CGI-Quality said:
Darth Tigris said:
I really don't think hardly anyone on this site really understand the potential of holiday 2010 for the 360. Many here have forgotten the situation in 2008 when the PS3 was only 6 million away and had a ton of momentum because of a 2007 price cut and huge marketing push. Then came September, the 360 dropped from $279 to $199 for the Arcade SKU and, before you knew, the lead was back up to 8 million.
You see that, folks. The 360 lead was down to around about 5 million and some 8 months later it was back up to 8 million.
Do you hear me? Ok, let me slow it down for you.
Sept 08 - May 09 - 360 lead went from 6 mil to 8.4 mil (360 price cut)
Sept 09 - May 10 - 360 lead went from 8 mil to 5 mil (PS3 price cut)
Its a pattern that repeats and we're on the PS3 growth cycle this time. Come this fall we WILL have Halo Reach, Fable III and 'Project Natal'. We may also have a Slim and a price cut. So what will that likely mean for the game industry? See pattern above. Rinse and repeat.
For the PS3 to truly secure 2nd place, we'd have to see something DRASTICALLY different than the pattern that has already been established this gen. |
Although you make good sense, we are hardly in a similar situation to 2008. The PS3 has a FAR greater library of titles, it's cheaper, and it's worldwide perception is no longer on the bottom of a shoe.
I too think Microsoft could pull off the win, but I wouldn't write off the PS3's chances either. Right now, it's anyone's Holiday to win (Microsoft or Sony). Nintendo doesn't even need mentioning (before anyone claims that some of us forgot that they exist) :P
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But could perception of 'Project Natal' vs Move create a situation where worldwide perception changes again? I know we can only talk theoretically about the initial and continued response (both critical and consumer) to either, but its obvious that currently Natal has the majority of interest. E3 will ultimately set the stage for people's excitement, so we'll know more at that point on this subject. Its really hard to predict how ANYTHING will play out with these two being thrown in the mix . . .
