Analyst predicts 127m PS3 sales

[theRepublic]

saicho said:

"Ownership of both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 will hit their highest points between 2012 and 2014.

SACHD also anticipates that the global installed base of home consoles will reach over 220 million by the end of the year, but its models indicate that the ownership of current systems will peak in 2011. At that point, the firm believes vendors will "need to introduce new systems in order to maintain industry growth.""

I don't understand this part.

It's kind of goofy, and considering the quality of their predictions, I'm not sure it is even worth trying to understand.  I'll try anyway.

"Ownership of both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 will hit their highest points between 2012 and 2014."

I think they are trying to talk about active install base, maybe.  Either that or they are saying that those years will be the last for these consoles, since the last year of a console is always going to be when it has its highest install base.

"SACHD also anticipates that the global installed base of home consoles will reach over 220 million by the end of the year..."

They think that another 80.7 million consoles will be sold by the end of 2011.  At first I thought that they meant 2010, but it is just poorly written.

"...but its models indicate that the ownership of current systems will peak in 2011."

Talking about active install base again, I think.  How anyone can know how many active consoles there are is beyond me.

"At that point, the firm believes vendors will 'need to introduce new systems in order to maintain industry growth.'"

Here they are just saying there will be a need for a new hardware cycle after 2011.  Nothing earth shattering here.  It seems to me like most people are thinking a new generation will start in 2012.