As a minimum I guess that is ok - I still stick with my ?prediction? of a potential market for the Wii of 500m - maybe even higher. Whether it lasts that long before Ninty introduce a Wii II - no idea.
In general, I agree with everything John says.
Something funny happened this last weekend. With my new fangled 50'' Plasma sitting in my living room... games on the Wii now look amazing. I was worried that the increased screen size would render them ugly somehow... not at all. Actually sort of blown away.
Tried RE4, Mercury Revolution (a really cool game BTW!), Strikers (amazing on this thing)... and the best one of all... Excitetruck. Truly amazing.
If I was worried about gfx looking dated - its now such a non-issue. And all this for "first-gen" titles.
Ninty will hit their targets by March '08 - and then we'll see what sort of production figures they plan for '08. I think you'll see about 25m units shipped in '08-'09 (maybe up to 30m). Most of those will sell, and you will see about 50m install base by March '09.
Bring on Metroid & Galaxy - then I can't wait to see what hits next year. You will then see some real innovation start to hit.