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2020: The peek of the Switch?

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I want to buy a switch but I don't wanna pay $300 because I have a feeling it will receive a price drop and revision later this.



我是广州人

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TheMisterManGuy said:

They still have stuff like a new Star Fox, ARMS 2, any 1-2 Switch-esque party games, more Mario Sports, Diamond and Pearl Remakes, Bayo 3, and perhaps more New IP and co-productions with other developers. Nintendo isn't like a tank that can only use a set number of franchises and that's it. There's plenty of avenues they can take for future Switch software.

Star Fox ? Not in development ... 

ARMS 2 ? One and done ... 

1-2 Switch ? Ditto ... 

Mario Sports ? The main spin-offs are it's Tennis games which is already here and that Sonic crossover which will be out by the end of this year ... 

Pokemon remakes ? Who really cares about those ? 

Bayonetta 3 ? PlatinumGames are irrelevant in terms of system selling power ... 

Actually, Nintendo pretty much is becoming a tank that can only use a set number of franchises and the same applies to nearly every big publisher out there. There's no way Nintendo can keep realistically churning out new block buster AAA titles at every turn throughout the entire generation to push hardware like you seem to imply ... 

It's probably for the best that Nintendo kills off any ideas of developing new AAA games for the Switch by the end of 2020 and start focusing on a potential next generation successor because that's just HOW LONG a game's development pipeline is getting ... 



fatslob-:O said:

Star Fox ? Not in development ... 

ARMS 2 ? One and done ... 

1-2 Switch ? Ditto ... 

Mario Sports ? The main spin-offs are it's Tennis games which is already here and that Sonic crossover which will be out by the end of this year ... 

Pokemon remakes ? Who really cares about those ? 

Bayonetta 3 ? PlatinumGames are irrelevant in terms of system selling power ... 

It was successful enough to get a sequel.

Actually, Nintendo pretty much is becoming a tank that can only use a set number of franchises and the same applies to nearly every big publisher out there. There's no way Nintendo can keep realistically churning out new block buster AAA titles at every turn throughout the entire generation to push hardware like you seem to imply ... 

Of course they can't. That's why they have other avenues to take regarding future Switch games. Digital titles, New IP, Co-Productions. TBH, Nintendo doesn't really make that many AAA games to begin with. They're closer to a Mid-tier developer anyway.

It's probably for the best that Nintendo kills off any ideas of developing new AAA games for the Switch by the end of 2020 and start focusing on a potential next generation successor because that's just HOW LONG a game's development pipeline is getting ... 

And again, AAA games aren't the only ones that Nintendo makes.



TheMisterManGuy said:
fatslob-:O said:

Star Fox ? Not in development ... 

ARMS 2 ? One and done ... 

1-2 Switch ? Ditto ... 

Mario Sports ? The main spin-offs are it's Tennis games which is already here and that Sonic crossover which will be out by the end of this year ... 

Pokemon remakes ? Who really cares about those ? 

Bayonetta 3 ? PlatinumGames are irrelevant in terms of system selling power ... 

It was successful enough to get a sequel.

Actually, Nintendo pretty much is becoming a tank that can only use a set number of franchises and the same applies to nearly every big publisher out there. There's no way Nintendo can keep realistically churning out new block buster AAA titles at every turn throughout the entire generation to push hardware like you seem to imply ... 

Of course they can't. That's why they have other avenues to take regarding future Switch games. Digital titles, New IP, Co-Productions. TBH, Nintendo doesn't really make that many AAA games to begin with. They're closer to a Mid-tier developer anyway.

It's probably for the best that Nintendo kills off any ideas of developing new AAA games for the Switch by the end of 2020 and start focusing on a potential next generation successor because that's just HOW LONG a game's development pipeline is getting ... 

And again, AAA games aren't the only ones that Nintendo makes.

Yeah they're the platform holder who are the least reliant on AAA releases so that point makes little sense tbh we know a Pokemon remake outsells the majority of AAA titles so that's who cares for them especially if you took any older title and remade it like SW/SH so that's another bizarre argument from him, if we look at the possible titles for 2020 beyond the's a good chance a future year could be the peak year.



Wyrdness said:

Yeah they're the platform holder who are the least reliant on AAA releases so that point makes little sense tbh we know a Pokemon remake outsells the majority of AAA titles so that's who cares for them especially if you took any older title and remade it like SW/SH so that's another bizarre argument from him, if we look at the possible titles for 2020 beyond the's a good chance a future year could be the peak year.

It's well known that Nintendo deliberately keeps development costs for their games low enough to ensure high sales and steady release slate, while still maintaining quality. Sure, once or twice each gen you get a Breath of the Wild or Metroid Prime, but those are more the exception to the rule for them. I don't think that's a bad thing honestly, it's nice that we have a mainstream publisher who specializes in mid-range and smaller titles that many publishers have abandoned these days. I don't think you'd see EA or Sega take a chance on something as niche and risky as Astral Chain for example.



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TheMisterManGuy said:

It was successful enough to get a sequel.

Zero plans for a sequel last checked ... 

TheMisterManGuy said:

Of course they can't. That's why they have other avenues to take regarding future Switch games. Digital titles, New IP, Co-Productions. TBH, Nintendo doesn't really make that many AAA games to begin with. They're closer to a Mid-tier developer anyway.

"Doesn't really make that many AAA games" ? Are you blind or what ? 

Practically all of Nintendo's biggest franchises like Mario, Smash, Zelda, Pokemon, Splatoon, including Animal Crossing currently need a budget of at least $20M+ to attempt and I would not be surprised if some of their mid tier franchises go over that budget as well ... 

By NO means are Nintendo NOT a AAA game producer anymore since all of their notable titles are created with 100+ staff members over a 2+ year period ... 

TheMisterManGuy said:

And again, AAA games aren't the only ones that Nintendo makes.

Their AAA games are the only ones that have any real system selling power to begin with ... 



fatslob-:O said:

Zero plans for a sequel last checked ... 

Correction, he didn't rule out a sequel, he just thought it was too early to be talking about one.

"Doesn't really make that many AAA games" ? Are you blind or what ? 

Practically all of Nintendo's biggest franchises like Mario, Smash, Zelda, Pokemon, Splatoon, including Animal Crossing currently need a budget of at least $20M+ to attempt and I would not be surprised if some of their mid tier franchises go over that budget as well ... 

By NO means are Nintendo NOT a AAA game producer anymore since all of their notable titles are created with 100+ staff members over a 2+ year period ... 

Yes, Nintendo doesn't really make AAA games in the traditional sense. Their games are typically much lower budget than most other publishers. Also it's funny how you bring Splatoon and Animal Crossing into this. Splatoon 1 was developed in only a year and a half with a lower budget than a Mario or Zelda. Spatoon 2 only had a core development staff of around 40-50 people. Animal Crossing also doesn't require as much staff to make due to its relaxed scale.

Games on the scale of BotW and Mario Odyssey are great yes, but they're not the majority of Nintendo's overall output each generation. Many of their games are much smaller in scope than you think.

Their AAA games are the only ones that have any real system selling power to begin with ... 

Luckily, they continue to sell systems throughout the generation, thus you don't need as much of them each year.



fatslob-:O said:
TheMisterManGuy said:

They still have stuff like a new Star Fox, ARMS 2, any 1-2 Switch-esque party games, more Mario Sports, Diamond and Pearl Remakes, Bayo 3, and perhaps more New IP and co-productions with other developers. Nintendo isn't like a tank that can only use a set number of franchises and that's it. There's plenty of avenues they can take for future Switch software.

Star Fox ? Not in development ... 

ARMS 2 ? One and done ... 

1-2 Switch ? Ditto ... 

Mario Sports ? The main spin-offs are it's Tennis games which is already here and that Sonic crossover which will be out by the end of this year ... 

Pokemon remakes ? Who really cares about those ? 

Bayonetta 3 ? PlatinumGames are irrelevant in terms of system selling power ... 

Actually, Nintendo pretty much is becoming a tank that can only use a set number of franchises and the same applies to nearly every big publisher out there. There's no way Nintendo can keep realistically churning out new block buster AAA titles at every turn throughout the entire generation to push hardware like you seem to imply ... 

It's probably for the best that Nintendo kills off any ideas of developing new AAA games for the Switch by the end of 2020 and start focusing on a potential next generation successor because that's just HOW LONG a game's development pipeline is getting ... 

You totally sure about those? I mean, Nintendo said at the end of their direct that they have many more games in development, but they're not far enough in development to be showcased yet. Quite possible that this applies to at least one of these.

@Italic: I wouldn't be so sure about that. Astral Chain should give an indication on that, and Bayonetta 3 certainly will push some consoles. Not Smash numbers, of course, but still...

Also, Nintendo doesn't have to churn out all by themselves. Just look at some of the games the console got or will get this year which are from publishers: Mortal Kombat 11, Doom:Ethernal, Wolfenstein: Youngblood, Spyro collection, Dragon Quest XI S, Dragon Quest Builders 2... The list goes on.

Of course, these multiplats push all platforms they're on, but that also means that they're also doing so for the Switch. In fact, without those, we get Wii U sales numbers, as just Nintendo games without anything else results into that. The inverse is what XBO has: Without compelling exclusives, it's sales are only pushed by multiplats. Switch and PS4 show, that only when you got both that you get great sales. But I digressed too far already.

Nintendo will continue to bring out compelling titles over the next years. In terms of big hitters, could see a proper new Mario Kart 9, for instance. Splatoon 2 is getting it's last Splatfest, so possibly Splatoon 3 is starting to get developed. Or a successor to SMO. Or something different, who knows?

Btw, Nintendo has greatly increased it's personnel in the last 2 years. Nintendo hat about 5000 employees before the launch of the Switch, now they're scratching at the 6000 mark. So clearly they're boosting their different studios to output more and/or bigger games than was possible 2-3 years ago.



2019 peak year.

The beginning of this year we saw high switch sales due to the smash bros effect.

There will be no smash bros at the end of this year.



TheMisterManGuy said:

Correction, he didn't rule out a sequel, he just thought it was too early to be talking about one.

He never confirmed one as well so let's put aside the idea now that a sequel is coming ... 

TheMisterManGuy said:

Yes, Nintendo doesn't really make AAA games in the traditional sense. Their games are typically much lower budget than most other publishers. Also it's funny how you bring Splatoon and Animal Crossing into this. Splatoon 1 was developed in only a year and a half with a lower budget than a Mario or Zelda. Spatoon 2 only had a core development staff of around 40-50 people. Animal Crossing also doesn't require as much staff to make due to its relaxed scale.

Games on the scale of BotW and Mario Odyssey are great yes, but they're not the majority of Nintendo's overall output each generation. Many of their games are much smaller in scope than you think.

'Typically' much lower doesn't mean that they're not AAA games! No indies that are equipped with less than $10M will be able to pull off those games with similar production quality ... 

As far as Splatoon 2 is concerned are you only counting credits ? If you are then it's practically the norm for the industry to just leave out staff who didn't see the game to completion ... 

Maybe not the majority but certainly the most important output during this generation and most likely the next one as well ... 

TheMisterManGuy said:

Luckily, they continue to sell systems throughout the generation, thus you don't need as much of them each year.

Only so much time that they'll keep having effect before hardware sales start sagging ...