Maybe depends on what happens.

difficult to say for sure, but so far It dosn't look like it will be anytime soon. Seems like lately the X360 has replaced the Wii as the go to holiday console to buy. From the way it looks the 360 will have another good year next year. If the PS3 is to overtake the 360 I personally highly doubt it would be next year, but time will tell.

MS has had a good year with the 360 following the redesign and Kinect intro, but both contributed. And as much as I don't agree with the current payoffs of Kinect in terms of game applications, I'm inclined to say that Kinect more than the redesign is what drew new customers to the Xbox brand.

But yes, the Kinect sensor is ungainly and could reasonably be repackaged into something less obtrusive. A wider angle lens would partially address the space issue, although the reality is playes still need X amount of space in which to reasonably move about, regardless of lens. 

As for the console itself, I won't bother to look up the iSuppli estimates, but I'm thinking the base 4GB model probably has a BOM as low as $100, certainly no higher than $150. At this point, there isn't a whole lot more shaving to be done. An internal PSU would actually make the device larger. As much as I don't like them, they may actually be cheaper to produce (PS2 added these after the slim redesigns).

My guess would be that the base model will never drop below $99 barring end product line inventory clearing, regardless of how simplified the manufacturing process is made.  

If there's any price reducing to be had, it will likely be in bundles (all models include Kinect or all models include HDD). $199 Xbox 360 w/ 320GB HDD or $199 w/ Kinect, which was not coincidentally what a bunch of people paid for their Black Friday bundles (at a loss to retailers). 

A good revision would be to give the Kinect sensor a physical user adjustable lens like the PS-Eye, even two settings would take away 70% of the user problems faced in terms of space as often people have the room but lack distance between the couch and TV. They could sort the cost issue out by simplifying the internal board layout and making it lighter, that ought to give them a good level of materials cost savings.

The reason why I favour an internal PSU is that they can revise the console to have a smaller footprint and lower their material and shipping costs without actually changing the external physical design. Personally I can't say how much they make on a console but with little information the best guess is that any changes to what amounts to a successful design will follow the K.I.S.S. principle especially as they would also be working on their next generation console. Effectively they probably won't change the outside design until they EOL the console, whilst internally further modification beyond the next chip shrink is probably unlikely due to diminishing returns and other priorities.

as i have for the past few years, i cast necro on this thread once again to share the joy of old predictions and where we stand today . this has been a truly interesting generation to watch, and it seems it is finally winding down. the cornucopia of games provided to us this generation is staggering, i feel like im running 12 months behind on playing all the games i want to get through. but more to the point where do we stand on the race, it is starting to look more and more like the fabled passing prophesy may happen, it will be interesting to see what tricks ms and sony have up their sleeve in the next year.

i have been periodically casting necro (normally at christmas) on this thread over the years waiting to see if it every happened
and the day is here, we can glance back at the past and see how thoughts on the subject moved through the years, and enjoy.
I hope to hear from sony for an official conformation of the move to #2

on/off topic it will be neat to see of both can get over 100 mil, seeing 3 consoles from one gen do that would be amazing

Glad I only gave X360 a 65% chance of remaining #2.

Only time will tell..

User was warned for this post.

yo_john117

I'm pretty sure it's already happened. 

AMG this post was made in 2011, you know the future!!!