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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for Nintendo Switch in 2023?


Sell-through expectations for Nintendo Switch in 2023?

Less than 12 million 57 8.55%
12.0 - 13.4 million 25 3.75%
13.5 - 14.9 million 49 7.35%
15.0 - 16.4 million 147 22.04%
16.5 - 17.9 million 133 19.94%
18.0 - 19.4 million 108 16.19%
19.5 - 20.9 million 78 11.69%
21.0 - 22.4 million 34 5.10%
22.5 - 24.0 million 8 1.20%
More than 24 million 28 4.20%

Next up is Nintendo Switch in our yearly outlook. Here are the previous years' numbers (VGC estimates):

2017: 13.12m
2018: 16.37m
2019: 19.33m
2020: 28.47m
2021: 24.35m
2022: 17.17m with three weeks left to go (sold 2.65m in the comparable timeframe in 2021)

What are your sell-through expectations for Nintendo Switch in 2023?


Previous year's poll:

Sell-through expectations for Switch in 2022?

Less than 14 million 46 5.22%
14.0 - 15.9 million 43 4.88%
16.0 - 17.9 million 53 6.02%
18.0 - 19.9 million 119 13.51%
20.0 - 21.9 million 267 30.31%
22.0 - 23.9 million 165 18.73%
24.0 - 25.9 million 98 11.12%
26.0 - 27.9 million 20 2.27%
28.0 - 30.0 million 17 1.93%
More than 30 million 53 6.02%
Total: 881

2022 will fall just short of the bracket that got the most votes, so to my recollection this marks the first time in any sales poll that the general consensus overestimated Switch.

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

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16.5M seems right on the money to me, but since that is in between two options I’m going under rather than over.

Depends greatly on whether Nintendo announces a successor this year. If they do not it could still hit 17.5 million I think due to Zelda

Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

Way less than 12mil obviously! /jk

I'm thinking 16mil. A last big year before the next gen console releases next year.


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If there's no successor this year, I expect 14-15m.
Hard to say for sure though with their lineup for the year still vague.

What big titles for Switch we have confirmed for 2023 other than Tears of the Kingdom?

I want to know If this makes sense before voting.

Alex_The_Hedgehog said:

What big titles for Switch we have confirmed for 2023 other than Tears of the Kingdom?

I want to know If this makes sense before voting.

So far TotK is the only huge game confirmed. Also confirmed are a remake of a Wii Kirby game, Fire Emblem, and Pikmin 4.

No doubt we'll be getting more game announcements in the months to come. I think most Nintendo gamers are waiting to hear about Metroid Prime remake, Prime 4, DK, 2D Mario, though out of those only Prime 4 has even been announced as in existence. Also add in waiting to hear when Advance Wars will get a new release date.

2023 could be a HUGE year for Switch games, but we're all just waiting to see what gets announced. Presumably, with over 120m systems sold to start the year Nintndo will be making sure to to get all these popular games/series on the Switch, which probably means a good amount of them should hit this year. But we'll know when Nintendo lets us know.

I'm expecting 2023 to be one last year of strong first party support for the Switch. 16.5m-17.9m.

More than PS5 and XBS