2 extra holiday seasons in Europe and other PAL regions) the PS3 outsold the XBox 360 by 5.5 million already! Last quarter the gap was only 4.47 million, this with PS3 shortages (and 360 again overshipped) and meanwhile this gap has only been shrinking.

This while Microsoft did everything in their might to sell better, quickly killing the original XBox, mass misinformation and propaganda spreading with regard to its rivals, in 2008 the 360 was priced in Europe as low as 119 Euro including taxes for the holidays, they bought many Japanese exclusives (for a system almost nobody cares about) and they nearly killed their PC gaming division by making their popular PC franchices including Halo XBox exclusive.

The last straw seems to be Natal and they hyped this up by faking Milo presentations. And it is probably going to underliver compared to what was promised.

It has a very good chance, right now ps3 and 360 has a shot to keep 2nd place for this GEN thats why this year they have to play their cards carefully.

ps3 will get to second eventually, but it is reliant on the natal not selling millions of x360's and the successs of gt5:):)