EDIT: Welp, contrary to what most of us thought back in 2024, it seems 40m is a no go.

So how about 36 million? Do you think it can make it, (2.12m to go) or will the system choke out before even this threshold?

Doesn't matter because the biggest consequence of poor hardware sales is having to put your games on other platforms. That has already happened and MS know the Xbox console alone is not their future. They will make sure there is always a console that has gamepass accessibility for sale, but that says more about the importance of gamepass than Xbox. Console success is definitely not their focus anymore so whether it's a bit over 40M or under 40M it makes no difference.

The only way I can see it not getting to 40 million is a combination of
1. Xbox 5 releasing November 2026 (I see this happening)
2. Microsoft reducing sales on hardware.
3. A lot more first-party games coming to PlayStation.

Probably not lol

I'll be perplexed if it can't move at least 12 million more lifetime

I believe the current target is 45 to 55 million range, depends on how long MS is planning to support it I guess

Yes,

Unless Microsoft screws really, really bad.

I actually think its possible it could fall short.
If its overtracked by a few million here.... and if they do launch a new console in early 2026.

Its gonna do another 5m this year, and probably 3,5-4m in 2025.
It could happend, even if its not the most likely thing to happend, imo.

It won't.

People underestimate how much the sales have fallen and don't realize that -30% YoY two years in a row means selling half as much as two years before. If you take into account the shifting towards the Series X it means it's moving even fewer units and because of that, among other reasons, I think it's overtracked everywhere (IMHO).

I also don't think that it makes much sense that Microsoft is posting constant drops in hardware revenues and the folks making estimations don't reflect them in their figures even taking into account discounts in busy seasons.

Fall short unless something compelling is released. First generation I haven't bought Xbox and I don't feel like I'm missing out. Elder Scrolls would alter my opinion quickly

Of course it will. It's gonna be at about 33m by the end of this year so it has a much, much higher chance of still reaching 50m than failing to reach 40m. The only scenario where it fails to reach 40m is if Microsoft stops selling it by the end of 2025 for whatever reason. There were overreactions to it doing well until late 2022 with some expecting it to do as well as the 360 for a while and now there's overreactions in the opposite direction.