At the rate of how sony isnt thinking market-wise.

Never.

Thing really have changed after the earnings reports.

I would say 2010, unless PS3 receives a price cut and KZ2 actually shifts consoles in which case late 2009 is possible.

wow how did i miss this thread in the fall... its amazing to see the changes in thoughts one holliday can cause

2009 really?!? you expect MS not to do anything if sony suddenly made up that 8 million unit gap in say 8 months ... so you believe onto of its normal sales the PS3 will push an extra million or so to beat the 360... 

or is it you think the 360 will be discontinued in the next few weeks? thats some major news if true 

how interesting...lol...change has come to amer..äh...consolewarz;)


"PS3 will overtake xbox360 in late 2009"- Pride goes before a fall.

You understand that in order for it to be in 2009 KZ2 would have to shift 8 million consoles, right?

At least if we assume that the PS3 will sell as well as 2008, around 10 million consoles. And 2008 saw the release of MGS4, LBP, MS2, R2 and lots of great multiplats like GTA4 and Fallout 3, so it already was an amzing line-up for PS3.

Exclusives for 2009: KZ2, inFamous, Heavy Rain, MAG (unlikely: GT5 and GoW3). Without the last two the line-up for 2009 is (imo) worse than 2008 (still great, don't get me wrong). Final Fantasy in Japan will help sell some consoles as well, but I won't expect a million or more.

The release of GT5 and GoW3 in combination with a pricecut would absolutely help PS3, but even that won't help sell 8 million more than a year with so many great games as 2008.

I don't expect PS3 ever to pass the 360, because:

a) The potential market will get progressively more casual as the gen progresses, since hardcore gamers will buy early in the gen
b) 360 as the HD competitor will likely always be cheaper than PS3, while 90% of the library is the same.

But if 360 starts dropping of and PS3 will increase or remain stable it will be 2011 earliest.

 

2009 will require a miracle for Sony combined with freefall och Microsoft, willn not happen.

Pricecut will make Sony pick up the phase, but will make them gain max 3 million (if the cut is in early april) if MS doesn't do anything later on. The games seems good but GoW3 wonät make it and FF will maybe, and only, make it to Japan. 2008 wasn't a bad game year for Sony, peak of MGS 4 ( bigger then all titles 2009) and many old PS-brands (even if they went multi) plus a dose of good followups/new ip of PS3 brands.

I suspect 2011-2012 but when that time comes the PS4 will be out and so will Xbox XXX

I noticed the charts are missing Nov and Dec 2008 were the 360 opened even a bigger lead on the PS3

ps3 will never catch up 360. definitively.