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Forums - Sales Discussion - ioi vs ZorroX :: Japan prediction Contest for Wii & PS3 Holiday Sales. :P

Why do both ioi and Zorro have Wii rising so high for the week of Nov 22nd? Is something happening that week?



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^^
Don't they release WiiIoiFit Plus that week? With full-body WiiMotePlus+Nunchuck+BalanceBoard motion detection?
Instant zillion seller!!!



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Okay, here at last is this week's update from the original Wii to 10M / PS3 to 5M thread.  I've put off doing it because VGC numbers for PS3 are quite a bit off of MC, Famitsu and Dengeki and I decided to wait at least until I had a day off from work (i.e. today) in case there was an adjustment.  MC's numbers are closest (29,977) but this is still more than 5000 units above the VGC numbers.

Speaking of adjustments... In the Oct 10 update, I said that it was the first week that the Wii outsold PS3 since the start of the race.  With adjustments, VGC now shows PS3 with a tiny lead (64 units!) that week.  So this week is the first week that Wii has outsold PS3.  For now anyway...

WEEK ENDING OCT 24 Wii to 10M PS3 to 5M Lead
LTD total 8,667,566 3,763,835 Wii: 4,903,731
Left to target 1,332,434 1,236,165 PS3: 96,269
This week (yoy) 26,079 (+5.7%) 24,798 (+511.4%) Wii: 1,281
Since contest start (yoy) 130,554 (+5.0%) 166,787 (+446.6%) PS3: 36,233


Oh, this week should be adjusted again. Both Famitsu and MediaCreate numbers have PS3 with 30k or so. Surprisingly enough, the wrong VGC numbers this week nearly match ioi's predictions for the PS3



 

 

 

 

 

thread updated with this week numbers and also last week numbers..

Few interesting observations, Wii is almost matching last yr numbers even after the price cut n seeing the next few weeks software release schedule i think Wii is going to just match last yr numbers.. that is around 1 - 1.2 million (till end of January).

PS3 WAS doing more than 4x of last yr numbers till last week, but around this time last yr PS3 had some good software releases in Japan.. but this yr after this week ending November 7 till the release of FFXIII there is not much software releases... so i dont expect PS3 to do like 4x last yr, but more like at most double the last yr. so when all is set n done till January i believe PS3 will be able to do around 1.1 - 1.3 million.



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Update from the Wii to 5M / PS3 to 10M Japan thread.  Check it out here: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1

A couple of notes:

1) As expected, last week's PS3 numbers were adjusted upwards by just under 4k.  Also, last week's Wii's sales have been reduced by about 500.  So... the gap after last week should be about 4500 greater than indicated in my update.

2) PS3's sales are actually down compared to the same week last year despite normally outselling 2008 several times over.  The reason: GTA IV.  This has also more than halved the PS3's yoy percentage increase for the contest period.  Just goes to show you how much things can change when a console has a really good week and how insignificant these past few weeks have been in relation to what's coming.

WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 31 Wii to 10M PS3 to 5M Lead
LTD total 8,694,871 3,801,755 Wii: 4,893,116
Left to target 1,305,129 1,198,245 PS3: 106,884
This week (yoy) 27,719 (+15.1%) 34,126 (-10.6%) PS3: 6,407
Since contest start (yoy) 157,859 (+6.4%) 204,707 (+198.1%) PS3: 46,848


ioi said:
By the way, I did make some edits based on the changed release date for NSMB Wii

OK i just updated the thread with your updated numbers... i updated the numbers from 25th October as you updated your prediction on 21st October... I hope its ok with you.

 

 



Here is the update from the Wii 10M / PS3 5M contest from this thread:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1

WEEK ENDING NOV 08 Wii to 10M PS3 to 5M Lead
LTD total 8,720,587 3,849,212 Wii: 4,871,375
Left to target 1,279,413 1,150,788 PS3: 128,625
This week (yoy) 25,100 (-6.7%) 42,420 (+89.4%) PS3: 17,320
Since race start (yoy) 183,575 (+4.7%) 252,164 (+176.9%) PS3: 68,589


Numbers have been updated for the Week ending 8th November.. Some previous week numbers have also been adjusted..

I think PS3 has now over 70% chance to reach the 5m milestone earlier than Wii reaching 10m milestone..

Looking at the two estimates, it look like PS3 is going to fall between ioi n ZorroX prediction. whereas Both are highly inaccurate on Wii. But checking against last yr numbers, i feel that Wii is just going to repeat last yr performance.

Anyway this is just my opinion



Numbers updated.. PS3 still leading on weekly sales n Wii not only have to cover this weekly difference but over 100k behind in the race to 10M v 5M. So definitely nobody is going to sell over 1.1M in Dec n Jan, so with a strong PS3 lineup in Feb n Mar 2010, things looking good for PS3