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Forums - Gaming Discussion - What will be the next game(s) to get Haze-ed?

Max King of the Wild on 01 January 2009
Dodece said:
Well technically it seems that the original poster is asking two questions. Either it is what is the next game to flop, or its just name games you think are going to flop. Honestly the second question is boring. We get that question a dozen times every month, but the first question is something we get once in a blue moon. It means you have to be aware of release lists.

To me that would mean either Star Ocean of Killzone 2. Honestly I do not think the expectations for Star Ocean are unrealistic, and Lost Odyssey proved that to be a good launch window. The title will clear a million units in my opinion, and for both the console and the genre that is a very solid showing.

Other posters said it in a diverse way Killzone 2 was basically proclaimed to be the second coming of Christ for two years solid. This game was more then justification for buying the console at full price, and ahem yeah some posters labeled it the Halo killer. Which honestly isn't going to happen. Then to exacerbate the situation the development costs often sighted at sixty million damn near require this game to clear three million unit sales in the first three months during a launch window that cannot support that. Let alone to consumers still glutted from the holidays.

Killzone 2 is probably going to be viewed as a flop. With so much vested it has to perform at insane levels. It not only has to be the gold mine Halo 3 was, but it also has to sell as well. All of which in the middle of February. That cannot happen especially on the PS3 when the user base seems to have gotten itself a case of the blahs. Look at what the did to Resistance, and that was a marquis title. I mean Wii owners do not do that Mario, and 360 owners did not do that to Gears. What is to be made of that.

I am not mind you saying that Killzone 2 will be panned by reviewers. I am just saying that the PS3 owners aren't going to give the game the love it deserves regardless, and it sure as hell is going to be a big loss in some ledger.

 

 lol. sorry but your just plain wrong. in order to turn profit it would have to sell 1.5 million since Sony is publisher and developer... and thats low ball considering squilliam showed a chart showing 38 dollars of 60 dollar game goes to developer



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Dodece on 01 January 2009

@Max King of the Wild

Actually I am taking into consideration other costs beyond your expectations. I am taking into account advertising, profit margin, and the covering of losses. This game cannot simply just make back cost, and be considered a success it has to do much more to justify the loss of liquidity. To be a system seller this games advertising cannot be any less then ten million dollars. Given development cycles the profit margin must also be significant. If your going to pay out once every four years you better damn well pay out well. Finally Sony can't just write off other publishing losses. They do have to cover them, and that is part of the price of being a winner.

Unfair though you may think it. Consumers being ignorant, investors being greedy, and other games flopping. All of these things mean that this game has to do a lot more then just break even. It has no other choice but to be the life of the party. It might end up having cost sixty million, but it better bring in a hundred million. Just to have the forty million to cover everything else so the next game can go into production. Unless you expect Sony to lay down another sixty million in debt for the next game so it can just break even. You cannot spend money if you never actually make money.



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ClaudeLv250 on 02 January 2009

I don't think it's going to happen to Heavy Rain. I think that'll be Indigo Prophecy'd. In other words, it'll catch on with some so it'll be a modest success, unlike Haze which was a complete flop.

But Killzone 2 is my likely candidate, especially if it's as mediocre as its predecessor. If anything, Resistance 2 made me feel this way, and that wasn't even hyped as the second coming the way KZ2 is.



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Zim on 02 January 2009

Im surprised people think it will be halo wars. The game has had a long time in development by a very very qualified developer, it is MS big franchise so they aren't going to let it be bad and sales wise it has halo in the name so should shift a few million.

The conduit also im surprised at. Graphics wise it seems to be doing fine for the wii, controls wise it looks amazing with the amount of customability. Sales wise it really should manage a million. Red steel did so likely most of the people that bought RS will be interested. Review wise I don't think it will be as low as haze by a long stretch.

Heavy rain I agree on. I think review wise it will do ok but I just can't see it selling atm. What is the market for it?

Deadly creatures will surely flop. I really don't think many people are that interested in playing a spider or scorpion =/. Maybe it will do ok though if it manages to get 10year olds who parents won't let them play violent games though.

Even then though I don't think DC or HR will be haze-ed as to me being haze-ed means being a major letdown in terms of story, graphics and then selling badly. I think HR and DC will at least manage to do quite well in reviews.



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Thechalkblock on 02 January 2009

I hope it isn't but possibly The Conduit.



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goddog on 02 January 2009

i could see halo wars floping... id prefer it on the pc...

killzone 2 i expect to flop

heavy rain will confuse too many users

alan wake? will it even come out and play

splinter cell convictions might be one too.... DA was bad... i wont buy the next one with out knowing more about it


TC: Hawx ... I hope its good and it dosent flop but flight sims/arcade shooters havent done well Ace combat 6 sold poorly a game i love

RE 5... will under perform, a combination of the new setting, and poor marketing will hurt. 

 

looking over this again.... the first half of this year is going to be very very rough for publishers i expect most games to under perform, due to a mix of confusion on the  consumer, new/revised IPs, poor advertising, and non traditional releases tied into a stingier buying public.... games from last year should out perform releases until mid to late 09



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Ender on 02 January 2009

I don't know if it's hyped, but Bayonetta looks awful.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXNd_uQyTyQ

 

*Shivers*



ItsaMii on 02 January 2009

The Bionic Commando game. I think that the original game was over rated. This new game looks really boring so far. I don`t know what got into Capcom. I don`t expect good things from Bionic Commando and Splatter House just like Golden Axe Beast Rider, Final Fight Streetwise andAltered Beast.



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BenVTrigger on 02 January 2009

I'm surprised to see so many people saying Halo Wars. I thought anything with Halo in the name is destined to ship at least a million (which is plenty good when releasing on only one system)

Killzone 2 I expect to be VERY high quality and shift somewhere between 2 - 3 million which is very good but not the end all be all sales many ps3 owners are hoping for

as for an actual flop, I see Deadly Creatures, possibly the Conduit, Infamous, and possibly Heavy Rain (may only appeal to a small niche)



Max King of the Wild on 02 January 2009
Dodece said:
@Max King of the Wild

Actually I am taking into consideration other costs beyond your expectations. I am taking into account advertising, profit margin, and the covering of losses. This game cannot simply just make back cost, and be considered a success it has to do much more to justify the loss of liquidity. To be a system seller this games advertising cannot be any less then ten million dollars. Given development cycles the profit margin must also be significant. If your going to pay out once every four years you better damn well pay out well. Finally Sony can't just write off other publishing losses. They do have to cover them, and that is part of the price of being a winner.

Unfair though you may think it. Consumers being ignorant, investors being greedy, and other games flopping. All of these things mean that this game has to do a lot more then just break even. It has no other choice but to be the life of the party. It might end up having cost sixty million, but it better bring in a hundred million. Just to have the forty million to cover everything else so the next game can go into production. Unless you expect Sony to lay down another sixty million in debt for the next game so it can just break even. You cannot spend money if you never actually make money.

 

 Yawn, first I was lowballing the sales figures. Second you said it needs to clear 3 million to make back costs of 60 million when that 60 million figures are from surfer girl... LOL at you for using surfer girl. I would have said that last night but the site got attacked by 7,000 people. Third you are just plain wrong about most of the things you say but you just type so much no one wants to bother with you. fourth don't act condescending when you are in the wrong.l