Zelda Wii is due out late 2010 now!

I like it the way it is. The first half of the year I have a lot of PS3 games I want to buy. Then the second half of the year I will be buying a lot of 360 games :D

Gran Turismo will be pushing for Game of the Year and has a HUGE following. God of War 3 has its own niche that it appeals to. Dark Reign has potential for buzz also. And you have Final Fantasy due to hit. It is one thing to end up saying Microsoft is going to do well. It is another to throw down a fourth and long dire bomb in hopes you can gloat when no one bothers to reply to this, thinking you scored an awesome point.

On the 360 side, I am awaiting Crackdown 2 and am surprised that you fail to mention Mass Effect 2, which is in the running (the franchise at least) of best RPG this generation.

I also you will be severely disappointed when you find out that Reach fails to move as many consoles as you would think it has. If everything Halo has NOT persuaded large numbers to buy a 360, then Reach isn't either, even if it is the best Halo ever.

I tend to very much agree.

However, never say never, 'cos you never know...

If Natal crashes and burns, it will likely be of its own accord, and not meeting what the market wants, at a price they want to pay.  So your comment is valid.  However, it may not do this, so you are best being prepared by grabbing the helmet now .

We'll have to wait and see. It's gonna have some tough competition, that's for sure. And while Zelda games have always sold very well, the best-selling one so far was OOT with close to 8 million copies sold. TP never reached 7 across both GC and Wii combined... I can very easily see this new Zelda selling much more, especially if Nintendo delivers on the Motion Plus-swordfighting and manages to successfully refresh the series. Then again, it's all very vague right now, and no-one really knows how big the appeal of stuff like GT5, FF13 and the new Halo will be. Yes they'll be huge, but just how huge and how Zelda will compare to that remains to be seen.

Also, I could easily see whatever the Vitality Sensor brings to the table beat out all competition this year.

MS: Halo in Fall. I don't remember much of fa boost from Gears2 so, not sure what that will do. I don't expect much from NATAL. Not a game announced.

SONY: GT5 in Summer [Spring for Japan]. Huge amount of exclusives in Q1 and 2. Expect a few announced games with no release windows set yet in the later half of the year. PSWand actually has a few announced titles. Nothing major but a few familiar names like Ape Escape.

-3D, Will be much bigger than Natal Imo. Seriously, go to the movies to see a 3D showing and it's packed out. Not to mention estimated sales of 3DTV's by 2011 look quite big, really promising.
-Lots of really neat bundles like the 360 had this year.

Why would those IPs be any stronger than Zelda?

If Nintendo implements motion+ correctly and designs the game to make new fans, Zelda Wii should have no problems with at least selling on par with those games.

I see 2010 sales in the same order as 2009 sales.
DS > Wii > PS3 > X360 > PSP

I don't see anything that will change that.

A few comments:

1) Comparing software lineups for the year in January always has it's problems.
- Many games for 2010 are still unannounced. ( see L4D2, SMB Wii, Wii Fit +, others last year)
- Games get delayed. GoW 3, Mass Effect 2, GT5, Splinter Cell Conviction, Alan Wake were all hyped as 2009 system sellers in January of last year.
- Some hyped games turn out to suck. (Haze, Conduit, Too Human)
- You never know what exclusive really is not exclusive. (FFXIII, SO4, Bioshock)

2) Very few title in 2010, not matter how great, will give the PS3/360 more than a temporary hardware bump. They might sell hardware, but not at a sustained higher level. (GT5 might be the exception in Europe)

3) Wii Sports was the killer app that sold the Wii motion controller to the masses. They played it once, immediately had fun and wanted to get one for themselves. Until i see the killer app that will attract casual players to Natal/Sony's wand, I am skeptical of their long term appeal to the casual player.

4) All three console makers could slash their price in 2010 if needed. A price cut will most likely come from the 3rd place console first, followed by the others, depending on sales. Remember, everyone swore a $299 PS3 was not possible and the Wii had no reason to have a price drop in January of last year.