PS4 is still 180k up this year in Japan thanks to Monster Hunter, so I don't think there is any need to panic after a quiet month. We know it's not going to sell great at any point in Japan anymore but it's still going along well enough.

16m seems like a good estimate. Not sure why people think this makes a Q1 2019 release more likely. Who would replace their console when it's still selling 16m a year and nearing 100m sold, and making you well over a billion in profit? Sales so far this year show the PS4 is selling great without a price cut, so why rush it? Go along nicely for the rest of the year, have BF sales, and cut the price Feb/Mar 2019. Then you have Last of Us 2, Death Stranding and Ghosts of Tsushima to push sales also.PS5 is going to be 2020 for sure.

16m is a quite incredible forecast for a consoles sixth financial year. And 264.9m software in one year is phenomenal too

Gratulation @PS4

And respect for your work, Sony is investing the most money in video game productions in recent years - that's really great for us and the players!

Over 34m ps plus subscribers. 8m increase. Insanity. They'll probably have over 40m subs within 12 months.

Now last years original forcast was only 2m higher then this one. Expect it to be increased and for the ps4 to sell 17 or 18m.

Sony must be looking at the games this year and thinking they can easily sell 17 or 18m at the current price + holiday deals. So they're going for major profit. Software sales will be monstrous, digital ratio increasing and ps plus over 40m. Plus a huge margin on hardware. They are likely building a war chest of profits to invest into next gen.

Personally I've predicted a ps4 Pro slim, and ps4 super slim at e3 with a price cut but maybe that won't happen. If not then it will be next year. It would be funny if FY2018 was say 17.5m sales and then FY19 increased to 20m+. If the above happens it's possible.

So with titles such as detroit, god of war, spiderman, rdr2 among the other block busters hitting this year Sony must be confident a €300 machine can keep selling big numbers.

I'd ignore him when it comes to OSs. He's obsessed with Sony coming out with their own global OS for their phones, computers, and consoles, even though it makes absolutely no sense at this point in time and would be about a decade or so too late to even make a dent in that market. 

Wow

It would be up alot more if there wasnt stock issues constantly the last two months (holding it back).
PS4 is not even close to dead in japan, if its doing better than last year dispite there being really low stock to buy.

16m is low imo.... last year it shipped 18.5m and sold through 20.6m as Klaudkill stated earlier on in the thread.

Why would it only do 16m this year? (down 4,6m from last?) if it has God of War, Spiderman, Detroit,... ect this year, and the option to go to 199$? Its a pessimistic/very conservative forecast.

You need to change your name to GiggleGrunger, lol. And I agree with you. PS4 is currently above its sale YOY in the region and also has been supply constrained for about a month, as well. It just needs more supply and a lower price. 

@ OP

I wouldn't worry about the forecast. Sony was conservative last year, too. I'm sure they'll raise it by at least 1M in the coming months. However, it does point to a price cut not happening until late this year. We'll probably get one to $199 for BF, with a permanent one to $249 after.

Also, I'm feeling even more confident about late 2019 for PS5. We have the dev kit rumors out there. Sony is expecting to see a decline in  PS4 sales in FY2018, with another slightly larger one undoubtedly in FY2019, even without PS5 launching. And now Sony has announced they have increased R&D. The picture is coming together. 

Does this include PS+? I assume it has to.

Whats the surplus from the last FY?

Cause whatever that surplus is plus what they plan on shipping this year can paint a better picture of how much they really plan on selling.

The 16 million, to me, addresses some of the stock issue concerns. I don't know if its a component shortage or what but -16% in shipments year over year seems a bit steep (with the lineup this year of GOW, Spiderman and RDR2) Also these numbers were generated earlier in the quarter where PS4 shipments seemed soft. I feel like GOW alone will cause them to raise that number soon.

FY18 -- 96M (16M with no raise)
FY19 -- 109.5M (13.5M)
FY20 -- 120M (10.5M)
FY21 -- 128.5 (8.5M)
FY22 -- 134.5(6M)

FY23 (10 year plan over) 137M