The 360 could sell 16 Million consoles next year. (Yes im insane)

[amirnetz]

The 360 will not sell 16M next year. Let's not create inflated exectations.

Squilliam is double counting. He is looking at the growth seen in Q4 and extrapulating it over the whole year. He forgets that Q4 in 2009 will not have the price cut growth effect over Q4 2008.

So what should we expect:

In the USA: The growth from the price cut was pretty modest YOY - about 15% during the holiday season (per MSFT data). This will continue through the first 9 months of the year and will flatten out in Q4 2009 as the compareable 2008 period will already have the price cut built in (so no growth from that).
Since half the annual sales come in Q4 and Q4 2009 will be flat, all together we should see an average growth of 8% for the Americas.

In Europe we are seeing a dramatic growth in Q4 - about 100% or so. Again this growth will continue through 9 months of 2009 and will flatten out in Q4 2009 giving us a 50% growth for the region.

Japan - insignificant for the 360.

So altogether we are seeing 8% and 50% which will give us around a 29% growth YOY.

Since the 360 would have sold about 11.5M in 2008 then we should expect about 3.4M growth in 2009 which will be about 15M or less.