JohnLucas 1uped in your own thread by SSJ! How embarrassing!
I have a feeling Nintendo will stick with the Wii for a loooooong time. They are already proving that better graphics have no influence on them. The only thing that could force them to move early is if they got out-innovated, and I don't see anyone who is going to do that. Nintendo is obviously on a different plane of thought than the rest of the industry, between Brain Age, Nintendogs, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, etc. Another console maker coming up with merely one such industry-redefining mega-hit may mean nothing to Nintendo if they're rolling out one every year.
And who says they won't? The Wii gives them far more freedom than the DS, because they can bring out almost any kind of peripheral. Some people thought Wii Sports was a "tech demo" and Nintendo would spend the next 5 years "proving the Wiimote." Instead, Nintendo are churning out three new peripherals with the gun, the steering wheel and the balance board all in a short time frame. I'm sure they have more than those three cooked up.
The thing that will cause Nintendo to replace Wii is when they have a market-expanding idea that the Wii is incapable of. Even then, the Wii should keep selling long after it's successor comes out, especially if it's dirt cheap by then, and it's own most recent market-expanders aren't done their expanding.
And so if Wii is Nintendo's main console for 7 years, and it sells at the rate DS is selling now (30 million/year), and then has life after that for at least 3 years (like most winning consoles do), then well over 200 million might not be so crazy.
People suggesting that production issues will last for the whole life of the console should be predicting sales well north of 240M.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
