240,000,000

[Magera]

TheSource said:
Alot of this depends on how big the market grows this generation.

Atari - NES/MS = Market ~2x bigger (from 30 million to 65 million)

NES/MS - Gen/SNES = Market 20% bigger (65 million to 80 million)

Gen/SNES - Sat/PS1/N64 = Market ~2x bigger (80 million to 150 million)

Sat/PS1/N64 - DC/PS2/Xbox/GC = Market 30% bigger (150 million to 195 million) - this assumes PS2 reaches 140 million shipped)

Now does the DC/PS2/Xbox/GC market grow 30% to 250 million users total, or does it double to 390 million user total?

I was going to post the exact same thing, except it will more then likely grow min 60% - 110%.

A few things we must all take into consideration when looking at growth of the industry:

1. The population is growing at such a fast rate. in 1961, earths population was only 3 billion people! in just 38 years - 1999 we doubled our population, and every year our populations growth gets faster.

Back in 2000, when PS2 came out, the population was only 6 billion. It is actually now a tad over 6.7 billion, that's a 700 Million population growth over the last 7 years. and by the time this gen is over (7 years X 2.2% growth average per year) - it will reach 7.8 billion or even more.

Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population (Has all links to correct info, wont post all links here though, just click the ref links for yourself).

2. When I was a kid, we had 1 console between 5 of us, now we have all grown up and have families of our own, 3 of us each have a console. (and I'm sure my sis will get her son a console too). so that went from 1 console between us to 3 consoles (Soon to be 4) over the PS1/PS2/PS3 generation. - My wife had 1 console between her, her sis and her brother, now her brother has one and we have one and her sis wants to get a Wii too, so there's growth in purchases of consoles on both sides of our families.

So Kids who owned a PS2 between siblings will more then likely be able to afford a new-gen console for themselves, increasing the total amount of consoles sold.

3. Since last generation was a lul time for growth, (30%), this generation has a much greater chance of being a 100% growth. I would be suprised if it is anything less then 60 - 70% growth but would expect a 80 - 110% (90% average) growth.

150 - 195 mil + 65% = 247 - 320 Mil

150 - 195 mil + 90% = 285 - 370 Mil

So by estimates, the leading console SHOULD be able to be almost, if not more then double the size of the last gen leader. Or at least hit 200 mil min.

 

EDIT - Oh damn, one last thing I forget to mention:

4. if Nin increased production to 2.5 million units per month over 7 years, they would manufacture 210 Million units over that time. How much DS' are they manufacturing curently? I don't see it that hard for Nintendo to increase production to 2.5 even 3 million and more next year if sales are still selling hugely come march 08, and then with a price drop and add ins...