By the end of calendar 2010, all three current generation consoles will feature some sort of gesture-based control mechanism - Microsoft with Project Natal, Sony with their motion wands(codenamed Arc), and Nintendo with the Wiimote.  All three platform holders are taking different approaches with their respective motion controllers, and all three solutions will resonate differently with the consumers.

With the Wiimote already firmly entrenched in the mind of the consumer as the de facto motion controller, focus has shifted to Project Natal and Sony's motion wands.  Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter has weighed in on the two newcomers, predicting that Microsoft's Project Natal will greatly outsell Sony's Arc controller in their first year on the market.

"I think that the Sony motion controller will have some problems gaining traction, since it is not an “in the box” solution," Pachter told us in an exclusive interview.  "That will probably limit adoption to one or two million at the outset.”  

This is in stark contrast to Project Natal, which he predicts will do upwards of five to ten times that number.

“A year or so after launch, there will be 10 million [Project Natal units] out there, which will probably attract more third party support."

Both Project Natal and Sony's Arc controller are set to make a big splash at the upcoming E3 convention.

http://www.ps3center.net/news/4360/pachter-predicts-natal-will-outsell-arc-51-at-launch/

An "in the box solution"?

...

What?

What is an "In the box solution"?

Is he basicly saying that it wnt be bundled, and Natal will?

Erm its easy to predict which will sell better if your assuming one will be bundled and the other will not...

So one sells 5, the other 1?

So.... Arc will outsell Natal 5:1 confirmed?

wii fit (which i believe is the most successful peripheral in history) sold ~10.5 million in its first year. i just don't see natal selling on par with wii fit but i guess we'll find out later this year.

Natal is probably going to be bundled with Xbox 360s while the Arc won't be bundled with PS3s.

more like 1.5-2 to 1 and I don't think Natal will be as critically acclaimed as Arc because its a great concept but I don't see how it will work for shooters, racing games, or anything besides platformers To be honest. Im so lazy I dont want to have to stand while I play nor do I want to be constantly in motion, why would anybody want such a thing?

I think a lot also depends on what software comes with it. If Natal on its own is the £25 being suggested by Pachter then obviously that is cheap and will sell loads. Microsoft are going to advertise it like hell, they may even sell it at a big loss. They just want everyone with a 360 to get one and then make the money back on the software for it.

Natal seems to be very mainstream as in it is being reported everywhere. I don't think i have even heard The Arc being talked about here. So i would not be surprised at all to see it crush Arc sales, isnt that what everyone is expecting anyway?