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2020: The peek of the Switch?

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JRPGfan said:

With PS5 + XB2 launching in 2020.... I think 2019 is the "peak year" for the Switch.

However that doesnt mean its sales will fall off a cliff in 2020, though I suspect by 2021 its sales will have dropped alot.

Just as I've always said for Switch vs PS4 though, they're not in direct competition, which is why PS4 had it's sales peak the year Switch launched. They don't affect each other in sales, and PS5/XB2 isn't going to affect Switch in sales to a noticeable degree either.

I expect the Switch to have a 20m+ year, and it looks like 2019 might not be it, so I think 2020 will be the peak and sell 20m. Either 2019 or 2020 is going to be the peak year though.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


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JRPGfan said:

With PS5 + XB2 launching in 2020.... I think 2019 is the "peak year" for the Switch.

However that doesnt mean its sales will fall off a cliff in 2020, though I suspect by 2021 its sales will have dropped alot.

I actually doubt that happening. Nextbos and PS5 are launching holidays 2020, so most of the year goes on pretty normal. Switch now has in the second half of the year 2019 a lot of releases and with Animal Crossing that goes on into 2020. So the library 2020 is pretty great. If Switch is dropping in 2020 it will not be because of the other consoles. Similar to PS4 not really have been impacted by the Switch. Switch release impacted Vita and 3DS, but PS4 stayed it's course. In the same way I think Switch will be not influenced much by the others. At least at first. Later on in 2021 and 2022 bigger next gen games will come to these platforms, which will not hit Switch. At that time Switch may start to look old.



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Mnementh said:
 That you put WiiU ports in the second year is obviously wrong, they happened in 2017 too. WiiU ports are just cheap ways to get more money off the development of these titles that not many played on WiiU. They will be sprinkled in here and where, this continues this year (NSMBUD) and maybe even still next year.

Come on, they ported 1 Wii U game and it was released early january, ever since they only announce new games, you can't say "it's still going on"



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I'm pretty sure Pokemon releases this year and not next year.



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The Switch will continue momentum for a while yet. Pending on when BotW2 lands, 2020 could easily be the peak year. However Pokemon in 2019 will make it a hard year to beat, so I still have my doubts that 2019 won't be the peak sales year instead.

When the new consoles drop, there will not be as big of an impact that many want to speculate. Switch is the only console that offers portability so those that are looking for that will still flock to it. Not to mention we have yet to see any hardware revisions, which will also boost sales. Thats not to say Switch will be unaffected entirely, but it will still easily cross 100mil LTS.



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While Nintendo is usually great with showing off games only months (and no more than a year) away, Zelda I think tends to be a longer term. Botw and Skyward Sword were revealed years before releasing, if I remember correctly? So I wouldn't assume the sequel to be 2020, but rather, 2021.



vivster said:
I'm pretty sure Pokemon releases this year and not next year.

To be fair there will probably be one this year, next year and every year. There hasn't been a yearly gap since 2015.

I just realised Animal Crossing actually still releases this fiscal year, just at the tale end of it. But it hasn't been since 2017 that Nintendo had one of their major 1st party titles release in the first half of the year.

I'll need to see the line-up before I guess about 2020. Switch still hasn't received a price cut after all or a hardware revision so who knows very possible.



I to think 2020 will be the peak selling year of the Switch.

The new twins will release late 2020 so PS4 and XB1 will continue to decline over the year, which will leave Nintendo as the lone manufacturer to really pushing it's current machine for the majority of the year, people will probably buy a Switch over PS4/XB1 next year, even more so next year than this. Further, continued first party support and continued increasing third party support and the likelyhood of new Switch models and possibly pricecupts will help as well.




Possible, especially that Animal crossing is coming out pretty much the very last day of this FY. Combined with all the other stuff we'll get (certainly another Pokemon title, for starters, Bayonetta 3 most probably, and the rest will will slowly get announced over the next months and year)

Soundwave said:
2020's focus also, hate to say it in the gaming world will be the PS5/XB2 launches, they're the new systems, they will get the lion's share of attention. Particularly the PS5 as it is the successor to the market leading platform.

Switch launch didn't hinder the PS4 to get it's best year. So that's pretty much debunked. Especially if they would do as well as the PS3 announcement...

Also, their launch is at the tail end of the year, and as such, not going to hinder Nintendo sales very much for the yearly sales.



I'll just ignore the original post because of its questionable logic and instead focus on the question the thread is asking.

2020 can be expected to be better than 2019 because of the effects of a console revision and a price reduction lasting through the whole year, but that doesn't mean 2020 will be the peak year. Aside from people commonly forgetting that Switch's stake in the handheld market can't be fully realized until price has come down to an appropriate level (a sub-200 dollar Switch might not be available before 2021), another very important factor is that Nintendo has now only one console which changes things significantly.

Previously, Nintendo's top development teams had to go back and forth between two consoles to boost their sales which resulted in a loss of momentum for both consoles at different times. Breath of the Wild 2 is just the beginning of hammering the point home that one console is much easier to support. The teams that worked on MK8D/ARMS, Splatoon 2 and Super Mario Odyssey also have another Switch game in the pipeline, so there won't be a sudden shortage of system sellers like on previous Nintendo consoles, with the exception being the NES because that too was Nintendo's only console at the time.

There are also a multitude of 3DS game developers, both first and third party, who have been slow to transition. Switch will have a very robust software lineup for the next few years, so that creates a very appealing console in conjunction with the right price. The timing of revisions and price reductions is still up in the air and as long as Switch sells as well as it does (there's already growth in year 3 despite neither a revision or price cut), Nintendo can postpone those things and notably extend Switch's lifecycle in the process. 2019 won't be Switch's peak year and 2020 might not be it either.



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