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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predictions for 2009

DMeisterJ said:
Kantor, you're extremely delusional.

The only plausible thing is 32 million PS3s by the end of next year.

We'll see, we'll see. At least I'm not as bad as CrazzyMan!


CrazzyMan said:

1. HW for PS3: 42-45 mln. LOL, X360: 35-38 mln.Probably, Wii: 65-70 mln.Could be, PSP: 65-70 mln.Lower :(, DS: 125-127 mln. =)Sure
2. Pricecut will be only in Autumn OR slim version release with new price. I will hang on to my ridiculous belief!
3. PS3 will be ahead of x360 atleast by 7 mln. by the end of 2009. LOL no...
4. FFXIII will sell over 1.5-2 mln. on first week in Japan Probably and reach 3 mln. by the end of 2009. probably.
5. GT5 will sell over 5 mln. (IF released WW) by the end of 2009. Definitely
6. MGS4 will reach 4.5-5 mln. by the end of 2009. Probably
7. LBP will reach over 5 mln. by the end of 2009. Unlikely
8. KZ2 will sell atleast 1-2 mln. first month Probably and reach over 5 mln. by the end of the year. Possibly
9. PSP will reach 65-70 mln. (probably will have a pricecut) by the end of 2009. Unlikely
10. More(A LOT, mostly Japan) 3rd party PS3 exclusives will be annnounced. Probably
11. Uncharted 2 will reach over 2.5-3 mln. by the end of 2009. Definitely
12. Heavy Rain to sell over 1 mln. by the end of 2009. Definitely
13. FFXIII to be released in NA by the end of 2009. Unlikely Sell atleast 2 times more on PS3, then on x360 in NA. VERY unlikely.
14. RE5 sells better on PS3 by the end of 2009. No, it's a shooter, and it's not big in Japan any more.
15. WKC to reach around 2 mln. by the end of 2009. Maybe
16. Infamous to reach atleast 2-2.5 mln. by the end of 2009. Possibly
17. Quantum theory - atleast 1 mln. by the end of 2009, DS - 500k. Probably
18. KH3 announced for PS360(or atleast for PS3) on TGS09. No, it'll be on Wii. Maybe PSWii.
19. Kojima to announce new PS3 exclusive on TGS09. Maybe
20. Ico 3 and God of War 3 to be released by the end of 2009 or early 2010 Definitely. 1 and 2 mln. in first 10 weeks. Probably
21. SO4 and ToV to be announced for PS3. Unlikely.

 



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"18) PS3 will be $300 by the end of the year"

2 price cuts in one year? I highly doubt it.



 

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I agree with PS3 selling more than the 360 in Europe.



TO GOD BE THE GLORY

Sorry it is too late for the PS3 to catch up. Have you see the software sales in the US chart that ended 12/13! Gears 2, COD WAW, Fallout 3, Fable 2, and L4D are the blockbusters of the year.

The x360 has most of the hardcore gamer, has the price advantage, has Live, heavy marketing. How can PS3 compete with that?

GT5 will outsell Wii on Opening week! Hahaha, please, that is like saying the Detroit Lions will beat the Ny Giants.



Well here are my prediction:

Q1: Halo Wars will outsell Killzone 2.
GTA DLC #1 will sell over 1 million DLC.
At GDC: Bioshock 2 will be announced as a 360 timed exclusive.
Mass Effect 2 is announced and will be X360 exclusive.

Q2: At E3:
Forza 3, Killer Instinct, and Dead Rising 2 announced for fall release.
Megaton announcement for Microsoft: xbox wiimote(newton) announced with games being distributed via xbox live and will be bundled with every Arcade Unit at $199. Diablo 3 is announced and will be x360 console exclusive with cross platform online gaming with PC. And before the end of the conference, Peter Jackson came out of the stand and announced Halo Chronicles!

Q4: Halo OSDT released and sold 3 million copies in one day.
Alan Wake, Splinter Cell Convicton, Killer Instinct, Forza 3, Diablo 3, Mass Effect 2, Bioshoick 2, and Halo OSDT and Dead Rising 2 will be too much for the PS3 come this fall.



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Only one prediction: thanks to FFXIII, the PS3 will have a 5M+ userbase in japan by the end of 09!



RayRay102 said:

Well here are my prediction:

Q1: Halo Wars will outsell Killzone 2. That's a given, it's HALO!
GTA DLC #1 will sell over 1 million DLC. Possibly
At GDC: Bioshock 2 will be announced as a 360 timed exclusive. Unlikely
Mass Effect 2 is announced and will be X360 exclusive. EA doesn't do exclusives.

Q2: At E3:
Forza 3, Killer Instinct, and Dead Rising 2 announced for fall release. Likely
Megaton announcement for Microsoft: xbox wiimote(newton) announced with games being distributed via xbox live and will be bundled with every Arcade Unit at $199. No way. Diablo 3 is announced and will be x360 console exclusive with cross platform online gaming with PC. No*. And before the end of the conference, Peter Jackson came out of the stand and announced Halo Chronicles! Probably. A teaser at best, though.

Q4: Halo OSDT released and sold 3 million copies in one day. Halo 3 didn't sell that much in one day, how could ODST?
Alan Wake Yes, Splinter Cell Convicton Could be on PS3, Killer Instinct Never heard of it, Forza 3 GT5, Diablo 3 Not happening*, Mass Effect 2 multiplat?, Bioshoick 2 timed exclusive/multiplat, and Halo OSDT Expansion and Dead Rising 2 What is that going to do? will be too much for the PS3 (GT5, GoW3, R&CF 2009, Uncharted 2, Heavy Rain, inFamous, Killzone 2) come this fall.

And you said my predictions were ridiculous

*Okay, why would this happen? Blizzard has never made a game for the 360, what could they possibly stand to gain from making it 360 console exclusive? If they put it on 360, they'll put it on PS3.

 



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

RayRay102 said:
Sorry it is too late for the PS3 to catch up. Have you see the software sales in the US chart that ended 12/13! Gears 2, COD WAW, Fallout 3, Fable 2, and L4D are the blockbusters of the year.

The x360 has most of the hardcore gamer, has the price advantage, has Live, heavy marketing. How can PS3 compete with that?

GT5 will outsell Wii on Opening week! Hahaha, please, that is like saying the Detroit Lions will beat the Ny Giants.

Three shooters, a shooter-RPG and an RPG.

Okay, the hardcore gamer thing. It has a larger userbase, yes. But that is caused by the other three things.

Price Advantage: Hence the price cut. Obviously, without a price cut, the 360 will destroy the PS3 next year...

Live: It costs money and PSN becomes better with every patch.

Heavy Marketing: I agree. Sony needs to step up their advertising.

How can the PS3 compete with that? By cutting the price, improving PSN and advertising more. Not difficult.

EDIT: You do know that the PS3 beat the Wii on MGS4's launch week, right? Are you saying that GT5 has less sales potential than MGS4?



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

Kantor said:
RayRay102 said:

Well here are my prediction:

Q1: Halo Wars will outsell Killzone 2. That's a given, it's HALO!
GTA DLC #1 will sell over 1 million DLC. Possibly
At GDC: Bioshock 2 will be announced as a 360 timed exclusive. Unlikely
Mass Effect 2 is announced and will be X360 exclusive. EA doesn't do exclusives.

Q2: At E3:
Forza 3, Killer Instinct, and Dead Rising 2 announced for fall release. Likely
Megaton announcement for Microsoft: xbox wiimote(newton) announced with games being distributed via xbox live and will be bundled with every Arcade Unit at $199. No way. Diablo 3 is announced and will be x360 console exclusive with cross platform online gaming with PC. No*. And before the end of the conference, Peter Jackson came out of the stand and announced Halo Chronicles! Probably. A teaser at best, though.

Q4: Halo OSDT released and sold 3 million copies in one day. Halo 3 didn't sell that much in one day, how could ODST?
Alan Wake Yes, Splinter Cell Convicton Could be on PS3, Killer Instinct Never heard of it, Forza 3 GT5, Diablo 3 Not happening*, Mass Effect 2 multiplat?, Bioshoick 2 timed exclusive/multiplat, and Halo OSDT Expansion and Dead Rising 2 What is that going to do? will be too much for the PS3 (GT5, GoW3, R&CF 2009, Uncharted 2, Heavy Rain, inFamous, Killzone 2) come this fall.

And you said my predictions were ridiculous

*Okay, why would this happen? Blizzard has never made a game for the 360, what could they possibly stand to gain from making it 360 console exclusive? If they put it on 360, they'll put it on PS3.

 

Sorry, but Killzone is going head to head with Halo Wars in Q1.

Yes GT5 will be a monster but judging from Forza 2 and the anticipation for 3, it shold hold up against GT5 in the states at least.

There is already a contract in placed for a trilogy exclusive on the 360 so it will be exclusive to 360 regardless of EA.

Hey if MS paid for Timed exclusive for the first Bioshock, why is it so hard to believe it won't happen again.

Halo ODST will sell about 3 million in first month not day. That was a typo. One month is possible of course.

Until I heard otherwise, Splinter Cell is still scheduled as an exclusive for the 360.

Why is it so hard to believe in a Wiimote. The Mii/avatar was only the beginning and the Newton Wiimote like device was rumored not too long ago. It makes perfect sense for microsoft to test the water to see if they can get some of the casual gamers that are attracted to the Wii.

For all I know none of these will be true but I am just brainstorming my wishes :D.

 



 

Look my prédictions:

 

1) PS3- 34 million

2) X360- 37 million

3) Wii- 71 million

 

4) Sony and Microsoft will announce an PS3 slim et Xbox slim

5) Halo 3: ODST will sell about 5 millions the first year.

6) PS3 will get a price by 100 dollars in March 2009.

7) Final Fantasy XIII will be annouced for Xbox 360 in Japan.

8) BioShock 2 will sell better on X360 and and to be exclusif few month for Xbox 360.

9) Killzone 2 will have sold well over 4 million units by the end of the year

10) Microsoft will announce a new  Halo FPS  for the Q4.

11) MGS4 will not come to the Xbox 360, and will not be announced for the Xbox 360

12) Forza  Motorsport 3 will be released the same month that GT5.

13) Mass effect  2 will be announced exclusively on Xbox 360 for the Q4

14) An MGS4 "Substance" game will be released, exclusively for the PS3

15) GT5 will sell 7 millions WW copies on PS3 first years

16) PS3 will beat 360 WW in sales for 2009.

17) By end of 2009, Sony will introduce the PSP2.

 

18)  More 150k PS3 will sell on the week released of FFXIII in Japan.

19) Nintendo will annouce a new Zelda.