The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[XtremeBG]

Although it seems to be do just fine for now, when we look at the regional sales for 2024 calendar year, it's not so pink. The US and Europe markets are down massively. Yes there was Zelda last year which surely boosted the sales but still .. For the US market from almost 6M in 2022, Switch was down to almost 5M last year and this year it's only 1.5M until October. Yes it will do maybe some 800k or 1M more with the holiday. Let's put it at 2.5M. It's still a big drop. And when the big drops are usually coming, it's sign that they will continue. If they do next year it will be something like 1M in the US, especially with the successor launching. For Europe it's almost the same, from 5M in 2022, to 4.5M in 2023, it's now at just 1.5M, and since the holidays there for the Switch are little bit weaker than those of the US, let's put it at 2.2-2.3M with the holiday sales. This really points to again sales of around 1M next year. Those two market are almost done with the system it seems. At least when you watch the pure numbers and the performance there compared to the last 2 years. Rest of the world for the year is also 1.5M so it isn't different picture there. The only market that keeps the Switch at decent pace worldwide, and it's doing fine is Japan. Which is dropping too but a lot less.. for now. The sales to this point are almost 144M. For the USA, we can put 1M for the rest of the year, 1M for the next and let's put 1M for the rest of it's life that is 3M in total, which adds up to 147M, for the Europe it's the same, so it's add up to 150M, for the rest of the world since it's around the same level for the year like the previous two, we can put the same 3M till end of life, it's 153M. That leaves around 7M more for JAPAN for the Switch to break the 160M mark. It's at 2.5M this year with October included. It can do another 500k there for 3M in total. So 6.5M left, which is still not a small number when you consider it will probably sell 2M at most there next year, and with Switch 2 being in full swing by 2026, it will be lucky if it can do 1M in 2026. So it can do another 3M in JAPAN for 2025 and 2026, then what ? 3.5M left .. even if some of the number's I wrote seems pessimistic for some, remember that when Switch 2 get announced, Switch 1 sales will drop more for sure, when Switch 2 get released it will drop another time for sure, and by 2026 it will drop even more. Also remember that there is a gap of around 3.5M, even if we add some more on the numbers I said, will they be enough to reach 160M? And do you know what happens then ? Switch finishing anywhere between 155M and 160M will result in debates on the forums everywhere who sold the most PS2 or Switch. And yes there will be points for both, but the debates will never end.. unless Sony come out and officially report the exact number of PS2 produced units. For which I see the only possible case of that happening will be if the number is actually bigger than that of the Switch, cuz if it's smaller there will be no point for them to go out and confirm PS2 doing less than the recent announced number from Nintendo for the Switch, when it's finally discontinued.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 10 November 2024