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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Switch shipped 92.87m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

Nintendo Switch shipped 92.87m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 110 million 35 4.06%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 88 10.20%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 176 20.39%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 183 21.21%
 
140.0 - 149.9 million 130 15.06%
 
150.0 - 159.9 million 141 16.34%
 
160.0 - 169.9 million 55 6.37%
 
170.0 - 179.9 million 11 1.27%
 
180.0 - 190.0 million 7 0.81%
 
More than 190 million 37 4.29%
 
Total:863

Nintendo Switch shipped 92.87m units by September 30th. What are your lifetime sales expectations?

17 months ago the same question was asked, results below. Ignoring the lowest and highest poll options due to high likelihood of lacking sincerity of the voters, ~45% voted for definitely lower lifetime sales than the PS4 (which had shipped 110.4m LTD at that time), ~34% for similar sales as the PS4 and only ~9% expected Switch to outsell the PS4. In other words, even during its fourth year the majority of people still underestimated Switch sales.

 

Nintendo Switch shipped 55.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 80 million 71 5.77%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 87 7.07%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 148 12.02%
 
100.0 - 109.9 million 322 26.16%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 228 18.52%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 191 15.52%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 60 4.87%
 
140.0 - 149.9 million 28 2.27%
 
150.0 - 160.0 million 21 1.71%
 
More than 160 million 75 6.09%
 
Total: 1,231

Bonus question: What is your favorite Switch release up till now?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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I noticed your lack of faith in the extremes, but I did vote 150+ million back then and I still vote the same now.

And my favourite release is still Super Mario Odyssey, didn't get this amount of hype for any other game, ever.



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SKMBlake said:

I noticed your lack of faith in the extremes, but I did vote 150+ million back then and I still vote the same now.

And my favourite release is still Super Mario Odyssey, didn't get this amount of hype for any other game, ever.

The extreme in the previous poll was 160m+.

Personally, I went two notches higher this time, to 150-160m. It doesn't feel overly optimistic when the yearly breakdown looks like this:

End of 2021 - 103m shipped
2022 - 123m (20m)
2023 - 138m (15m)
2024 - 147m (9m)
2025 - 151m (4m)
Rest of Life - 2-8m for a total of 153-159m

It's up in the air how many price cuts and revisions Nintendo will issue. The above is without a Switch Pro-like upgrade.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

If the current sales pace is maintained (even with an annual decline that will certainly not be as sharp as the Wii's, both because it has more heavy third-party releases and because of the games that Nintendo itself is yet to release) and projecting that the Switch's successor should only be released between the end of 2023 and the end of 2024, I believe it will reach the milestone of 150 million units shipped. It's increasingly likely that it will come close to or even pass total PS2 and Nintendo DS sales.

Bonus question: considering the games that were also released on other consoles, Dragon Quest XI S was the one I liked the most; if only the exclusives are considered, Fire Emblem: Three Houses was my favorite.



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I did 130-139.

Favorite exclusive is Three Houses
Most played game is Fortnite



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Last year i made an estimation guess for calendar year shipments and it was something like this:
2021 - 25m
2022 - 18m
2023 - 12m
2024 - 8m
2025 and later 5m
With a total of approx 148 LTD
Given the global shipments shortages and cut estimation forecast by Nintendo for this FY (shifting 1-2 million from this year to 2022) I think in the end it wil be like 150m LTD

Bonus: It's a tie between Xenoblade Chronicles 2 and Zelda BotW



Zanark best Inazuma Eleven pg

There is another thread and poll about this .. why again ?



I did 140-149.9 million. Favorite game on Switch is Fire Emblem Three Houses.



Cant believe 7 people and the plurality of people voted under 130 Million for the Switch, that is delusion. Most likely scenario is 140-150M



I don't understand how anyone could still believe the Switch is gonna end up below 130mil. It's going to be over 103mil at the end of this CY. How is it going to sell less than 30mil more after that? It just got a new model and next year's lineup is huge with still more to come. There is literally no way unless the 2023 lineup is literal garbage and/or the successor releases in early 2023, which doesn't make any sense. That would be less than two years after a new model and they haven't even revealed a codename for the next console.

Some people just seem to ignore how Nintendo several times stated that the Switch will have a longer life than usual for Nintendo. That means longer than 6 years.