i think its will come near the 360 but will never overtake it.

I think predicting sales a few years ahead is just silly IF the variables of change and financial health of each company (ability to do cut prices and buy exclusivity).

1st of all ... MSFT has a lot of money, so much that if they feel Sony is invading and gaining market share ... price cut. As Sony cut into the early lead advantage shown by the 1sy poster after the months of June - September, MSFT announced a price cut.

2nd, the lost of exclusive games to the PS3. Final Fantasy used to be an exclusive and is now being released on X360 in Europe and US at the same time. Capcom announced no more 1 platform game.

3rd, Blu-Ray does not take off ... likely chance with the number of companies pushing digital distribution. Plus digital distribution is much more profitable for most companies (except Sony) so the moment it establishes a foot hold, Blu-Ray will have started its death knell.

Ok so the above 3 points are something to consider for an X360 perspective. The PS3 perspective:

1st ... Blu Ray takes off ... and becomes the next DVD. Will spur consoles sales.

2nd ... the new features such as Playstation Home, exclusive games of GT5 and older and more well known brand name will be pushing the Playstation throughout the end of 08 well into 2010.

3rd ... a larger hard drive, better technical specs, will allow it to perform much better than the X360 in the longer run.

Say it ain't so boss!

:'(

But it's only down 5.57 according to this.  Are you talking about shipped?  Cause it even shipped more than the 360 this quarter.

Here's how I think about it...

Blu-ray advantage: until Blu-ray becomes main-stream, the Blu-ray feature isn't as much of a factor as it could be. Also, by next Christmas we could be looking at a $150 standalone player. The days of PS3 enjoying price-parity with standalone Blu-ray players are over. CONCLUSION: some boost for the PS3, but steadily declining over time as standalone player prices drop.

Blockbuster game boosts: As each console's user base grows, it becomes more and more difficult to fuel big hardware boosts with blockbuster games as more people interested in those games will likely already have the console. This will be true for say, Halo 4, Gears 2, GOW2, etc. CONCLUSION: Some boost for both consoles, but declining as the bases grow.

Price-point advantage: I keep reading that the Arcade price-point isn't very relevant, because most people won't want a "crippled" console, i.e. - no hard drive. Yet those same posters say the 360 should be selling much better than it is because it's so much cheaper than the PS3. I agree with the former to some extent, although the NXE deal that will allow Arcade buyers to get a great deal on a 20 GB drive may make this less of an issue. If the Arcade is a "lame duck" version of the console, then the 360 isn't that much less expensive than the PS3. CONCLUSION: a $300 PS3 isn't going to set the world on fire, but it should provide a similar boost to the last 360 price cut.

Software libraries: both are becoming mature and fairly well rounded (with some noticeable exceptions), so I think this is no longer a factor against PS3 sales as it was in 2007. CONCLUSION: rapid gains year over year due to library maturity are over for both consoles.

OVERALL CONCLUSION: both consoles will enjoy good sales this Christmas and next year, but I don't see either doing anything spectacular saleswise unless something really unexpected occurs.

Because it's not out yet.  They wouldn't advertise this to non-gamers yet, as they might go out and pick up an Xbox now, not find any NXE or Avatars, and be upset with their purchase.  They'll wait until the 19th when it launches.

I do also think Home will push some PS3s, though that type of thing may be a harder sell wince more advanced versions of it already exist (like Second Life)

Both are very interesting views i think.

Personally i see this December as the last big sales month for all three consoles. PS3 will then go into it's 3rd year (released Nov 11 2006). The 360 will go into it's 4th year (released nov 22nd 2005). And the Wii will also go into it's 3rd (released nov 10th 2006). Meaning none of these consoles are no longer new. The sales reflect that. If you use the Wii for example it's sales have peaked. The problem is that those sales were gigantic so even when the Wii posts low scores they are massive compared to the 360 and PS3.

One thing i have noticed among PS3 fans is they always seem to use the "wait till xyz" line. Implying xyz will then start shiffting loads of consoles. Going into PS3 3rd year that has not quite happened as they predicted. So i can't help but feel these gigantic sales that they predict won't come in the numbers they think. The month to month numbers for all consoles has been down for a while now. Obviously the world econemy doesnt help.

So my opinion is this holiday the Wii will sell loads again. The 360 won't be far behind from that as with so many games out at xmas buying the cheaper one means you can get more. If you bought the 360 you could get like 4-6 games with it and still not pay more then a PS3 with no games cost. Ithink that will be a massive factor this year and believe it was like that last year.

Then next year around march we will see the same thing happen as last year. The question then is how much people will buy PS3's and 360's? I think the number will decrease for all and by the end of 2009 the PS3 will have clawed back 1m units. At that point i expect a price cut for all of them especially the ps3. After that i can't see much happening unless big games are announced. But the consoles will be nearing there 5th year and sales will be just a tiny fraction of the sales now. This is why i see this xmas as vital for the ps3 to beat the 360 by a big number because if they dont i can't see them pulling back 6m-7m units this generation.

So you see the 360 selling 7M or less next year then? That's a pretty odd thing to say, as it is likely to sell 11M this year, or at least 10.

And you see the 360 getting a 6.5M + lead over Ps3? That would mean the 360 outselling the Ps3 by almost a million in the last 10 weeks.

That's very different from what other people have predicted here:  http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=47529&start=0 , so maybe you could put your prediction there.

Edit: Holy crud, didn't see who I quoted

I think ioi may have typo'd the 6.5 number, either that or he knows something we don't =P

Late 08, Early 09.

Stop whoring out your threads.