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Forums - Sales Discussion - Heavenly Sword - 77.445 first week- flop or not flop sales?

mitsuhide said:
So 3rd in the US charts and only 4 days on sale is bad all of a sudden.Also it is a new IP and i think the bad press abou LAIR has rubbed off on HS which is so wrong but Sony still has exclusive games in the bag for this year:
HAZE
Ratchet&ClankFuture:ToolsOfDestruction
Folklore
Uncharted:Drake'sFortune
UnrealTournement3
Singstar(appeals to the casual crowd,maybe not on a £400/$500 console)
EyeOfJudgement
Wipeout HD

Thats a good long list for now until November, December hasnt been posted on the Playstation site which strangely enough still has GTAIV for October release here in Europe...

I hope they have something else coming along because that's not a very impressive list for the console's second holiday season.  UT3 isn't even a real exclusive -- it's released along side of the PC version and an Xbox 360 version will be released as well.



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flop, definitely a flop.



 

The mentality of many of the posters in this thread is a flop.

Motorstorm did 200k its frst month, it has surpassed a million. It is looking very much like HS will manage 200k in its first month.

Hs will have decet legs on the virtue that there really is not any other decent action game untill 2008, short or not HS has plenty great qualites about it ans has little competition in its genre.



justincoool said:
keep dreaming damkira? 2008 is Sony's coming. We know they need $399, and familiar franchises. ms is coffined in japan. K eep dreaming !

Right, right.

Just like Virtua Fighter 5 would bring PS3 domination.

Just like Motorstorm would bring PS3 domination.

Just like the price cut would bring PS3 domination.

Just like Lair, Warhawk and Heavenly Sword would all bring along PS3 domination.

The Playstation brand went from having the record of the most consoles sold to being DEAD last. I know that must be hard for any business, even one who makes all sorts of inferior consumer electronics.

 

 

 

 

 



Jam said:
The mentality of many of the posters in this thread is a flop.

Motorstorm did 200k its frst month, it has surpassed a million. It is looking very much like HS will manage 200k in its first month.

Hs will have decet legs on the virtue that there really is not any other decent action game untill 2008, short or not HS has plenty great qualites about it ans has little competition in its genre.

Motorstorm sold well in Japan, Heavenly Sword will not (look at God of War sales to understand) ...
Motorstorm has a lot of replay value (mainly due to Online Gameplay), Heavenly Sword does not ...
Motorstorm came out at a time of year when there was little competition from anything, Heavenly Sword is comming out at a time of year when everyone and their dog is releasing their best games ...

 

 



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It flopped. I was one of the posters on the other thread predicting 200K in sales. I figured since Lair did close to 100K(well that is what it was showing at the time) that it would least double it. Better game, better reviews, more hype I figured 2X Lair was a definite.

Anyways I see a lot of excuses getting posted on this thread, however no matter which way you spin it 77K for a big title like this is really bad. Mediocre 360 games debut at more than 77K



For a supposed AAA title HS flopped. There is a sliding scale applied to games based on their budget, hype, advertising, history, etc. Now if say Dragon Blade or Viva Pinata, low budget, no hype, no advertising, no history games were made for the PS3 and sold 77k in the first week that would not be a flop. However, for the huge budget, system saving, massively advertised, spiritual successor to God of War 77k is a flop.

Another scale useful for judging a game's success is the financial scale. In this case the question is does the game's first week sales show any indication that the game will make a profit. Sadly for Sony 77k in week 1 is not enough for a game of that type to make a profit when it needs to sell 600-800k. HS will be lucky to hit 400k given how game sales normally work out. This doesn't directly matter to gamers but it does indirectly because it shows how much trouble Sony is having if an expectated major profit earner becomes a money loser which may eventually affect Sony fans at some point.



Do you smartguys think I should use logarythms calculating the numbers and getting 135k in my calculations?
Or should I use the statistic raws of distribution or linear programming for statistical analysis? The most of you was unable even to calculate the correct number of days passed from the date of release. The term of sales used in calculations (3 days) is extremely small to have a huge deviations to use more precise method of statistical analysis.
I'll try to proven my easiest way of simple dividing or multiplying on the simle example of a bit more complex method. Like in a basic school with apples and oranges.
The last week of reported sales began at Sunday and ended at Saturday, right? An usual boost of sales happens at wekends. Statisticaly people spend 2/3 of their money for 'easy stuff' like enterntainment, games etc at weekends.
Sunday was not included in the last week's sales so you can easily add at least 33% to 77000.
So we got 2 unaccounted days left. Averagely the rest 33% can be divided by 5 working days to get 13%. Deviations between working days are not so important in this case. That means that we should add at least 46% to the 77000.
So we get 112 000 (calculated) copies sold making HS to be at the top of the list.
HS is not a highly anicipated title. It is a new title. It is not overhyped. PS3 has the lack of good titles for it. That all means that there was no considerable boost of sales for the first 1-2 days. An average PS3 owner can come to a shop without a high intention of buying exactly HS. It let me consider that HS will have steady and not very high sales for a few weeks. Dont forget that you here are just a tiny part of console owners (dreamers) who are a little more informed.

But this calculations wont work for a highly overhyped and advertised title when sales boost when sales are based on agiotage of first saling hours or days.



so what? most games don't get the full week anyway, bioshock and metroid sure didn't. 4 days including friday and saturday is plenty, and is not an excuse.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

damkira said:
justincoool said:
keep dreaming damkira? 2008 is Sony's coming. We know they need $399, and familiar franchises. ms is coffined in japan. K eep dreaming !

Right, right.

Just like Virtua Fighter 5 would bring PS3 domination.

Just like Motorstorm would bring PS3 domination.

Just like the price cut would bring PS3 domination.

Just like Lair, Warhawk and Heavenly Sword would all bring along PS3 domination.

The Playstation brand went from having the record of the most consoles sold to being DEAD last. I know that must be hard for any business, even one who makes all sorts of inferior consumer electronics.

 

 

 

 

 


Inferior electronics?



 

mM