Both are very interesting views i think.
Personally i see this December as the last big sales month for all three consoles. PS3 will then go into it's 3rd year (released Nov 11 2006). The 360 will go into it's 4th year (released nov 22nd 2005). And the Wii will also go into it's 3rd (released nov 10th 2006). Meaning none of these consoles are no longer new. The sales reflect that. If you use the Wii for example it's sales have peaked. The problem is that those sales were gigantic so even when the Wii posts low scores they are massive compared to the 360 and PS3.
One thing i have noticed among PS3 fans is they always seem to use the "wait till xyz" line. Implying xyz will then start shiffting loads of consoles. Going into PS3 3rd year that has not quite happened as they predicted. So i can't help but feel these gigantic sales that they predict won't come in the numbers they think. The month to month numbers for all consoles has been down for a while now. Obviously the world econemy doesnt help.
So my opinion is this holiday the Wii will sell loads again. The 360 won't be far behind from that as with so many games out at xmas buying the cheaper one means you can get more. If you bought the 360 you could get like 4-6 games with it and still not pay more then a PS3 with no games cost. Ithink that will be a massive factor this year and believe it was like that last year.
Then next year around march we will see the same thing happen as last year. The question then is how much people will buy PS3's and 360's? I think the number will decrease for all and by the end of 2009 the PS3 will have clawed back 1m units. At that point i expect a price cut for all of them especially the ps3. After that i can't see much happening unless big games are announced. But the consoles will be nearing there 5th year and sales will be just a tiny fraction of the sales now. This is why i see this xmas as vital for the ps3 to beat the 360 by a big number because if they dont i can't see them pulling back 6m-7m units this generation.
