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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2021?

 

Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2021?

Less than 8 million 61 6.93%
 
8.0 - 9.9 million 45 5.11%
 
10.0 - 11.9 million 88 10.00%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 117 13.30%
 
14.0 - 15.9 million 203 23.07%
 
16.0 - 17.9 million 122 13.86%
 
18.0 - 19.9 million 105 11.93%
 
20.0 - 21.9 million 61 6.93%
 
22.0 - 24.0 million 18 2.05%
 
More than 24 million 60 6.82%
 
Total:880

How much do you expect the PlayStation 5 to sell this year?

For reference, here is what the PS4 sold through in its first full calendar year, according to VGC estimates:

14.560m

...

Bonus question: Which officially announced PS5 game are you looking forward to the most?



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Sony has said they target a bigger number of PS5 sold in the first quarter than the PS4 so I went with 16-17.9m.

Bonus: Final Fantasy XVI then God of War: Ragnarok



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14.0 - 15.9m

I kind of expect it to do better than PS4, so probably >15m, but I don't expect it will be by any significant margin. Regardless of whether it does better or worse I expect it to be close to the PS4s first full years sales.

Bonus: Horizon Forbidden West, although I'll be waiting for the PC version, rather than the PS5 one.



So far, if I recall correctly, it's been doing worse than PS4, particularly in Japan. It's hit an all-out slump in Japan, and Japanese sales have always been very important with Playstations.

I'm going with less than PS4. 10 to 12.



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thetonestarr said:

So far, if I recall correctly, it's been doing worse than PS4, particularly in Japan. It's hit an all-out slump in Japan, and Japanese sales have always been very important with Playstations.

I'm going with less than PS4. 10 to 12.

Japan is much worse yes but it's been outpacing the PS4 in NA and Europe. Worldwide, it's ahead on PS4.

Stolen from @dmillos in the HW thread : 



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TruckOSaurus said:
thetonestarr said:

So far, if I recall correctly, it's been doing worse than PS4, particularly in Japan. It's hit an all-out slump in Japan, and Japanese sales have always been very important with Playstations.

I'm going with less than PS4. 10 to 12.

Japan is much worse yes but it's been outpacing the PS4 in NA and Europe. Worldwide, it's ahead on PS4.

Stolen from @dmillos in the HW thread : 

Is this gap weekly or cumulative? Seems weekly as I think it is unlikely the cumulative gap drops that much.



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20 - 22 Million



Mnementh said:
TruckOSaurus said:

Japan is much worse yes but it's been outpacing the PS4 in NA and Europe. Worldwide, it's ahead on PS4.

Stolen from @dmillos in the HW thread : 

Is this gap weekly or cumulative? Seems weekly as I think it is unlikely the cumulative gap drops that much.

It is cumulative. Might as well include dmillos' other graph:

The next few weeks are going to be interesting as we see how PS5 behaves outside the holiday boost.



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I'm saying 16-17.9M. I think the people who chose 20M or over are very wishful thinkers. I don't think there has ever been a console that sells over 20M in their first year. In fact, selling 20M in a single year isn't necessarily the most common thing for consoles anyway. I think the Wii, DS, PS2, Switch and PS1 are the only consoles that managed that. I'm not sure about the Gameboy, but I'd imagine that one did too. Still...that's six consoles out of the history of the videogame industry.

Expecting the PS5 to hit that mark in it's first year when sales are often lower than their peaks is just not likely, IMO.



TruckOSaurus said:
Mnementh said:

Is this gap weekly or cumulative? Seems weekly as I think it is unlikely the cumulative gap drops that much.

It is cumulative. Might as well include dmillos' other graph:

The next few weeks are going to be interesting as we see how PS5 behaves outside the holiday boost.

Wait, PS5 is launch-aligned in total only 280K ahead of PS4 anymore? OK, then the sales were very much frontloaded. Seeing the second graph shows this. After the first two weeks (second week is european lanch if I remember right) there is a sharp drop and not much of a christmas boost. Hmm. It really is interesting to see how PS5 goes on in the new year. I thought outside of japan the PS5 was strongly ahead of PS4, but it looks much closer in reality.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]