I don't understand how anyone could still believe the Switch is gonna end up below 130mil. It's going to be over 103mil at the end of this CY. How is it going to sell less than 30mil more after that? It just got a new model and next year's lineup is huge with still more to come. There is literally no way unless the 2023 lineup is literal garbage and/or the successor releases in early 2023, which doesn't make any sense. That would be less than two years after a new model and they haven't even revealed a codename for the next console.
Some people just seem to ignore how Nintendo several times stated that the Switch will have a longer life than usual for Nintendo. That means longer than 6 years.