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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analyst predicts 127m PS3 sales

Wii will be on shelves longer than PS3. Same story for DS vs PSP.



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does anyone know the % of men, women, chilren, old people who own wii's? whos buying these things?



Grimes said:

Except by the time the PS3 is $199, you'll probably be able to get a 360 for $99 and a blu-ray player for $60. Blu-ray players will be dvd player cheap within two years. The 360 will be dirt cheap or replaced in two years.

Delusional for sake of ones bad opinion, nice.

The next PS3 cut is likely $100, unless they cut $50 this year.  A cut from 299 to 199 is a very natural one, it coudl happen thsi year.   

Br player with online and 3d sure as hell wont be anywhere near $60 in 2 years time. 

360 will soon come with Natal, which will add costs.  So give up on the $99 360 dream, hell the original xbox never even got near that.  Lowest price it got to was $150. 

 



jarrod said:
Wii will be on shelves longer than PS3. Same story for DS vs PSP.


hope your joking. if not then i have no reply as my brain has malfunctioned from what you just said,



Are all you forgetting Nin openly said they are working on their next hardware.

While both Sony and MS have said this will be longest gen ever, its clear neither is in any rush to start the next gen early. Both seem hell bent to milk this gen as long as possible.



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SOLIDSNAKE08 said:

you should have been around in 2007 and 2008. ps3 was getting so much stick. people were doubting if it would even hit 30 million. honestly! lets face it. we dont know what gonna happen this gen. its too unpredictable.

Well i was here, and its still the same thing.

Foolish doubters proven wrong with time, over and over and over. 

People just don't ever learn.



Hus said:
SOLIDSNAKE08 said:
 

you should have been around in 2007 and 2008. ps3 was getting so much stick. people were doubting if it would even hit 30 million. honestly! lets face it. we dont know what gonna happen this gen. its too unpredictable.

Well i was here, and its still the same thing.

Foolish doubters proven wrong with time, over and over and over. 

People just don't ever learn.

The few who were convinced it would sell less than that were fools, but the possibility was there (and in a big way) through PS3s 2007 sales. Just like there is still a posibility it will not manage 50 million sales, and I would say an equal possibility it passes 90 million, but in all probability it will remain between those numbers (i'd say 70-75 million is a fairly good bet)

You also have to remember back then, at least into mid-2008, this website was still very Nintendo dominant, there are not many forum goers who actually look at the numbers properly before stating random targets... I find this website really good for avoiding the reams of internet trolls, but that doesn't stop it being full of deluded fans of all three consoles.



MikeB said:
Demotruk said:
MikeB said:

@ Twistedpixel

I already explained before the PS3 launched why I thought the PS3 uptake would be slower initially than was the case for the PS2. (Being ahead for its time much more so than the PS2 was, this translates into higher entry pricing and problems regarding adapting legacy game engines, also relatively new and high tech such as HDTV, fast internet access and surround audio setup are preferred)

But the PS3 isn't selling to the expectations you set out. You said it could overtake the 360 in 2009, and you said that in the same year. You also said in 2008 (reiterating an earlier prediction) that PS3 would start to outsell Wii globally Christmas 2008.

 

Nothing unusual about making bad predictions, most of mine have gone afoul, but at least don't pretend everything has gone according to expectations.

Some in context quotes people. I said if Final Fantasy XIII, Gran Turismo 5, God of War 3, etc would be launched in 2009 it would be a possibility for the PS3 to overtake the XBox 360 as I also thought a slimline PS3 would be launched in 2009. But I said I thought this would likely materialize by 2010.

I never formulate my statements as stricly as you do here, so I doubt you can find such quotes. And although before the Wii's launch I was one of the very few who believed in the Wii system, I acknowledges it many times already that the Wii's success and hype overshadowed my expectations.

Here you go:

 

"No your comments are far more extreme compared to what I stated. Last year I stated that I believe the PS3 would start to outsell the Wiiglobally around christmas 2008 (so far I have been correct). This like I said back in 2006 that I believed the PS3 to outsell the 360 for christmas 2007 (with regard to which I was correct).

I'm not sure if I have to adjust this perspective considering the Final Fantasy and Killzone release shedule and so I leave my prediction as is for now."

 

Of course, when Killzone and Final Fantasy where out, it didn't start beating the Wii in those regions either (beyond individual bumps). And while the PS3 finally  did have a period being ahead of Wii iin Japan in 2009, it was more the Wii's decline than the PS3's gain.



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

well they did predict correctly for the PS2?



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Metallicube said:
I think malstrom said it best: NOBODY can be this stupid. This is obviously industry propaganda.

It has to be.  Especially after Viper1's post with their old predictions.  They predicted that the PS3 would break 120 million in 2005, and again in 2006.  Now that we have 3 years of data that basically proved that impossible, they didn't change their numbers?  How is that even "analysis" if the new data didn't change their conclusions whatsoever?

 

SOLIDSNAKE08 said:
how do consumers decide if the ps3 lasts 10 years? only sony decide when that happens. if they keep supporting the ps3 for 10 years then consumers will keep buying it.

Well there are a few occasions when companies cut off products early, like when MS ditched the XBox to help jumpstart the XBox360 to get a headstart in this generation, or when the Saturn was awkwardly replaced with the DreamCast.  But outside of those, a product dies off when consumers decide to stop buying it, when more appealing competition comes along.  Sony could support the PS3 for a thousand years, but if one company could just support a console forever and consumers would keep buying it... then every company would do that, and we'd never have new generations of hardware.

Nintendo was still manufacturing and selling new Famicoms in Japan for 20 years, but that didn't boost the Famicom to 120 million sales.

 

Hus said:
Are all you forgetting Nin openly said they are working on their next hardware.

While both Sony and MS have said this will be longest gen ever, its clear neither is in any rush to start the next gen early. Both seem hell bent to milk this gen as long as possible.

They've all been working on their next hardware for years.  They all have whole hardware divisions that start working on their next console the second one launches.  But Nintendo is also hell bent on milking this gen as long as possible, because the Wii and DS are currently making more money than the XBox 360, PS3, PSP, and PS2 combined.  Why would Nintendo want to cut that short?