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Forums - Sales Discussion - Gen-over-gen marketshare report

psrock on 20 December 2012
man-bear-pig said:
Oh, and no console is 'dominating' anywhere. The X360 is doing great in USA and Europe though (better than ANYONE would've expected 7 years ago)...all thanks to Microsoft spending billions to establish the Xbox brand.


They do have a great product, a great online and tons of 3rd party support, and released a year before anyone else's too. All I'm saying is America is not enough to win next gen. 



 Next Gen 

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TheLastStarFighter on 20 December 2012

It was a dramatic change of fortunes last gen. The reasons this happened were that a)Microsoft launched first b) Nintendo moved away from the child niche to a system that was the most "adult-looking" in its simple white box c) Nintendo offered a mainstream appealing interface that had a wow factor d) Nintendo and Microsoft were much cheaper than Playstation e) Playstation lost exclusive 3rd party support. f) Playstation's mainstream hook (blu-ray) failed as online streaming became the new "format" for movies supplanting DVD.

Right now I think it's much too early to say how it will pan out for 8th gen. However, I would estimate based on a)Nintendo launched first b) Nintendo will be the cheapest c) Nintendo having a very strong brand in Japan d) Microsoft using Live to hold customers from one generation to the next e) XBox being a solid brand in America f) lack of third party exclusivity g) Nintendo's 1st party software mass appeal h) mainstream appeal of tablets,

That we will see:

WiiU 45%
NextBox 32%
PSOmni 23%



psrock on 20 December 2012

Can those who believe MS will win next Gen show me how, just how this going to happen.



 Next Gen 

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man-bear-pig on 20 December 2012
Carl2291 said:
It is impressive what they did. Im not denying that. The argument is though that the Billions of $$$ spent hasnt helped them dominate. I dont think it will suddenly make them dominate next gen when theyre facing the "gaming giants".

Look at m-b-p's prediction.

Microsoft - 47%
Nintendo - 33%
Sony - 20%

That is clearly the Nextbox dominating. Anywhere over 45% in a 3-way dance is dominating.

I asked how. He said $$$. That $$$ hasnt made them dominate anywhere. They will end with substantial leads in 2 countries - USA and UK, after 11 Years of Billions of Dollars.


Now that the Xbox brand is fully established (due to Microsoft spending billions), they can BUILD on it in the next gen by spending MORE DOLLERZ. Get it?



My prediction threads:

Wii U will sell under 40m units (made on 14th September 2012)

PS Vita will sell under 20m units (made on 30th September 2012)

Wii U will sell under 7m in 2013 - I was right

Halo 4 first 9 weeks sales prediction

PS4 to be down YOY in 2015

Kasz216 on 20 December 2012
man-bear-pig said:
Carl2291 said:
Cool. Marketshare this gen is quite irrelevant though in the grand scheme of things looking at that.

The leader went from ~50% in its prime and will finish in the 30-40% range, along with the 2nd and 3rd place consoles at the end of the generation.

Also worth noting, is that the 2nd and 3rd place consoles both also had better 3rd party support.

Next gen marketshare?

Sony - 37%
Ninty - 33%
Microsoft - 30%

Once again, all 3 in the 30-40 range.


How do you think Sony will achieve that? They're in last place this gen and they're in the worst postition financially of the big 3, so they won't be able to give the PS4 the huge push (marketing, etc.) that Microsoft and (to a lessor extent) Nintendo can.

All it takes really is the Wii U to not be that successful.  Microsoft sort of is limited by Japans xenophobia in the console market.  Of course it could just as eaisly end up with Sony in the back with heavy Nintendo support out of Japan. (quite possible)

 

Europe will likely remain a sony stronghold as long as they have Gran Turismo.



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kain_kusanagi on 20 December 2012

This is what will happen:

8th gen:

1st - Nintendo (Wii): 33.35%

2nd - Microsoft (X360): 33.34%

3rd - Sony (PS3): 33.31%

 

Balance will be achieved. Nintendo and MS fanboys will be content, but Sony fanboys will still go berserk over tiny percentage and scream accusations of undertracking and bias. Nobody will pay any attention the the countless AAA games on each platform, but instead fight over tenth of a percent review scores. This will lead to the first and nuclear attack in the console wars leaving the world as a smoldering lifeless desert. One Sony fanboy will crawl from under a rock and with his last breath and a hate filled heart he will wisper, "Believe".

This is how the world ends.



man-bear-pig on 20 December 2012
TruckOSaurus said:
Another interesting bit of data is the growth of the industry in general.

The total from the big 3 for the 6th gen is about 200 million (you can add a million or two because of the PS2 tracking issue). The total for the 7th gen is already at 240 million with surely many more millions to go.

Without a phenomenon like the Wii, I'm not sure the 8th will be able to grow over the 7th. What do you guys think?


I think total console sales will be down next gen. There will be ALOT of competition in the consumer electronics market due to tablets, smartphones, etc. and the general public will choose the aforementioned products before they get a console. Also, casuals will be satisfied by smartphone apps and won't buy consoles.

However, emerging markets may counteract this fall. Who knows...



My prediction threads:

Wii U will sell under 40m units (made on 14th September 2012)

PS Vita will sell under 20m units (made on 30th September 2012)

Wii U will sell under 7m in 2013 - I was right

Halo 4 first 9 weeks sales prediction

PS4 to be down YOY in 2015

man-bear-pig on 20 December 2012
Kasz216 said:

Europe will likely remain a sony stronghold as long as they have Gran Turismo.


I think Europes love for Gran Turismo is over exaggerated. Do people really have loyalty when it comes to racing games? I don't think so.



My prediction threads:

Wii U will sell under 40m units (made on 14th September 2012)

PS Vita will sell under 20m units (made on 30th September 2012)

Wii U will sell under 7m in 2013 - I was right

Halo 4 first 9 weeks sales prediction

PS4 to be down YOY in 2015

Carl on 20 December 2012
man-bear-pig said:


Now that the Xbox brand is fully established (due to Microsoft spending billions), they can BUILD on it in the next gen by spending MORE DOLLERZ. Get it?

I get what youre saying, I just think its foolish.



                            

man-bear-pig on 20 December 2012

psrock said:
Can those who believe MS will win next Gen show me how, just how this going to happen.

How will it not happen? It's pretty much unanimously agreed that the Wii U isn't going to be as huge as the Wii, and the 360 is the second highest selling console this gen... See where I'm going here?



My prediction threads:

Wii U will sell under 40m units (made on 14th September 2012)

PS Vita will sell under 20m units (made on 30th September 2012)

Wii U will sell under 7m in 2013 - I was right

Halo 4 first 9 weeks sales prediction

PS4 to be down YOY in 2015