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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predictions for 2009

x360: 39/40 M
ps3: 31/32 M

oh and there will be at least one megaton regarding the 360. MS + $ = guaranteed megatons

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My crazy predictions
1. Wii will be at 65 million, 360 will be at 40 million, PS3 will be at 35 million

2. Nintendo announces Zelda Wii in October, true gamers goes insane, while PS3 and 360 fanboys will do everything they can to dismiss it, while crying on the inside

3. PS3 will see flop after flop, including Killzone 2

4. Resident Evil 5 will sell a combined 2,4 million

5. Capcom will announce RE5 and SF4 for Wii

6. Final Fantasy will not be released

7. DQ9 will sell 2 million week 1

8. Wii-hating and stupid predictions that it's a fad will continue.

9. Kid Icarus still not announced

10. The Conduit will start out slow, but end at 1.5 million sold

11. Sony will slash the PS3 price to $299 by the end of 2009, Nintendo will not slash the price of the Wii, Wii still outsells the PS3

  1. Wii will sell around 30 million in 2009 and breaks all its own records (75 million end 2009)
  2. PS3 won't see a pricecut and will sell 8 million (27 million end 2009)
  3. 360 in its 4th year will sell 9 million (34 million end 2009)
  4. Core games on Wii will be successfull, destroying another meme
  5. We'll see a GTA Wii announced for 2010, based on the PS2 GTA's
  6. A FFXIII game is announced for Wii (not main game)
  7. We'll see something about Zelda Wii. People freak out
  8. No God of War 3 or Gran Turismo 5 in 2009
  9. A original Resident Evil game will be announced for Wii
  10. The Conduit will sell over 1.5 million worldwide
  11. Wii Sports Resort will be the best sold game in 2009
  12. PS3 and 360 will have at least 40 weeks under 10k in Japan
  13. Mass Effect 2 will be 360 exclusive
  14. Killzone 2 will sell over 2 million
  15. Sony will finally have a profitable year by keeping the PS3 price as is
  16. No Wii pricecut in 2009
  17. Storage solution for Wii, still not ideal


Awesome, hopefully this one will be bumped up too. I'll skip doing a lot of reasoning here, but if you want reasons for why I claim as I do, just ask me, and I'll post it. Also, I'm sticking to mainly Nintendo predictions simply because those are the titles I know the best. I don't feel I know enough about the Ps360 titles to make fair predictions for those.

Wii: 74M (28.5M sold) - 52.5%

X360: 37.2M (10.2M sold) - 26.4%

Ps3: 29.7M (10.2M sold) - 21.1%


DS: 128M (30M sold)

PsP: 55M (11M sold)


1. Wii Fit will be one of the top 3 best sellers of 2008.

2. Wii Sports Resort will be in the top 3 as well.

3. Mario Kart Wii will be in the top 10. It will also outsell Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas, and beat all previous generation console games. 

4. Wii Music will sell 2M or more in 2009, leaving it at 4M or more.

5. Wii Play, New Super Mario Bros. and Wii Fit will pass 20M. This means that 5 current gen titles will have passed it, and only 6 in total from previous generations. Mario Kart Wii will beat 20M sometime, but it is doubtable that it will do so in 2009.

6. Mario Kart DS will outsell Gran Turismo 3 - A Spec, becomming the 2nd best selling racer ever (behind Mario Kart Wii)

7. Super Mario Galaxy will have sold more than Super Smash Bros. Brawl by the end of 09. Neither will have broken 10M, but both will be pretty close to it. 

8. Gran Turismo 5 will, if released in Q2 or first half of Q3, sell 4M or more by end of 09. Lifetime will exceed 7M, and come close to 10M, potentially beating Gran Turismo 2 and 4.

9. Ps3 will pass Xbox 360 in Europe.

10.  Animal Crossing: City folk will end at around 5M.



Okay, and now I'll be going on an edge here! I'll predict the total software sales. Certainly, this will be very wrong.

Wii: 240M. Between 45% and 55% will be first party titles.

X360: 185M

Ps3: 125M


DS: 185M

PsP: 45M



Continuing (not edit)


11. Ps3 will by far have the highest quality titles, going by reviewers (Metacritic). Wii will be the definate last.

12. Carnival Games (Wii) will outsell the induvidual versions of GTA IV in 09 (for the year, not total). It will sell over 1M. It will be Take 2's best selling 2nd year title.

13. Fire Emblem DS will be the first Fire Emblem title ever to sell 1M WW (far fetched as hell)


Regional breakdown for the machines.


Wii: 74M (28.5M sold)

Americas: 33.5M (13M sold)

Others: 30.25M (13M sold)

Japan: 10.25M (2.5M sold)


X360: 37.2M (10.2M sold)

Americas: 21M (5.6M sold)

Others: 14.5M (4.25M)

Japan: 1.2M (350K sold)


Ps3: 29.75M (10.2M sold)

Americas: 11M (3.8M)

Others: 15.25M (5.5M)

Japan: 3.5M (0.9M)


14. No new handheld will be announced.

15. Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft will all post earnings on their financial reports.


If I add more, I'll state when they were added and that I added them.


Oyvoyv out. Cya next year (to myself?) :P

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

well, here are my predictions:
Wii will be at 80 million by the end of 2009, 70 million at least.
Xbox360 will be at 38 if no price cut or new SKUs and 40million if there was.
PS3 will be at 29 million if no price cut and 31 milion with 50$ cut and 34 million with 100$ cut.
God of War 3, GT5, FF13 one of the three will not be released in NA during 2009.
Bioshock 2 will be a timed exclusive for 360, then PC then PS3.
No price cut for PS3 at least until late Q3.
Heavy Rain will be a sleeper hit.
FF13 could be a disappointment.(i hope not, but all of the recent square games have been crap)
New peripheral for Wii will be announced.
no MGS will be on 360 in 2009(maybe some annoucements)

lastly, at least 1/3 of the predictions will be false, lol.

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Predictions. Ps3 will outsell 360 in Japan by 2 million by 3 reasons.

1. Final fantasy 13
2. Gran turismo 5
3. Price cut


Instead of calling it predictions for 09, this thread should have been called wishes for 09. Moat of what it has been written here has 0.001% chance of happening. It's better to wait and see, predicting without having a proper idea of what you are saying is like playing the lottery and expecting to win.

leo-j said:
PS3 will make the biggest comeback in gaming history, if its price is cut by $100

quote me on it.

I don't think they can beat what the xbox 360 showed us this year


 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.


Here we go

End of 09

Wii 69.9 mill

Ps3 33.8 mill

360 38.6 mill


Ps3 will beat the Wii in HW sales in Japan at least 10 weeks in 09  

PS3 will beat the Wii in WW HW sales at least 4 weeks in 09

PS3 will have a 300$ or less price tag b4 09 ends  

PS3 will have a new sku b4 09 ends  

PS3's gap to 360 will never be larger than 9,238,829 in 09

PS3's gap against 360 will be less than 5,883,984 b4 09 ends

PS3's gap against 360 in EU or Total Other will be less than 400k b4 09 ends 

PS3 will outsell the 360 in WW HW in November and December of 09

PS3 will have at least 1 week were it well sell 1 mill or more HW WW

PS3's RE5 will have a better 1st week than the 360's WW     

PS3's RE5 will sell more than the 360 by the end of 09

RE5 on the PS3 will sell over 1 mill WW in its 1st week   

Wii will not reach 50% in 09

Leo-j won't have a VGC debt by the end of 09


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Would like 2 know wat Kantor thinks the price cut 4 ps3 will be Q1 Q2 for his perdiction


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