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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analyst predicts 127m PS3 sales

MikeB on 09 March 2010
Demotruk said:
MikeB said:
Demotruk said:
MikeB said:

@ Twistedpixel

I already explained before the PS3 launched why I thought the PS3 uptake would be slower initially than was the case for the PS2. (Being ahead for its time much more so than the PS2 was, this translates into higher entry pricing and problems regarding adapting legacy game engines, also relatively new and high tech such as HDTV, fast internet access and surround audio setup are preferred)

But the PS3 isn't selling to the expectations you set out. You said it could overtake the 360 in 2009, and you said that in the same year. You also said in 2008 (reiterating an earlier prediction) that PS3 would start to outsell Wii globally Christmas 2008.

 

Nothing unusual about making bad predictions, most of mine have gone afoul, but at least don't pretend everything has gone according to expectations.

Some in context quotes people. I said if Final Fantasy XIII, Gran Turismo 5, God of War 3, etc would be launched in 2009 it would be a possibility for the PS3 to overtake the XBox 360 as I also thought a slimline PS3 would be launched in 2009. But I said I thought this would likely materialize by 2010.

I never formulate my statements as stricly as you do here, so I doubt you can find such quotes. And although before the Wii's launch I was one of the very few who believed in the Wii system, I acknowledges it many times already that the Wii's success and hype overshadowed my expectations.

Here you go:

 

"No your comments are far more extreme compared to what I stated. Last year I stated that I believe the PS3 would start to outsell the Wiiglobally around christmas 2008 (so far I have been correct). This like I said back in 2006 that I believed the PS3 to outsell the 360 for christmas 2007 (with regard to which I was correct).

I'm not sure if I have to adjust this perspective considering the Final Fantasy and Killzone release shedule and so I leave my prediction as is for now."

 

Of course, when Killzone and Final Fantasy where out, it didn't start beating the Wii in those regions either (beyond individual bumps). And while the PS3 finally  did have a period being ahead of Wii iin Japan in 2009, it was more the Wii's decline than the PS3's gain.

Actually that underlines my point. I made it clear I wasn't 100% certain about that. For example there was no PS3 price cut for 2008, I didn't anticipate on that to be the case and I hoped some key titles would've hit the market earlier (well, if not sacrificing quality). This has been talked about before. You cannot foresee everything, but IMO these are just details compared to the big picture.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

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DEATH775 on 09 March 2010

That is a huge sale. But I don't think its going to happen. It is just too much.



Stop moaning about the game, if you don't like the game shut up and make our own game.

ruff_romeo on 09 March 2010

im sorry i don't believe that it "eventually" will sell that many units...because the way tech is exploding these past few years nobody can predict what will happen in the near future. Predict the end of this year or the beginning of next year, but noway can you predict what will happen by 2014..its just seems too far-fetched, anything can happen!



Twistedpixel on 09 March 2010
Frank_kc said:
I think Sony can do it and it can compete with next generation Xbox and Wii. PS3 has all the technology which WII and Xbox will try to add. Wii will add HD and maybe 3D, XBox will add 3D and both will have to agree on a new media format (can be blu-ray or digitial download and doubt it will be the later). PS3 already has motion control also.

So all in all, PS3 already has all the features which the other consoles will be trying to add and it will be way too cheaper to buy than xbox and wii.

Lets take this back in time to the PS2.

The PS2 had online, but sucky online compared to even the Wii.

The PS2 could do HD, but sucky HD compared to the Xbox 360 and PS3 and Wii.

The PS2 had motion controls, but sucky compared to PS3, Xbox 360, Wii.

The PS2 had a 10 year plan and yet modern consoles thrashed it in terms of performance. I doubt that the PS3 can claim any great advantage in a couple of years next to consoles with 4* the memory, 3* memory bandwidth, 4* media read spead, 5* transistors etc and modern interfaces.

So yeah I'll spell it out for you.

The PS3 can do 3D, but sucky compared to next generation 3D with proper implementations.

The PS3 can do motion, but sucky compared to consoles which come with more refined interfaces standard.

The PS3 has a HDD, but future consoles can use flash for vastly improved performance and lower base cost.



Do you know what its like to live on the far side of Uranus?

Twistedpixel on 09 March 2010
MikeB said:
@ Twistedpixel

So what? Technology won't help them.

The Wii is already behind the times and yet it still kicked their butts


I think a much better take on this would be that the PS3 doesn't need to be the most powerful console 5 years from now as is currently the case for the PS3 to continue to sell. Further increases of HDTV penetration should help the PS3.

Based upon which merits?

  • Won't have the commanding lead of the Wii/PS2/PS1/SNES/NES
  • HD TV penetration? Its probably over 50% in the U.S. if it was 46% a couple of months ago, and I doubt the late adopters are PS3s future userbase.
  • Doesn't have the compelling unique selling proposition of the Wii, and whatevers unique for the PS3 will be done better on next generation consoles such as full HD, more mature motion controls and more efficient/cheaper technology.


Do you know what its like to live on the far side of Uranus?

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Millennium on 09 March 2010
Blue3 said:
I'll believe a real analyst over a bunch of forum gamer kids any day. According to most of you PS3 was to die long long time ago.

The scary part is that the "forum gamer kids" have a much better track record than the analysts do, at least as far as this generation goes.



Complexity is not depth. Machismo is not maturity. Obsession is not dedication. Tedium is not challenge. Support gaming: support the Wii.

Be the ultimate ninja! Play Billy Vs. SNAKEMAN today! Poisson Village welcomes new players.

What do I hate about modern gaming? I hate tedium replacing challenge, complexity replacing depth, and domination replacing entertainment. I hate the outsourcing of mechanics to physics textbooks, art direction to photocopiers, and story to cheap Hollywood screenwriters. I hate the confusion of obsession with dedication, style with substance, new with gimmicky, old with obsolete, new with evolutionary, and old with time-tested.
There is much to hate about modern gaming. That is why I support the Wii.

crumas2 on 09 March 2010

I certainly hope the PS3 isn't Sony's primary console after another 3 years. I seriously doubt Nintendo and MS are going to wait a total of 10 years to release new consoles, and I can't buy the hype that the PS3 could still be "leading edge" performance-wise if that happens. Processor/bus/memory/etc advances just don't crawl along that slowly.

For those who say, "Sony wants to keep the PS3 around for 10 years", that doesn't really determine much from a product standpoint. I would love it if my home computer could play the latest games after 10 years, but the only way to come even close to making that happen is to basically replace all the internals with much more advanced components... motherboard, drives, memory, etc. You can't do that with a PS3 and still call it a PS3.

And before someone points out that the PS3 Slim has a "new" motherboard, etc., you need to think about the fact that the changes to the processor, graphics, etc. are slightly upgraded--primarily with power-savings in mind, not redesigns of those components.



Legend11 on 09 March 2010
crumas2 said:
I certainly hope the PS3 isn't Sony's primary console after another 3 years. I seriously doubt Nintendo and MS are going to wait a total of 10 years to release new consoles, and I can't buy the hype that the PS3 could still be "leading edge" performance-wise if that happens. Processor/bus/memory/etc advances just don't crawl along that slowly.

For those who say, "Sony wants to keep the PS3 around for 10 years", that doesn't really determine much from a product standpoint. I would love it if my home computer could play the latest games after 10 years, but the only way to come even close to making that happen is to basically replace all the internals with much more advanced components... motherboard, drives, memory, etc. You can't do that with a PS3 and still call it a PS3.

And before someone points out that the PS3 Slim has a "new" motherboard, etc., you need to think about the fact that the changes to the processor, graphics, etc. are slightly upgraded--primarily with power-savings in mind, not redesigns of those components.


I don't think any of them want to bring out a new console any time soon.  Nintendo is raking it in with the cheapest console to produce.  Microsoft is looking at the profits that Nintendo is making in video games and is starting to chase that now.  Sony can't afford to launch a new console considering they're probably just reaching the break even point for hardware.  Add to that the current costs of game development and the additional costs for a newer console and it's doubtful that anyone except some gamers want new consoles.



Asriel on 09 March 2010

So if Nintendo release a new console in 2011, that's not going to have any impact on the current machines? It'll only impact the Wii? PS3 will grow regardless? I find that hard to believe. Not that I expect Nintendo's next machine to kill off 360 and PS3, but I'm not sure these analysts are taking into account the effect a new Nintendo machine could have on the market as a whole.

This is the story we've been hearing for years. I expect the PS3 has a couple more strong years in it, maybe positive growth this year and flat next year, but 127 million is a little high for lifetime sales, in my opinion. I think we'll see Wii nearer that mark. As for 360 and PS3, it's hard to speculate how long their tails will be without Natal and Arc on the market. The impact of those two devices could be significant or non-existent.



jarrod on 09 March 2010

All 3 manufacturers will launch new consoles in 2012. And we're getting both new handhelds next year too most likely.  Don't fall for the PR...