Forums - Sales Discussion - ioi vs ZorroX :: Japan prediction Contest for Wii & PS3 Holiday Sales. :P

Was just bored n had lot of time to kill so i decided to create a thread to check the prediction accuracy by ioi & ZorroX

These numbers r taken from http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1 thread.

 

 


Wii PS3

ioi's Orig ioi's Upd ZorroX' Orig ZorroX's Upd Actual Last Year      ioi's  ZorroX's Actual Last Year
27-Sep-09 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 12,415 26,183  30,000 42,000 45,430 8,370
04-Oct-09 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 33,831 25,691       30,000 47,000 37,642 7,400
11-Oct-09 41,500 41,500 41,500 41,500 30,017 22,214       28,000 40,000 30,081 5,875
18-Oct-09 38,500 38,500 38,500 38,500 28,596 25,538       25,000 45,000 28,902 4,810
25-Oct-09 36,000 25,000 36,000 36,000 25,560 24,671       23,000 40,000 30,793 4,056
01-Nov-09 45,000 35,000 55,000 45,000 28,056 24,086       31,000 65,000 36,896 38,171
08-Nov-09 42,500 36,000 42,500 30,500 28,017 26,890       27,500 55,500 46,422 22,399
15-Nov-09 55,000 42,000 55,000 37,500 24,982 28,922       31,000 52,000 36,106 20,426
22-Nov-09 145,000 40,000 115,000 35,000 31,046 37,800       31,000 51,000 32,195 17,895
29-Nov-09 105,000 52,500 75,000 47,000 44,514 45,970       38,500 55,500 43,207 35,339
06-Dec-09 95,000 155,000 85,000 125,000 104,193 55,405       49,500 60,500 54,430 28,432
13-Dec-09 110,000 135,000 100,000 120,000 138,853 92,392       75,000 95,000 77,669 32,169
20-Dec-09 180,000 190,000 125,000 155,000 200,757 141,141     175,000 245,000 243,453 38,431
27-Dec-09 215,000 255,000 145,000 175,000 230,985 148,627     125,000 195,000 117,927 47,464
03-Jan-10 165,000 165,000 115,000 130,000 175,627 130,613     110,000 180,000 121,386 64,970
10-Jan-10 65,000 65,000 75,000 50,000   42,843       47,500 97,500   29,240
17-Jan-10 50,000 50,000 50,000 40,000   31,632       40,000 70,000   20,251
24-Jan-10 40,000 40,000 40,000 35,000   26,226       36,500 56,500   17,765
31-Jan-10 35,000 35,000 35,000 30,000   24,093       33,250 53,250   16,932
Total Till Now 1,336,500 1,273,500 1,091,500 1,079,000 1,137,449 856,143 829,500 1,268,000 982,539 376,238
Grand Total 1,526,500 1,463,500 1,291,500 1,234,000   980,937 986,750 1,458,750   460,417
                     
          Wii       PS3  
At Start         8,537,012       3,597,048  
To Achieve         10,000,000       5,000,000  
Total Diff         1,462,988       1,402,952  
Ach Till Now         1,137,449 33%     982,539 161%
Curr Total         9,674,461       4,579,587  
Remaing         325,539       420,413  

Although its too early to judge which prediction is better, but i think probably the Wii n PS3 will reach the milestones together or within 1, 2 weeks of each other... 

ps. I hope ioi n ZorroX dont mind my taking these numbers n starting a thread on these prediction.. Just wanted to keep an eye.. hopefully i will be updating them weekly.. 

pps. one more prediction can also be added in this contest. 

Disclaimer: The original prediction were initially made by ioi n ZorroX in following thread around the same time. The original numbers are under "Orig" postfix

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1

But after the change in some release dates of Wii titles ioi updated his Wii estimates on 22/10 in the same above thread. Some people asked me to make it unbiased i should request ZorroX to update the estimates also in light of release date change. So i requested ZorroX and he mailed me updated numbers on 06/11. The estimate made before that are untouched. Both updated predictions are denoted by "Upd" post fix.

Btw initially ZorroX used ioi's initial Wii estimates for October n first half of November Wii sales.

PS3 numbers are not changed from the initial estimates.

If anyone has any objection please let me know.



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Good thread. I was going to make it but i couldnt be arsed lol



Nobody's perfect. I aint nobody!!!

Killzone 2. its not a fps. it a FIRST PERSON WAR SIMULATOR!!!! ..The true PLAYSTATION 3 launch date and market dominations is SEP 1st

Seems like their Wii predictions don't differ that much, only at the end of the year that might become slightly interesting. So the main focus will be the PS3 numbers and it seems the real number will be somewhere in between their predictions for the first week.



koffieboon said:

Seems like their Wii predictions don't differ that much, only at the end of the year that might become slightly interesting. So the main focus will be the PS3 numbers and it seems the real number will be somewhere in between their predictions for the first week.

But interesting thing is that their Wii prediction seems to be more off so far.. a bit too high.. let see wot happens in the coming weeks. Does Wii manage to reach higher sales or it stays low.. 



Wii may have some chances WorldWide in the holidays...but Japan?...It goes to the ps 3 this year ^^



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total till now is 63000 for wii, not 53k(use calculator :P)

otherwise very interesting topic



YNWA

kopstudent89 said:
total till now is 63000 for wii, not 53k(use calculator :P)

otherwise very interesting topic

corrected.. thanks...

i think People who like Sony r exaggerating PS3 Slim success a little bit n people who like Wii r banking too much on Wii Price drop n year end Japan line up... so both r little off.. final number will be between them..



They are both way off. Zorro is overestimating the PS3 and ioi is overestimating the Wii.

ioi is Wii biased as we have known for awhile, and Zorro is probably PS3 biased, so no surprises, people are just posting the numbers they would like to see.



Can't wait to see how well sales were end of the year.



Battlefield Bad Company 2 > Modern Warfare 2

Hmm... i mostly used same data for Wii sales, only changed Christmas spike, which i think can be in best case same as last year. Since Wii sales were droping year to year and now with some big games released, it can maintain previous year level sales, but not higher.

Also, you could use: Famitsu - Media Create - VGC
and not only VGC numbers.
And check your math.)