Yeah, this. And about electable candidates… I hear so much about people who flip red seats blue. But now I also hear these people (Kyrsten Sinema, Joe Manchin and Doug Jones) actually might acquit Trump. That is the result of looking for the candidate closest to Republicans.

Finally! Saagar is pointing out the thing that has been irking me about Sanders for the longest time!

He is very weak and very illogical on immigration. 

Delaney should have dropped out months ago. So glad he's gone. Now Patrick and Bennet need to go.

Took my Washington Post quiz. There are some questions I'm on the fence on, and depending how I answer them, my Bernie score ranges from 16 to 18, my warren from 12 to 14, my Steyer from 6 to 8, and my Yang from 5 to 7. Biden and Bloomberg are consistently at the bottom for me, with Klobuchar just above them.

So for debate 9, is the 1 delegate in addition to or alternative to the polls criteria? Because that will be huge if it's in addition to. Bloomberg will miss debate 9 since he isn't contesting Iowa or New Hampshire, but he'll probably make it after Super Tuesday. Meanwhile there's a chance that either Warren or Buttigieg might not make debate 9 if they have to get delegates in the first two contests. Most likely they will, but even if they do, if delegates are a must, only Bernie, Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg will probably be on stage for debate 9, with the possibility of Klobuchar. Debate 8 will be Yang's last.

Is biden going down?

#NEW Iowa @Civiqs/@DataProgress Poll:

Sanders 28%
Warren 21%
Buttigieg 15%
Biden 15%
Klobuchar 8%
Yang 5%
Steyer 2%
Gabbard 2%

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) February 2, 2020

The tweet below is supposedly the CNN/Des Moines poll never released

OK, soon things will get real. So I want to take a look at the Iowa polls.

I have taken the polling averages from Fivethirtyeight, Realclearpolitics and 270 to Win and made this table:

As you can see, the order of the candidates is pretty much the same, but 538 see Sanders and Biden much closer than the other two. Nevertheless, they are undoubtely close, and as a caucus the result in Iowa is extremely hard to predict. That is especially true, as voters for candidates that don't reach 15% at their polling station realign to another candidate. This can mess up these polls pretty strongly.

I also took a screenshot of the graphs 358 and RCP provide, as these show the momentum very well:

Fivethirtyeight also has a model for the primaries. Take this with a grain of salt, as it is their first primary model, primaries are harder to model anyways (and a caucus like in Iowa even more so). Anyways, the model shows a high amount of uncertainty in any case. Fivethirtyeight uses a Monte Carlo statistics model, where they run simulations with slight changes in variables according to known uncertainties each time. Of a lot of these simulations they take an average. But 80% of these simulations show Sanders between 2 and 22 delegates in Iowa. 10% have him with even fewer delegates, 10% with more. This is an enourmous range and shows the uncertainty the model holds. And this is true for all candidates, not only Sanders. So take this with an enourmous pile of salt.

Anyways, the model has Sanders winning most delegates in 41% of the simulations, Biden in 35% of the simulations. Buttigieg has 14% chance and Warren 11% chance to win the most delegates. Klobuchar wins in 3% of the simulations and everyone else falls even below that.

Hah, Trumps worst nightmare. Nice. I like it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30cneQiSE94

Proving once again that Austrians and politics don't go well together.

My candidate Mr. Bernard Sanders ready to take the nomination! The revolution is upon us

Why do you say that? Austria had great politicians like Strache or Haider.