I think predicting sales a few years ahead is just silly IF the variables of change and financial health of each company (ability to do cut prices and buy exclusivity).
1st of all ... MSFT has a lot of money, so much that if they feel Sony is invading and gaining market share ... price cut. As Sony cut into the early lead advantage shown by the 1sy poster after the months of June - September, MSFT announced a price cut.
2nd, the lost of exclusive games to the PS3. Final Fantasy used to be an exclusive and is now being released on X360 in Europe and US at the same time. Capcom announced no more 1 platform game.
3rd, Blu-Ray does not take off ... likely chance with the number of companies pushing digital distribution. Plus digital distribution is much more profitable for most companies (except Sony) so the moment it establishes a foot hold, Blu-Ray will have started its death knell.
Ok so the above 3 points are something to consider for an X360 perspective. The PS3 perspective:
1st ... Blu Ray takes off ... and becomes the next DVD. Will spur consoles sales.
2nd ... the new features such as Playstation Home, exclusive games of GT5 and older and more well known brand name will be pushing the Playstation throughout the end of 08 well into 2010.
3rd ... a larger hard drive, better technical specs, will allow it to perform much better than the X360 in the longer run.
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