Which will happen first - PS3 @ 4 million, or Wii @ 10 million?

[Dodece]

The problems for Sony are paramount in this equation. Things are only going well for Nintendo while things are going poorly for Sony. Trends are being established, and perceptions are being cemented. I have talked to enough gamers sitting on the fence to know that the PS3 has a lot of ground to make up in the popular perception, and in the end that is what matters.

The trend is for increased Nintendo domination of the world market. They are leading Sony by a margin of around 246%. The public really has spoken as to which will be the more popular machine. The other posters are saying it is possible for Nintendo to increase that margin to 300%. That is an increase of merely half a machine per PS3 sold. Given the current market situation you cannot see that as much of a stretch.

Further more the reality is that Nintendo is really supply constrained. While their machine suffers from a demand that exceeds supply. Most would suggest that the Wii is very popular whereas the public is not very fond of the PS3. What does not help things is the fact that Nintendo has and is increasing production. They might even be holding back units for the holidays. When something consistently sells out I assume like most people that it will keep that trend until the markets desire is satisfied.

That desire is only going to get stronger compared to the PS3 this holiday season. Nintendo has a far better lineup. Microsoft has an even better lineup then that. You can cite all the new licenses you like such as lair, but do you really expect them to compete with a Mario in the public imagination. Mario has serious sales power. Master Chief has serious sales power. Sony simply has no good answer for the consumer. I could conceive of a trend reversing however I need to see a justification beyond a mid summer sale, and a media format. The stand alone players will be cheaper come the tail end of the year. Then consumers have to justify the added price for the console component.

Further more how can Sony outdo a launch push a year later after their console has received such negative marks in the public perception. Where will they find this hype, and more importantly demand. The simple answer is they won't they have nothing to actually pitch. The machine did not sell on its name, and people only remember the bad things they have heard. How is Sony going to convince the public to buy their machine over Nintendos or Microsofts? How would the average consumer justify the purchase?

We have to pay attention to the trends over the past few weeks. Yes the sales cut jump started sales. However the PS3 has started to drift south again. The holidays will be worse if Microsoft cuts prices. Their games get good reviews, and they bring out a solid add campaign. Nintendo keeps increasing estimates and production. That should easily drive down PS3 sales in the Americas where they have been the strongest.

I would just like an explanation as to where these sales will come from other then a general belief that sales improve over the holidays. Thats all I can see being the rational.

I would say March 2008. I think Nintendo is making more units then they are letting on.