Im personally expecting the Xbox 360 to outsell the PS3 by about 500,000k these holidays and continue outselling the PS3 until at least March 2009. But in anycase ignore that as it doesn't matter because what im saying next counts more.
The cut-off point for irrelevancy is between mid 2010-start of 2011. Anything after those dates or between them is getting a bunch of "So what?" thrown at them. So from now till mid 2010 there are 98 weeks or 88 weeks after the holidays.
Scenario 1: PS3 outsells the 360 by a million, will then need to sell at a rate of 51,136 for a mid 2010 passing of the 360 or 86,538 for end of 2009.
Scenario 2: PS3 outsells the 360 by 250,000, will then need to sell at a rate of 59,658 over 88 weeks or 100,961 over 52 weeks.
Scenario 3 Xbox 360 outsells PS3 by 250,000, PS3 will have a rate of 65,340 or 110,576
Scenarios 2/3 are more likely than scenario 1. The issue is that the PS3 must carry momentum into 2009 or its possible the 360 will continue to outsell or hold the PS3 down to a low margin and prevent the PS3 from ever passing it in a reasonable timeframe.
What makes it even more of an issue is that the PS3 isn't even outselling the 360 at present. So infact theres no guarentee that going into 2009 the PS3 will be outselling the 360. The margins and the averages are getting harder every week at this present rate, my optimistic timeframe for the PS3 is Mid 2010.
Tease.
(Former) Lead Moderator
