***Read Before Posting***

I noticed the prediction page was recently bumped on this matter and I started to look into the numbers with a particular interest in what progress the PS3 has made in catching up to the Xbox 360.

When looking over some of the predictions being made as well some of the comments I started to notice a pattern in which there seemed to be two entirely different views (not surprisingly).  However, in this case the numbers behind the predictions aren't as well documented or discussed as several other sales topics so I wanted to dig in and see what there was for support from the data.

Essentially the two views boil down like this (click to enlarge):

The PS3 Pessimist/360 Optimist sees things like this....

But the PS3 Optimist/360 Pessimist sees things more like this...

And finally a more neutral view...

So the question is simple, which view do you believe in/support, and why?

I have some pretty strong feelings about which is more meaningful, but I'll leave it open to discussion for the time being so I don't bias the discussion before it starts. 

Also if someone feels their view is not represented please feel free to make a graph of your own and share it with us (MSPaint Crayon-style graphs are fine~).

PS - Click here to enter a prediction.

The Ps3 will eventually overtake the 360 but by then Ms will soon be releasing the 720. Late 2010 is my guesstimate(october if you want to be more specific)

late 09

I like the first, I would essentially use this one

I dont like the 2nd one, percentages are less informative

The 3rd one is ok, but the non cumulative representation is harder to judge than the cumulative one (1st graph)


also, it is surprising to not see "price drop" on ur graph, particularly the 100$ one of the PS3 in november 2007 (40gb)

my prediction : march 2010
(I saied end 2009 but it was before the WW xbox360  price drop)

(sidequestion : do u do these graph online on VGChartz ? if yes, how ?)

Guys, try reading the OP.

I think each view matters quite a bit, but the 360 optimist and the PS3 optimist viewpoints, respectively, will not actually plot out who ends up "winning" over who between the HD consoles. That's something that will happen when it happens, and sales right now are too back-and-forth for any kind of meaningful prediction to be made.

Neutrality has its advantages, at least until we get a much wider perspective than we have now.

Well, I was thinking Q2 2009, but 360 has had a recent resurgence in America, and EU with the price cuts, and it threw me off by a few months. It'll probably still happen in 2009, but late 2009 now. Right around FFXIII or GT5 time if they launch around that time.

Since the Wii is number 1 by far, in my opinion the "will the PS3 overtake the 360 WW" question has become the most interesting piece of discussion, sales wise, this gen.

Hard to say, I think we´ll definitely see a PS3 price cut sometime next year, maybe finally bringing the system to $300....if that price works along with the PS3 gaining even more speed in EU and start having 10K/15k units sold weekly in Japan, then maybe it´ll be enough for it to overtake the 360 late 09/early 2010.

I side with the ps3 optimist point of view. The ps3 was on the upswing for the entire beginning of the year, and MGS4 only furthered that along, all despite being far more expensive than the 360 in all regions.

A price cut later (two in Europe), and the 360 was back on top for a short while, but the ps3 is already back to outselling it in Europe, and should be back on top in Japan this coming week. Microsoft has used price cuts to spur sales in these two regions about as much as they can by this point. The price is so low now that further cuts will do little if anything to boost sales. All they have left now is North America (though they'll receive a small spike in Japan from Star Ocean 4).

Compare this to the ps3, which is still rather expensive in all regions, and thus has plenty of room to spur sales via price cuts. Not to mention, the releases of Gran Turismo 5 and Final Fantasy XIII should provide reasonable spikes for the console, in Europe and Japan respectively.

By the end of this year, the ps3 should be back to outselling the 360 worldwide, thanks to Europe and Japan (though White Knight Chronicles will be necessary to keep the system afloat in Japan), and starting with it's next price cut, the gap in sales between the two consoles should become pretty substantial.

I'd say the ps3 surpassing the 360 by the end of 2009 isn't out of the question, especially if both GT5 and FFXIII hit before then (FFXIII in Japan, obviously).

From the first figure we can see that the gap now is what it was when the ps3 launched, which is about 5.5 million units.

I think ps3 might have a chance of overtaking the 360 sometime in mid 2010,that if ps3 gets a couple of price cuts and the 360 maintains it's current price till then or just gets minor cuts on it's accessories and better deals on it's SKUs(best case scenario).

Worst case scenario is that the gap will keep widening and then shrinking again but when one of the two is discontinued the gap will not be bigger than 5 million units.

well it's my first predictions in this site, Christmas 09 PS3 will overtake XBOX360