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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Mario Odyssey, Breath of the Wild, and Splatoon 2 will all pass 10 million

 

What do you think?

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curl-6 on 16 June 2017
monocle_layton said:

On the bright side, embracing the worst means there's little to no room for disappointment.

Optimistic pessimism. :P



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jason1637 on 16 June 2017

Mario will probably do around 50 million. Splatoon should do around 10m and os should Zelda maybe 30m.



the_dengle on 16 June 2017

Are we counting Wii U version of BOTW as well?



jason1637 on 16 June 2017
mZuzek said:
jason1637 said:

Mario will probably do around 50 million. Splatoon should do around 10m and os should Zelda maybe 30m.

I'm sorry to break it down to you, but there is absolutely no way Splatoon is selling just one third of Zelda's numbers.

I think Switch will be huge and sell around 200m and Nintendo first party games have a good attach rate. Also the first splatoon sold 4m on a 13m fanbase so with 200m this should do over 10m.



Keybladewielder on 16 June 2017

I agree with you

Those games are evergreen titles and will sell for the years to come (well, with  the exception of the Wii U version of Zelda)



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maulinks on 16 June 2017

Odyssey will definitedly sell over 10 million - Mario appeals to a far wider audience than Zelda and Splatoon. I'll go ahead and say there's a good chance this will be the best lifetime seller of the Switch. (Depending on what the new Pokemon looks like)

Zelda doesn't usually do over 10 million, but Breath of the Wild has a chance due to the excellent reviews it has. Splatoon 2 will definitedly do better than the previous installment, but I will be surprised if it sells over 10 million games.

Let's remember that the typical Nintendo best sellers who sell over 15 million units are usually in the mario family (mario kart, galaxy, etc) and Pokemon.



jason1637 on 16 June 2017
mZuzek said:
jason1637 said:

I think Switch will be huge and sell around 200m and Nintendo first party games have a good attach rate. Also the first splatoon sold 4m on a 13m fanbase so with 200m this should do over 10m.

Wait. You're actually serious?

I think its possible.



Dulfite on 16 June 2017
VAMatt said:
Unlikely, as those games all launch when the system has a small install base. Nintendo games tend to have good legs. But, assuming Nintendo keeps a solid stream of good games coming to the system, it will be difficult for early games to sell millions of copies for years after release.

Unlike other devices, Nintendo games don't have redundancy in cycles (other than pokemon), so yes they do continue to sell well. It's not like Call of Duty Black ops having to compete with Modern Warefare, Infinite Warfare, or WWII. There is typically only one metroid per system, one main 3d zelda, one main 3d mario adventure game, one Splatoon. Call of duty has to worry about Battlefront, and Battlefield, and medal of honor, etc. There is no competition for Zelda, or Mario, or Splatoon on Nintendo devices because there aren't any games like those on Nintendo devices. Nintendo has brillantly maintained horizontal monopolies on genres of video games on their systems for years, and it is only expanding into new genres (Splatoon is 3rd person shooter and Arms is first person boxing). In fact, the less 3rd party games that come to Nintendo devices, the more their games sell because of their continued monopoly on those genres on their devices. It is brilliant.



TheBraveGallade on 16 June 2017
Dulfite said:
VAMatt said:
Unlikely, as those games all launch when the system has a small install base. Nintendo games tend to have good legs. But, assuming Nintendo keeps a solid stream of good games coming to the system, it will be difficult for early games to sell millions of copies for years after release.

Unlike other devices, Nintendo games don't have redundancy in cycles (other than pokemon), so yes they do continue to sell well. It's not like Call of Duty Black ops having to compete with Modern Warefare, Infinite Warfare, or WWII. There is typically only one metroid per system, one main 3d zelda, one main 3d mario adventure game, one Splatoon. Call of duty has to worry about Battlefront, and Battlefield, and medal of honor, etc. There is no competition for Zelda, or Mario, or Splatoon on Nintendo devices because there aren't any games like those on Nintendo devices. Nintendo has brillantly maintained horizontal monopolies on genres of video games on their systems for years, and it is only expanding into new genres (Splatoon is 3rd person shooter and Arms is first person boxing). In fact, the less 3rd party games that come to Nintendo devices, the more their games sell because of their continued monopoly on those genres on their devices. It is brilliant.

And now that ninty is focusing on ONLY ONE console they could at least keep up with the output of sony's third party AAA titles with first party games and a few other franchises (matching persona with SMT (even though I REALLY want persona on switch), and we have stuff like bayo, and fifa exists) and since this thing will be INSANE in japan lots of japanese third parties will jump ship, especially vita focused devs.



TH3-D0S3R on 16 June 2017

Personally I think ARMS serves as some sort of outlier to possibly see just how well Splatoon 2 will sell (newer IPs, genres not yet well covered on Switch). I think if ARMS puts up numbers close to MK8D in it's first weekend on the market or sells around 4-6 million by the end of 2017, Splatoon 2 should have no problem beating it, seeing as how Splatoon is more generally well known and beloved by the Nintendo community as compared to ARMS. Lifetime I think Splatoon 2 will sell 12-15 million, and Breath of the Wild will sell around 11 million by the time the new Zelda is teased/shown.