ah good point, forgot about the fact that the number of exclusives for PS3 and 360 are pretty small.  So many multiplats between them.  Guess so used to all Wii games seemingly are only for Wii.  Heck even some games that are multiplat like rayman raving rabbids was, is basically a wii exclusive because of how the control worked for the game

So yea I guess between HD consoles then looking at the same library give or take a few games then price does make more of a factor.  But still I feel that i would be more inclined to get a 360 over a PS3 not becuase of price (which is nice) but because more of my friends have a 360 than a PS3 and thus easier to get:

1. game recomendation

2. borrow games from friends

3. play online with friends

4. talk about the exclusive games with friends

5. both you and friends accustomed to same controller.

Those things can easily cover a price difference, thus why i don't think price is that huge a factor.

 Yeah, those factors matter too. The snowball effect, just like in last gen: "everyone has a PS2, so I will get a PS2".

Jesus... 100 bucks I'd start buying them as presents for my family :p  Even if all they do is watch Netflix and play Lips and You're in the Movies

The 360 will not sell 16M next year. Let's not create inflated exectations.

Squilliam is double counting. He is looking at the growth seen in Q4 and extrapulating it over the whole year. He forgets that Q4 in 2009 will not have the price cut growth effect over Q4 2008.

So what should we expect:

In the USA: The growth from the price cut was pretty modest YOY - about 15% during the holiday season (per MSFT data). This will continue through the first 9 months of the year and will flatten out in Q4 2009 as the compareable 2008 period will already have the price cut built in (so no growth from that).
Since half the annual sales come in Q4 and Q4 2009 will be flat, all together we should see an average growth of 8% for the Americas.

In Europe we are seeing a dramatic growth in Q4 - about 100% or so. Again this growth will continue through 9 months of 2009 and will flatten out in Q4 2009 giving us a 50% growth for the region.

Japan - insignificant for the 360.

So altogether we are seeing 8% and 50% which will give us around a 29% growth YOY.

Since the 360 would have sold about 11.5M in 2008 then we should expect about 3.4M growth in 2009 which will be about 15M or less.

How exactly am I double counting? Im actually assuming that the end of year sales next year will be relatively flat, its the weekly sales during the year which have to catch up to the current Christmas season. A good year will translate to another good Christmas season, the Xbox 360 did 5M sales or 50% more than last year on the back of a price cut. It should do much better after a good years worth of sales, especially if theres another price cut to edge people into a purchase.

Not so sure about that.  The rumoured 'Valhalla' chipset is expected to be released by the end of 2009, which could reduce the cost significantly. 

source: http://www.electronista.com/articles/08/02/15/xbox.360.valhalla.rumor/

I think it's within the realm of a possibility, but as its been said before it's yet to be determined what the competition will do.  MS could even justify taking a slight hit on the consoles too as a predatory pricing 'nail in the coffin' move, if they're more than making up for those losses with high game attach rates, live subscription fees, crazily high profit accessories and arcade game sales.

Through the week before Christmas the 360 is at 10.5 million for the year. Expect another 1.5 million Chirstmas and New Years weeks.

Couple of things to support a 14-16 million sales year.

360 Arcade is at mass consumer price now.
360 is not in short supply going into 2009 as it was going into 2008.
360 has momentum on its side.
RRoD problem is fading into the past and consumers are forgetting about it.
Sales in Others have really taken off since September (Lets even forget about November and December) even if everywhere else sales are flat the growth we will see YoY in Others will boost sales close to those numbers.

Here's what I think will happento the 360:

Without a PS3 price cut: 14 million, above PS3
With a $50 price cut: 12 million, slightly below PS3
With a $100 price cut: 10 million, well below PS3.

It will outsell the Wii in 2009 because eventually people will graduate from the Wii and upgrade to the X360.

You all remember "2008 PS3 numbers VS 2001 PS2 numbers"? =)

16 million...

And Squill even admits he's Crazzy.