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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predictions for 2009

zleep said:
@BHR: That's why the GC made a huge comeback after reaching a low right?

And who said the Wii has peaked, you are just too blind. Wii is still selling out and by next year production will be at a steady 2.4/million, compared to this years 1.8 million for more than half of the year. You clearly have no clue of what you are talking, I won't waste my time with a fanboy.

 

Saying the Wii has peaked is obviously silly. I'll agree there. And there is one historical fact that anyone who thinks the Wii has peaked will have to consider: all consoles in history have sold the vast majority of their units after their first price drop. The Wii hasn't seen its first price drop and is still selling out.

The Wii is doing better than the DS was.  It is about 8 million units ahead of the DS given the same point in their respective lifetimes.  And the DS is doing better than ever.

Has the DS had a price drop yet?  It's still $130, right?



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leo-j said:
PS3 will make the biggest comeback in gaming history, if its price is cut by $100

quote me on it.

I thought that the biggets comeback in gaming history was the wii. since nintendo was down with the gamecube and previous n64

 



hallowedbeeddie said:
leo-j said:
PS3 will make the biggest comeback in gaming history, if its price is cut by $100

quote me on it.

I thought that the biggets comeback in gaming history was the wii. since nintendo was down with the gamecube and previous n64

 

 

A $100 price cut for the PS3 wouldn't be enough to make that big of a turnaround.  It would compete with the 360 for yearly sales, but it wouldn't pass the 360's installed base.  The Playstation name has just lost too much of its appeal.



Wow ... should really be in the sony forum judging by the opening OP.

PS3 - 28.5
360 - 39.5
Wii - 80

All platforms to get 8+ AAA games this year.



 

seece said:
Wow ... should really be in the sony forum judging by the opening OP.

PS3 - 28.5
360 - 39.5
Wii - 80

All platforms to get 8+ AAA games this year.

Meh, it isn't that bad. I mean, your predictions for next year, are

Ps3: 9M

X360: 12.5M

Wii: 35M

 

He predicts:

Ps3: 12M

X360: 11M

Wii: 24M

 

So the difference is, he predicts Wii will not sell completely out (4M less than production) while you predict a production increase. Then you're a fair amount pro X360, he is slightly pro Ps3.

 

As for the rest, I think he simply states about what he knows. He doesn't know as much about Wii/X360 games as he does about Ps3 games. Why should he predict for the Wii/360 games then? They will be guesswork, and nothing more.

 

It's a decent OP.



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

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Kantor, you're extremely delusional.

The only plausible thing is 32 million PS3s by the end of next year.



PS3 will probably end this year with 12 mln. YTD.
Stating, that PS3 will sell less or same in 2009 = hater.
Even though, it will be full crisis year, yet too many great games will be released during this time, not to mention, that pricecut or slim version is possible for 2009.
+ Remember FFXIII release in Japan, with this PS3 will do much better in Japan and if GT5 will be released, this too will help a lot. =)



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

leo-j said:
PS3 will make the biggest comeback in gaming history, if its price is cut by $100

quote me on it.

Consider yourself quoted

 

I predict an economic bounce back by christmas 09

I predict gas hits $6 this summer in some places

I predict we will still be in Iraq by next year

I predict an attempted terrorist attacks on US ground

I predict record breaking highs for summer 09

I predict atleast 3 hurricanes to get massive attention and will make us think of Katrina again.

I predict Obama has 60-70% approval rating

I predict KZ2 to actualy pull through for us PS3 owners

I predict infamous to do meh

I predict LBP legs will continue strong after the holidays

I predict R2 to never pass R1 LTD.  Same with MS:PR

I predict GT5 will make it out in 09.  I predict FF13 will make it out in japan in 09

I predict I will have some good times and bad times this next year.

I predict my laptop about to die on me in 5 min

I predict I will come up with more predicitons

I predict VGC will get new members like Rock On, and Megaman and other real charaters.

 



 

My Real Redneck friends


Wii production will edge up to 2.8m - producing around 30m shipped for the fiscal year. Most of these will be sold by end of fiscal year. Wii will edge on 72-74m sold by end of '09.

360 sales will increase on this year by around 10%. MS will sell around 15m 360s for the fiscal year, making it their best ever. Install base will egde up to 40m by end of '09.

PS3 sales will slow considerably in the Jan-March qrt this year - then get a real boost from April-Dec. Sony will release an updated PS3 model, which is "cheaper" but will also have "less features". They will also NOT cut the price of the PS3, but start bundling more with it (i.e. GT5?).

Heavy Rain will effectively flop.

GT5 will be released in fiscal '09, and will end up being the best seller on the PS3.

MS will heavily promote the GTA DLC, and GTA sales on the 360 will make a significant increase.

Wii Sports:Resort - will be easily the biggest seller of '09, and may smash all sales records (as long as its not supply constrained, which it may be).

WiiFit will be the #2nd biggest seller in '09, selling another 10m copies (or close). Nintendo may cut the price, or start releasing WiiFit / Wii bundles.

An original GTA will be announced for the Wii.

An original Final Fantasy will be announced for the Wii (probably another FFXIII spin-off).

FF:CC will be released for the Wii in '09.

Kingdom Hearts will be announced for the Wii in '09.

Mass Effect II will remain a 360 exclusive - timed at least.

Assassins Creed II will be pretty awesome, and be a Xmas title.

Nintendo will have at least one "out of the blue" surprise for everyone - and it may be a Wii Pokemon title.



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

BHR-3 said:

Would like 2 know wat Kantor thinks the price cut 4 ps3 will be Q1 Q2 for his perdiction

$50, if it happens. Bear in mind Q1-Q2 is January-June. It'll go down to $299 only if the slim PS3 is released in 2009.

 



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective