Was just bored n had lot of time to kill so i decided to create a thread to check the prediction accuracy by ioi & ZorroX
These numbers r taken from http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1 thread.
| Wii | PS3 | |||||||||
| ioi's Orig | ioi's Upd | ZorroX' Orig | ZorroX's Upd | Actual | Last Year | ioi's | ZorroX's | Actual | Last Year | |
| 27-Sep-09 | 18,000 | 18,000 | 18,000 | 18,000 | 12,415 | 26,183 | 30,000 | 42,000 | 45,430 | 8,370 |
| 04-Oct-09 | 45,000 | 45,000 | 45,000 | 45,000 | 33,831 | 25,691 | 30,000 | 47,000 | 37,642 | 7,400 |
| 11-Oct-09 | 41,500 | 41,500 | 41,500 | 41,500 | 30,017 | 22,214 | 28,000 | 40,000 | 30,081 | 5,875 |
| 18-Oct-09 | 38,500 | 38,500 | 38,500 | 38,500 | 28,596 | 25,538 | 25,000 | 45,000 | 28,902 | 4,810 |
| 25-Oct-09 | 36,000 | 25,000 | 36,000 | 36,000 | 25,560 | 24,671 | 23,000 | 40,000 | 30,793 | 4,056 |
| 01-Nov-09 | 45,000 | 35,000 | 55,000 | 45,000 | 28,056 | 24,086 | 31,000 | 65,000 | 36,896 | 38,171 |
| 08-Nov-09 | 42,500 | 36,000 | 42,500 | 30,500 | 28,017 | 26,890 | 27,500 | 55,500 | 46,422 | 22,399 |
| 15-Nov-09 | 55,000 | 42,000 | 55,000 | 37,500 | 24,982 | 28,922 | 31,000 | 52,000 | 36,106 | 20,426 |
| 22-Nov-09 | 145,000 | 40,000 | 115,000 | 35,000 | 31,046 | 37,800 | 31,000 | 51,000 | 32,195 | 17,895 |
| 29-Nov-09 | 105,000 | 52,500 | 75,000 | 47,000 | 44,514 | 45,970 | 38,500 | 55,500 | 43,207 | 35,339 |
| 06-Dec-09 | 95,000 | 155,000 | 85,000 | 125,000 | 104,193 | 55,405 | 49,500 | 60,500 | 54,430 | 28,432 |
| 13-Dec-09 | 110,000 | 135,000 | 100,000 | 120,000 | 138,853 | 92,392 | 75,000 | 95,000 | 77,669 | 32,169 |
| 20-Dec-09 | 180,000 | 190,000 | 125,000 | 155,000 | 200,757 | 141,141 | 175,000 | 245,000 | 243,453 | 38,431 |
| 27-Dec-09 | 215,000 | 255,000 | 145,000 | 175,000 | 230,985 | 148,627 | 125,000 | 195,000 | 117,927 | 47,464 |
| 03-Jan-10 | 165,000 | 165,000 | 115,000 | 130,000 | 175,627 | 130,613 | 110,000 | 180,000 | 121,386 | 64,970 |
| 10-Jan-10 | 65,000 | 65,000 | 75,000 | 50,000 | 42,843 | 47,500 | 97,500 | 29,240 | ||
| 17-Jan-10 | 50,000 | 50,000 | 50,000 | 40,000 | 31,632 | 40,000 | 70,000 | 20,251 | ||
| 24-Jan-10 | 40,000 | 40,000 | 40,000 | 35,000 | 26,226 | 36,500 | 56,500 | 17,765 | ||
| 31-Jan-10 | 35,000 | 35,000 | 35,000 | 30,000 | 24,093 | 33,250 | 53,250 | 16,932 | ||
| Total Till Now | 1,336,500 | 1,273,500 | 1,091,500 | 1,079,000 | 1,137,449 | 856,143 | 829,500 | 1,268,000 | 982,539 | 376,238 |
| Grand Total | 1,526,500 | 1,463,500 | 1,291,500 | 1,234,000 | 980,937 | 986,750 | 1,458,750 | 460,417 | ||
| Wii | PS3 | |||||||||
| At Start | 8,537,012 | 3,597,048 | ||||||||
| To Achieve | 10,000,000 | 5,000,000 | ||||||||
| Total Diff | 1,462,988 | 1,402,952 | ||||||||
| Ach Till Now | 1,137,449 | 33% | 982,539 | 161% | ||||||
| Curr Total | 9,674,461 | 4,579,587 | ||||||||
| Remaing | 325,539 | 420,413 |
Although its too early to judge which prediction is better, but i think probably the Wii n PS3 will reach the milestones together or within 1, 2 weeks of each other...
ps. I hope ioi n ZorroX dont mind my taking these numbers n starting a thread on these prediction.. Just wanted to keep an eye.. hopefully i will be updating them weekly..
pps. one more prediction can also be added in this contest.
Disclaimer: The original prediction were initially made by ioi n ZorroX in following thread around the same time. The original numbers are under "Orig" postfix
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1
But after the change in some release dates of Wii titles ioi updated his Wii estimates on 22/10 in the same above thread. Some people asked me to make it unbiased i should request ZorroX to update the estimates also in light of release date change. So i requested ZorroX and he mailed me updated numbers on 06/11. The estimate made before that are untouched. Both updated predictions are denoted by "Upd" post fix.
Btw initially ZorroX used ioi's initial Wii estimates for October n first half of November Wii sales.
PS3 numbers are not changed from the initial estimates.
If anyone has any objection please let me know.
