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Personally I think ARMS serves as some sort of outlier to possibly see just how well Splatoon 2 will sell (newer IPs, genres not yet well covered on Switch). I think if ARMS puts up numbers close to MK8D in it's first weekend on the market or sells around 4-6 million by the end of 2017, Splatoon 2 should have no problem beating it, seeing as how Splatoon is more generally well known and beloved by the Nintendo community as compared to ARMS. Lifetime I think Splatoon 2 will sell 12-15 million, and Breath of the Wild will sell around 11 million by the time the new Zelda is teased/shown.