This is crazy.

At the end of 2010 the PS3 will have 5 holidays under its belt and be at about 40 million sold. So in 5 more holidays the PS3 is expected to sell 80 million.

The 10 year plan does not mean 10 years before the release of the PS4 and the Xbox Next. The PS3 will not continue to sell at a similiar pace like the PS2 did after the PS3 launched. 2-3 years before the PS3 10 year anniversary the PS4 and the Xbox Next will be duking it out and the PS3 and the 360 will be selling 5 million per year at that point.

It's kind of goofy, and considering the quality of their predictions, I'm not sure it is even worth trying to understand.  I'll try anyway.

"Ownership of both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 will hit their highest points between 2012 and 2014."

I think they are trying to talk about active install base, maybe.  Either that or they are saying that those years will be the last for these consoles, since the last year of a console is always going to be when it has its highest install base.

"SACHD also anticipates that the global installed base of home consoles will reach over 220 million by the end of the year..."

They think that another 80.7 million consoles will be sold by the end of 2011.  At first I thought that they meant 2010, but it is just poorly written.

"...but its models indicate that the ownership of current systems will peak in 2011."

Talking about active install base again, I think.  How anyone can know how many active consoles there are is beyond me.

"At that point, the firm believes vendors will 'need to introduce new systems in order to maintain industry growth.'"

Here they are just saying there will be a need for a new hardware cycle after 2011.  Nothing earth shattering here.  It seems to me like most people are thinking a new generation will start in 2012.

You mean if it isn't discontinued, and manages to make a few thousand sales every week? We'll say, WOW, that' AMAZING!

I suppose it can happen, it's not impossible.

2006: 1.2 million

2007: 7.6 million

2008: 9.6 million

2009: 12.7 million

2010: 15 million

2011: 17 million

2012: 15 million

2013: 12 million

2014: 10 million

2015: 8 million

2016: 5 million

Total: 113 million, seems somewhat reasonable, we'll likely see the PS3 at $199 or less in 2011. Along with big exclusives and constant updates, new features, and peripherals it should keep selling at a good constant pace.

As for the Wii, the only reason it'd stop selling at 103 million, is either a new console (HD) in order to try to steal some 3rd party devs from X360 and PS3. Or it'll actually slow down and sell worst and worst from now on, by the looks of it the Wii may have already peaked.

I'm surprised this is still going on. Thanks to Viper showing their previous predictions, I thought the fact that these folks have been off and EVERY aspect regarding this gen that these latest ramblings would be seen for what they are; Propoganda.

How any one is trying to make sense out of this is beyond me. PS3 is apparently going to defy history and continue selling like it did in its peak year for 5 additional years? Get real. While Wii is going to putter out like a hooptie out of gas? Get real.

Wishful thinking does not change reality and can be dangerous for rationale.

Why is it assumed that a Wii HD would stop sales of the Wii, while a PS4 would not stop sales of the PS3? If anything, I would expect the opposite since Wii consumers care least about system power or graphics improvements.

I almost cried lol, that post was too perfect

Those numbers are nuts, completely nuts. A $299 PS3 failed to turn things around, but a $199 PS3 will? Come on. There's already a $199 substitute product on the market that will probably be $99 or $149 before PS3 gets to $199.

PS3 will not have growth in it's fourth and fifth full years on the market, and definitely not the growth you suggest.

A couple of things to note:

First of all, technology changes will make it difficult for the PS3 maintain momentum. In other words, either the competitors will release more powerful units and 3D will replace HD as the "go to" technology.

In addition, research by Gamasutra poster Ken Masters shows that SACHD has a history of propping up the PS3 with its predictions.

July 2005 -- Worldwide Through 2012
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (61%)
Xbox 360 - 58.8 million (30%)
Nintendo Wii - 18 million (9%)
Total - 198.6 million


July 2006 -- Worldwide Through 2012
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (59.47%)
Xbox 360 - 59.7 million (29.15%)
Nintendo Wii - 23.3 million (11.38%)
Total - 204.8 million

Note that the Wii's worldwide sales are current more than the combined totals for 2012 of both these predictions. Also, sitting less than one-quarter into 2010 -- there are only about 60-65M sales to come in the next 2-3/4 years (139.3M units sold worldwide so far).

Mike from Morgantown

We know the PS3 will be on markets for more years than Wii, that's pretty sure...but we don't know how it will sell after Wii2's launch...do they really think that if Wii 2 launches in 2012, with Wii Sports 3, NSMBW 2, Mario Kart Wii 2 and some other great games it won't become immediately the market leader? And if it is as powerful as a PS3 (quite possible, in 2012 at 250$ it would make profits from the beginning) why should customers buy a PS3 (considering the games which expand the audience are being published now, so in the next years the sales will be caused more by existing games than new ones) ? Wii eill sell over 100m before the new console launch, but then it son't stop selling, likely topping 110-120m. The PS3 I think will struggle to sell more than 90m LTD.