The problems for Sony are paramount in this equation. Things are only going well for Nintendo while things are going poorly for Sony. Trends are being established, and perceptions are being cemented. I have talked to enough gamers sitting on the fence to know that the PS3 has a lot of ground to make up in the popular perception, and in the end that is what matters.

The trend is for increased Nintendo domination of the world market. They are leading Sony by a margin of around 246%. The public really has spoken as to which will be the more popular machine. The other posters are saying it is possible for Nintendo to increase that margin to 300%. That is an increase of merely half a machine per PS3 sold. Given the current market situation you cannot see that as much of a stretch.

Further more the reality is that Nintendo is really supply constrained. While their machine suffers from a demand that exceeds supply. Most would suggest that the Wii is very popular whereas the public is not very fond of the PS3. What does not help things is the fact that Nintendo has and is increasing production. They might even be holding back units for the holidays. When something consistently sells out I assume like most people that it will keep that trend until the markets desire is satisfied.

That desire is only going to get stronger compared to the PS3 this holiday season. Nintendo has a far better lineup. Microsoft has an even better lineup then that. You can cite all the new licenses you like such as lair, but do you really expect them to compete with a Mario in the public imagination. Mario has serious sales power. Master Chief has serious sales power. Sony simply has no good answer for the consumer. I could conceive of a trend reversing however I need to see a justification beyond a mid summer sale, and a media format. The stand alone players will be cheaper come the tail end of the year. Then consumers have to justify the added price for the console component.

Further more how can Sony outdo a launch push a year later after their console has received such negative marks in the public perception. Where will they find this hype, and more importantly demand. The simple answer is they won't they have nothing to actually pitch. The machine did not sell on its name, and people only remember the bad things they have heard. How is Sony going to convince the public to buy their machine over Nintendos or Microsofts? How would the average consumer justify the purchase?

We have to pay attention to the trends over the past few weeks. Yes the sales cut jump started sales. However the PS3 has started to drift south again. The holidays will be worse if Microsoft cuts prices. Their games get good reviews, and they bring out a solid add campaign. Nintendo keeps increasing estimates and production. That should easily drive down PS3 sales in the Americas where they have been the strongest.

I would just like an explanation as to where these sales will come from other then a general belief that sales improve over the holidays. Thats all I can see being the rational.

I would say March 2008. I think Nintendo is making more units then they are letting on.

 But a moment ago you said when the PS3 hits 8 million, the Wii will hit 14 million.  Now you're saying it's 16-17 million (much better prediction by the way but still a bit low).  

22 million vs 8 million assumes the Wii will sell about 3x the rate of the PS3 world wide. This seems to depend entirely on Nintendo's manufacturing capability. We don't know how fast the Wii will sell if Nintendo can produce more?

Sony's PS3 sales are up right now. When the 'clearance sale' ends, if the PS3 goes back to $600, it's going to be a long, painful holiday for Sony. What's worse, sales may be even slower in early '08 than they were in early '07 when the PS3 was also not supply constrained.

I believe that if the PS3 does not get a price drop below $500, it will be pretty close, assuming Nintendo gets their production to levels they're obviously anticipating if they want to have ~22 million total produced by April. 

well i think after the holidays that the demand for the wii will go down slightly.
I think the PS3's average week sales will be higher from january than there weekly sales now.
I think in the holiday season, november 1st to december 31st, the Wii can only outsell the PS3 2:1 max.

Thats my reasons for the ps3 reaching 8m before the wii gets to 22m.
I predict that when the ps3 reaches 8m the wii will be at 17-18m.

The Wii stockpiling should make 22 million before PS3's 8 million quick work. The "Big Three" coming before the end of the year should be a big help.

 Are you standing by this leo-j?  Or are you going with your 16-17m vs 8m prediction?

Because honestly, there is a very good chance the Wii could be at 14m at the end of October. 

marcus1979 said: you don't wanna know what I thought it was.

I was right there with ya

PS3 AM WIN! WII TEH DOOMZORZ!

I'M SELLING MY STOCK IN DUCT TAPE, STAT! 

THe big 3 can only help the big 3 in software sales. Even is nintendo is stock pilling that meants that months leading to christmas Aug, Sept, and OCt will have lower units in stores for the Nov, Dec stock pile sales.

according to alot of predictions Wii should sell another 5million WW this year and the PS3 should sell another 2.5 million.

 I predict that the PS3 will sell 8 million by end of March when MGS, GTA4, LBP, DMC, Killzone 2, Infamose, Soul Calibure 4, Tekken, Fallout 3 are Marked in for releases.

I expect about 4 of these games to be delayed into spring and summer but these games justify a PS3 purchase after christmas unlike 07 jan - mar that only saw Virtua fighter 5 and Motorstorm.

 During the Same time frame The Wii only has Wiifit and Mario Kart. not that it matters until they Meet Demand better than they are currently. the 2008 line up for Wii looks weak enough to slow demand Finally, then again even bad games sell on the Wii, so Who knows.

No Im not standing by this. Im going with 16-17m vs 8m ps3.

Sounds good, it was just that the first one seemed a bit crazy to me...even for you =)