Sounds like you were over your head.

I still don't see how the Wii sells only 5 million more consoles for the rest of the year. 

There are 5 more months in the year. The Wii has already been selling at a rate of 1 million per month. This means that you're assuming that the Wii sells at exactly the same rate now as it will for the rest of the year, which means you are assuming that Nintendo is not stockpiling at all, and that there will be no Christmas increase of any kind.

Your estimate is the absolute lowest possible estimate for the year.

Man, I'm thinkning you meant from today-Jan 1 08

To be clear, Nintendo's quarterly report said 16.5 million Wiis would be shipped from April 1 2007 to March 31 2008 (the fiscal year).

Through June 30, 9.27 million had been shipped already .

5.84 million had been shipped through March 31.

Originally, Nintendo projected 14.0 million to be shipped from April 07' to March 08'.

16.5+5.87 = 22.37 million Wiis shipped by March 31, 2008 if Nintendo meets projections. I think Nintendo will beat their projections slightly, which is why I have been saying ~ 20 million sold to gamers by December 31, 2007. I suspect the March 31 2008 total will end up near 24 million (remember Wii Fit is coming in Japan this year, and it is potentially the biggest thing in the history of the industry, and Mario Kart which has huge selling power is coming to the USA in Q1 2008).

 sorry for being a realist but if the wii is selling during regular months of the year then its like its christmas all year round. How many Extra Wii's do you think they are gunna pop out with all of a sudden. just like when they stockpile for new releases It means that they cant send as many the weeks before. They can only Sells as many as they make. Thats why i still say 5 million. If they somehow get production levels higher then thats a different factor. When i say 5 million It not that im saying demand get any lower its that is how much they average making anyhow. to say they will sell another 10 million out of nowhere would make no sense. 2 million a month for the next 5 month is un heard of. Not that im say thats what you expect but I have seen some retarded prediction that people here agree with.

sooo let me get this straight if this is what you belive to be true and you back up you projection with fiscal numbers. from Jan 1, 2008 to March 31 2008 only 2.37 million Wii's will be sold. Thats actually more insane than other projections. you prolly dont mean it that way but also that would mean that there is No Production Problems and Nintendo is intentially holding back 1 million Wii's a month to keep the demand high until november and then they will unleash 5 million wii's.

That kinda sounded like a conspiracy theory right there.

I say they can only Sell what they can make. They need more factories to produce Wii's and fast to accomidate the prjections. 

Huh? Reread what I wrote - I said I expect Nintendo to have shipped ~20 million by the end of 2007 and beat their shipment estimate for the fiscal year. That means I expect shipments of roughly ~ 4 million Jan-March 2008 since I expect to hit 24 million units shipped (total) by March 31, 2008.

@grimygunz,

You have to really read carefully because of the differences in shipped/sold to retail/sold to consumer. It is very easy to get confused, although I will admit that post was hard to follow. Normally TheSource is better about keeping the different data sets separated but I think he was trying to make a point involving both sets of data.